really? hvd sounds like overkill, expensive overkill. i would prefer them to keep the cost down using the more reasonable bluray, rather than using expensive hdv disks.

to give an idea of the price of one hdv disk, in 2007 it cost ~150USD per disk, probably falling, but still it wont be down to a reasonable amount in time

IMO. Wii2 will have 1080P at 60fps and 3D capable.

They don't need to go higher than that since we're still stuck at 1080P on the TV end and will probably stay there for a decade before getting higher res.

Sony and M$ may be able to prolong the generation with price-cuts for 2-3 more years.  However, I wonder if game sales will continue to drop which will force them to release the next gen early.

The Wii can only hold out for another 1-2 years because 3rd party support has all but vanished. The Wii is just too underpowered compared to its competitiors.  I think that a Wii2 could easily be significantly more powerful than the PS3-- using a custom-disc drive as opposed to blue-ray will also keep the costs down.

What should be more interesting is Apple.  Apple TV is not that popular yet, but it provides a platform for Apple to introduce home-console gaming to the masses. 

I think we will definitely see new consoles from all three, and I even don't think that the Wii2 will be first. Microsoft will try to be the first again. Many people don't thought about Donkey Kong Country Returns as a big game before its release and its big success. The next real big game will be Zelda, but nintendo will announce other games soon after the 3ds release in US and europe.

Kind of a tricky point in time this...

But unless Ninty has some mind blowing revelation on the horizon then I expect they will try and push the Wii as thier main console for a while to come yet.

Even if Wii 2 launches in 2014 it could still be first to market though is the thing.

I still predict:

Wii-2 : Spring 2013

X720:  Summer 2014

PS4: Winter 2014

With Wii2 being shown at E32012, and 720/PS4 at E32013.