This is actually a disadvantage for smartphones ...

What this means is that the market for smartphone games is spread across 4 different operating systems (ios, Windows 7, Android, and blackberry) and for each of those operating systems there are several hardware variations that produce systems with significantly different capabilities. You end up with a splintered market where you need to piece together dozens of platforms to have a market that is similar in size to one of the portable gaming systems.

Some comments here seem to ignore reality completely, it's almost a joke that they were made to begin with. 3 things which come to mind:

-the 5-15 min short burst of playing when you have a spare moment isn't exclusive to phones. Just look at mario kart DS and super mario, 2 of the best selling games, and you can do just that on them.

-people won't want to pay 30£ for a game, instead opting for cheap 1-5£ games on phones. Yeah, those 10 million pokemon B/W copies at 30£ are just my imagination playing tricks on me, or the 25 million NSMB as well.

-why do some people act as though mobile phone games magically appeared with the Iphone? Again, me playing snake on my phone was what? a hallucination?

We have already made the switch.  That is 4 3DS/NGP that wont be sold to this family.  My youngest 2 boys (13 and 9) will use the DS they have until we get them cell phones.  Not iPhones, but same difference.  My oldest and myself already use our phones.

Now we use portable gaming devices primarily for travel.  I know a good deal of other parents that do the same and not many of them plan to spend over $200 for a device to keep the kids busy while they are on the road or spending the day in airports/airplanes.

I see quite a few parents handing their small children iPhone/iPods to play children's games or watch children's videos on them in public as a means to keep them pacified.

You are clearly among that growing demographic that is diverting consumer spending away from dedicated handheld gaming devices.

The argument that this isn't somehow a common occurrence is based on the belief that one has to buy their child their own media/gaming device when this just isn't the case until they're old enough to be out in public on their own. At that point, do you buy your kid a $250-300 gaming device, or do you buy them a media device or phone where you have more control over what's played on that device as a parent?

Given the choice, which tweens would choose a Nintendo handheld over an iPod or better yet, an iPhone?

You made some good points.

iOS is far more geared towards gaming than android. Android phones come in all variations and specs and some of the most popular models have screens far to small to be considered good for gaming. As have been always highlighted fragmentation is Androids biggest problem as a gaming platform.

iPhone games on the other hand are more like DS or PSP games.  By this I mean 99% of games will work on all current iphones and slightly less on all models. This makes iPhone the biggest threat.

One other thing is that research shows iPhone owners tend to have more money to spend on games and apps than Andorid phone owners, maybe this is because you can get almost any Andorid phone free on a contract but you have to cough up a couple hundred for an iphone meaning iPhone owners tend to be better off financially. This matters.

I agree Sony or Nintendo won't go away overnight. Sony in particular has now positioned themselves to combine the two markets into one with it's PSPhone. Sony and Google may cook up something in the future as I heard NGP uses Android.

Nintendo is hoping to stay ahead with inovations like 3D.

Ultimately I think both will co-exist and be successful together.

History is listed with hundreds of  technologies that were suppose to kill an other. ..TV to Kill radio, VHS players to kill cinemas etc., the cellphone was to kill the lanline, the sat nav....

now it's smartphones to kill handheld-consoles.

Some do some don't.

Good luck with that ...

I have a co-worker who decided that after his son broke his second iPhone in a year that it was a really bad idea to give a 16 year old a $500 smart-phone; but I'm certain it will work out better for you. After all, teenagers are known to show an amazing amount of care and respect to their possessions (especially those that are given to them by their parents); and it is probably a perfect idea to give them one of the most expensive and fragile phones on the market.

Ok so yes it will steal a pieceof the pie?

But will it totaly make that (market) vanish?   

Not anytime soon. Maybe 10 years down the road?

I would argue that Iphone will never be a market leader cause its Adult pruduct that has a few apps for kids..

To me Games are very close to cartoons. To be market leader you need to targuet kids first, then have a few supporting games for adults.  

That should be what this gen teaches us from its results.

So you find an instance of one 16 year old kid who sounds like he should be wearing a helmet in public or has sausages for fingers and suddenly the iPhone, iPod Touch and pretty much any touch screen device is now too fragile to be used by anyone who doesn't understand the concept of "expensive things cost money to replace."

I think just any 16 year old kid who's ever had to mow lawns or work a crappy weekend job at retail to buy something nice shows "an amazing amount of care and respect to their posessions."

I let my 3 year old nephew play with my iPhone any time he asks for it and he hasn't broken it or dropped it even though he barely understands the concept of money.

A teenager buying their own "stuff" is different from a parent buying their teenager stuff ... and a parent who decides that no handhelds are going to be in his house and his children will have iPhones will likely be buying these products for their children.

Beyond that, having been a teenager myself, dealt with enough teenagers in my life, and known enough parents it has become clear that anything a teen has is far more likely to be broken or lost then it is for their parents. Some of this is simply because of the activities the two groups take part in, for example a teenager is far more likely to break their iPhone while skate-boarding than their parent is walking to their car.

The handheld, market may do the same thing the Home consule market did this generation.  

New competion move in. Sony alter's there PsP to be more hightek, and adds phone

Sony/apple sell 50 million gaming units each. Nintendo keeps going on what has sustained it in the first place

sells 80million  3DS.  

that's a far more realistic view then to think Iphone will become Market leaders.

Yes there going to steal some of that pie, from Nintendo and sony.  

If Nintendo sells 80million 3DS will they have lost?   yes

They will still be the market leaders though.