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Forums - Sales - is this the biggest week of the year in term of sales?

tokilamockingbrd said:
The machines that are built today are going to be sold in the US sometime in January ok. But nintendo tripled their distrubtion force, so some of the ones that would have not made it by Christmas will, but that means that they won't be here later because Nintendo is not going to keep their disrubution force tripled for long.

Please, look at the DS last January they did the same thing with the DS then, there were only 40k selling for 3 weeks in a row before it normalized. The Wii will normalize just before SSBB (I think they planned that ahead of time)

Ok well a few things, first of all, what is your source on the tripling of the distribution "force"?

Second, I do agree that they probably accelerated the supply chain to push as many to stores before the Holidays are over as possible. But realize that at most we are talking about a weeks worth of shipments they will squeeze in before they hit the point that they are waiting on production again, which would be at most 0.5m, which would be split amongst the major regions. Either way it won't interfere with the normal shipments in January, especially with the Voucher program going and them not wanting to come up short on those.

As for the DS last January, that is normal for a console to dip after the holidays. It has nothing to do with supply, its just people not wanting to shop after X-mas...and really can you blame them?

In any case, if you look at this chart, you will see that after the holidays last year the DS quickly returns to pre-Holiday sales in the Others regions, in the US sales do seem to dip, but in Japan sales are still up. Basically the US sales were in a lull for post-Holidays, and like normal the Japanese continue strong sales a little longer so they were getting the extra units. Nothing abnormal there.



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Around the Network

http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/newsArt.cfm?artid=14985

it is mentioned in this article, it is from reggie's mouth so I guess it can be trusted : )



psn- tokila

add me, the more the merrier.

Japan is closer to the source of the supply chain, all of the factorys are in Japan. Nintendo can most likely produce them and get them to retailers in less than 3 days in Japan, for the US this have to ship it overseas which takes a while, then it has to enter the NOA supply management system in Washinton, which is then shipped overland, wwhich could take another week to get it NY.
I would bet that Nintendo was sending ALL of the systems it produced in Nov. to US and Europe thus the weak sales in Japan, and now Japan is consuming the Wii's hot off the press which mean none are gonna be on boats for a week or 2 and during that gap, that gap is what I am talking about... It might be 2-3 after Christmas until the gap hits. That is why they did the Rain Checks, they know Jan is gonna be SUPER Wii Dry...



psn- tokila

add me, the more the merrier.

"To help meet the holiday demand, Nintendo has tripled its distribution workforce. However, Nintendo is only still outputting 1.8 million Wiis a month (more than half of that figure was sold in the U.S. during November), so that means the Wii consoles available are just getting to store shelves more quickly."

I assume this is the part you were referring to? 

If so, it says that Nintendo has tripled its distribution workforce.   That means Wii, DS, Hardware peripherals, and Software are all getting the benefit of this.  So yes while it does mean faster shipments it doesn't necessarily equate to triple speed.

 

Good article though, not sure why I missed that one. 



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tokilamockingbrd said:
Japan is closer to the source of the supply chain, all of the factorys are in Japan. Nintendo can most likely produce them and get them to retailers in less than 3 days in Japan, for the US this have to ship it overseas which takes a while, then it has to enter the NOA supply management system in Washinton, which is then shipped overland, wwhich could take another week to get it NY.
I would bet that Nintendo was sending ALL of the systems it produced in Nov. to US and Europe thus the weak sales in Japan, and now Japan is consuming the Wii's hot off the press which mean none are gonna be on boats for a week or 2 and during that gap, that gap is what I am talking about... It might be 2-3 after Christmas until the gap hits. That is why they did the Rain Checks, they know Jan is gonna be SUPER Wii Dry...

very well thought out  good job:)



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tokilamockingbrd said:
Japan is closer to the source of the supply chain, all of the factorys are in Japan. Nintendo can most likely produce them and get them to retailers in less than 3 days in Japan, for the US this have to ship it overseas which takes a while, then it has to enter the NOA supply management system in Washinton, which is then shipped overland, wwhich could take another week to get it NY.
I would bet that Nintendo was sending ALL of the systems it produced in Nov. to US and Europe thus the weak sales in Japan, and now Japan is consuming the Wii's hot off the press which mean none are gonna be on boats for a week or 2 and during that gap, that gap is what I am talking about... It might be 2-3 after Christmas until the gap hits. That is why they did the Rain Checks, they know Jan is gonna be SUPER Wii Dry...

 Who runs a supply chain like that?  The basic underlying principle of a supply chain is a "Chain".  You want a steady stream of supply to all regions with demand.  You don't want "broken links" in your "chain".  Thats the point of the analogy.  The whole idea is keeping steady supply to the places that need it most.

 

Sorry I'm not buying that at all, it is fundamentally flawed and I have a very hard time believing they would let such huge mistakes go unchecked. 



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kirby007 said:
tokilamockingbrd said:
Japan is closer to the source of the supply chain, all of the factorys are in Japan. Nintendo can most likely produce them and get them to retailers in less than 3 days in Japan, for the US this have to ship it overseas which takes a while, then it has to enter the NOA supply management system in Washinton, which is then shipped overland, wwhich could take another week to get it NY.
I would bet that Nintendo was sending ALL of the systems it produced in Nov. to US and Europe thus the weak sales in Japan, and now Japan is consuming the Wii's hot off the press which mean none are gonna be on boats for a week or 2 and during that gap, that gap is what I am talking about... It might be 2-3 after Christmas until the gap hits. That is why they did the Rain Checks, they know Jan is gonna be SUPER Wii Dry...

very well thought out good job:)


 No its horribly thought out.  If I am shipping to the other side of the galaxy every day it might take a long time for the first shipment to get there but once it does every day after that they will recieve a shipment because I have been sending them one every day. 

That is the basic idea of a supply chain, keep the product flowing, you can redirect product when/if needed and situationally speed up the chain, but you don't intentionally break the chain.   



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The reason Nintendo is running their supply chain like this is so they can MAXIMIZE sale during the holidays, mainly to keep people happy. So Basically if you think about 2 months of production are hitting Other and NA at the same time right now. And what we WOULD be getting in about 3-4 weeks is being sold to Japan at the Peak time. I think it is genious. They found a way to DOUBLE the availability of Wiis in Dec. for christmas. Jan in US is going to be like Nov. was in Japan... Sparse... They suffered early we suffer late, by the time SSBB comes out it will be equalized. I think Nintendo has the BEST management I have ever seen. Sony has done this too, but they did not plan ahead and to use costly Air Transport to do it.

Sqrl, I am not trying to argue, but I will be going for a PHD in Economics, this is what I do.



psn- tokila

add me, the more the merrier.


"The reason Nintendo is running their supply chain like this is so they can MAXIMIZE sale during the holidays, mainly to keep people happy. So Basically if you think about 2 months of production are hitting Other and NA at the same time right now."

This defies logic.  Where does this second month of production come from?  The only place the additional supply can come from is stockpiled supply from earlier in the year and then we are back to the fact that the supply would already be stored in the market it was destined for and wouldn't require more than 2-3 day delay once they wanted to ship it to retailers.

"And what we WOULD be getting in about 3-4 weeks is being sold to Japan at the Peak time. I think it is genious."

There is absolutely no need for this, a standard supply chain (which is what they are most likely using), would have shipments hitting all regions every week.  It would also have stockpiled product in the regions ahead of time for artificial increases like we are going to see this week.

"They found a way to DOUBLE the availability of Wiis in Dec. for christmas. Jan in US is going to be like Nov. was in Japan... Sparse... They suffered early we suffer late, by the time SSBB comes out it will be equalized. I think Nintendo has the BEST management I have ever seen. Sony has done this too, but they did not plan ahead and to use costly Air Transport to do it."

The ONLY way they can double availability for a month is with stockpiling. This theory that they can suddenly have double the supply is beyond a stretch, its downright impossible.  You cannot just pull an extra month of production out of nowhere.  To be blunt I find it mindboggling that you don't see it.

"Sqrl, I am not trying to argue, but I will be going for a PHD in Economics, this is what I do."

First of all, even if you already had a PHD I wouldn't just take your word on the matter.  Second you don't have a PHD yet and from what you said earlier have had as much formal training on the topic as I have.   



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Also, I realize you are saying they are moving units normally intended for January to December, but there is simply no way they would be able to move more than 2 weeks of production for January into December. That hardly equates to a doubling, and it is far less effective than shipping the unsold units from Aug, Sept, and Nov.



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