for the poll ">" and "<" means by more than .2 million. the equal sign "=" means within .2 million sales
i recently made a thread, pitting Uncharted and Gears of war meta score. and in the discussion Uncharted's life time sales came up. and i said i predict that Uncharted 1 will sell 4 million lifetime and Uncharted 2 will sell >5.8 million LT.
i got a few scoffs at that prediction. but i think it can happen. so im going to analyize their sales and patterns.
the first chart breaks down their sales by year. then for years that are not complete, i estimated the sales by dividing the previous years sales by the year before's to get the rate of decline. i then multiplied the previous year by the rate.
for example to get U1 sales for 2011, i divided .6 by .7 and got .85. then .85 times .6 and got .51.
| Uncharted 1 | 2007 week (1-6) | 2008 (7-58) | 2009 (55-110) | 2010 (111-162) | 2011 (est. at decline rate) |
| sales (millions) | .61 | 1.52 | .7 | .6 | .1 (.51) total- 3.94 |
| Uncharted 2 | 2009 (1-12) | 2010 (13-64) | 2011 (est) (65-116) | 2012 (est) (117-168) | 2013 (est) |
| sales (millions) | 2.68 | 1.65 | .1 (1.02) | (.63) |
(.39) total- 6.37 |
this 2nd chart breaks down their sales by how many years they have been out (so the sales per every 52 weeks)
to find incomplete years for drakes fortune i used the same method. but for U2 i had to do something different since it doesnt have complete data for 2nd year. so i added up U2 sales from the first 6 weeks of 2010 (.24 million) and then added up its total sales in 2011 which is 6 weeks (.1). i then divided .1 by .24 to get rate of decline.
| year | 1 (week ending 52) | 2 (week 104) | 3 (156) | 4 (208) | TOTAL | |
| UDF | 1.79 | .86 | .68 | .2 (week 170) | 3.53 | |
| pace | .54 | 3.87 | ||||
| U2:AT | 3.7 | .73 (week 70) | 4.43 | |||
| pace | 1.54 | .65 | .27 | - | 6.16 |
so what do you guys think will uncharted 1 and 2 sell as much as i think they will. or am i way off.
how much do you guys think they will sell, also predict uncharted 3 sales.
my predictions are
Uncharted 1: 4.0 million
Uncharted 2: 5.8 million
Uncharted 3: 6.5 million
