[ON SPOT OR CLOSE PREDICTION / GT5 Shipped by Mar 2013] I Believe Sony Will Ship 10 Million Copies Of GT5 Before 2 Years. And You?

badgenome

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badgenome on 25 May 2011

I have no doubt they will manage to ship that many, even if they have to ship it to that landfill where Atari shipped all their E.T. cartridges.

ethomaz

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ethomaz on 25 May 2011

kowenicki said:

my point is that Sony are likely to ensure this hits 10m whatever it takes by way of discounting or bundling...

I disagree... if Sony wanted to hit 10 million no matter what the game was already being sold with discounts or price cut... but not GT5 is full priced yet.

Black Ops and Reach already received two or three price cuts since launch.

I guess Sony is focusing on profits... so no heavy bundle for GT5 after all... I believe the game should reach 10 million eventually for its own legs.

I'm wainting the PD update it site this or next week (Sony FY results is today)... I guess after update GT5 will need near 3 m to top 10m and there are a second holiday season for it.

Like I said before if VGC undetracked GT5 by 200-300k last quarter the weekly sales grow from 10k to 25-30k.

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Lostplanet22 on 25 May 2011

When does Sony results come in exactly? Considering it is a Japanese company wouldn't we have it yet? (it is almost 26th May)

ethomaz

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ethomaz on 25 May 2011

Lostplanet22 said:

When does Sony results come in exactly? Considering it is a Japanese company wouldn't we have it yet? (it is almost 26th May)

In Japan today at 18:30... tomorrow 10:30 GMT.

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ethomaz on 25 May 2011

kowenicki said:

Well if you are asking will it reach 10m by then with no bundling then my response is... no... zero chance.

Of course this is all predicated on VGC data and if that is miles off following tomorrow's releases than you may be right.

But I seem to remember we had a similar discussion prior to the last shipment info release and you were wrong then too.

What? The last shipment was better than I predicted... I was happy to be wrong.

And VGC updated their number over 500k due the last shipment.

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ethomaz on 25 May 2011

kowenicki said:

We def had a discussion where you anticipated MUCH higher shipments that didnt materialise... if it wasnt for the crappy search function here I'd prove it to you.

Ohhh... the first shippment in November ... not the second in Dec 31th.

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ethomaz on 25 May 2011

kowenicki said:

ethomaz said:

kowenicki said:

We def had a discussion where you anticipated MUCH higher shipments that didnt materialise... if it wasnt for the crappy search function here I'd prove it to you.

Ohhh... the first shippment in November ... not the second in Dec 31th.

No.. the December one.

et.... voila..found it. You expected over 7m.... it was 6.3m.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3850065

Ethomaz 6th january 2011:

For me is petty clear.

Sony give us the only number they have now... 5.5M shipped figure of the first two weeks after launch... the same with PS3, Sony don't have the number yet.

For the financial quarter the actual number will be revelead and my point is how much the second shipment is? 1.5M, 2M, 3??? I don't know but I expected number over 7 million shipped for 31th Dec.

LOL I didn't remember that... you got me .

But now my prediction is much better .

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ethomaz on 10 September 2011

For @atma998 the GT4's shipped data for Americas.

GRAN TURISMO 4 AMERICAS SHIPPED DATA
September 2005	2,030k	6 months after launch
June 2006	2,280k	1 year and 3 months after launch
September 2006	2,410k	1 year and 6 months after launch
December 2006	2,630k	1 year and 9 months after launch
June 2007	2,690k	2 years and 3 months after launch
September 2007	2,810k	2 years and 6 months after launch
December 2007	2,870k	2 years and 9 months after launch
March 2008	2,900k	3 years after launch
June 2008	2,930k	3 years and 3 months after launch
December 2008	2,960k	3 years and 9 months after launch
December 2009	3,040k	4 years and 9 months after launch
December 2010	3,060k	5 years and 9 months after launch

GT5 shipped 1,580k in the first month. Waiting more shipped data for comparison (updated the site PD).

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ethomaz on 10 September 2011

For @atma998 again .

You just made assuptions based in nothing...

Week 10: 1,575,500 (GT5) > 1,531,116 (GT4)
Week 15: 1,661,128 (GT5) > 1,588,242 (GT4)

I can made another Weeks comparison but I just not have time to check my old comments with numbers.

And remeber... GT5 is not ajusted after the December 30th because PD not updated their site yet.

The next number I have for GT4 in VGC is...

Week 56: 1,897,195 (GT4) (after the first holidays)

GT5 is at Week 41 and sold 1,795,343... 90k in 15 weeks? In the holidays period? Face it... GT5 just sold better than GT4 in Americas