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Forums - General - can people in Yamen, Lybia and Bahrain do it?

The country I really want to see revolt is Iran or Syria. Though the revolution in Iran was quashed pretty quickly by the Revolutionary Guards. It seems other then Egypt people are getting gunned down in every protest in every country. I had hoped the people would risk it and continue to fight on but in Iran it seems their revolution was stopped dead in its tracks.



-JC7

"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer

 

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Rath said:
Kasz216 said:
 

That is completely false.

The US supported him vs a power vacuum/other dictatorship.  However they're preference has aways been a Democracy.  (Well since the end of the cold war.)

Hell it's been the stated preference, and the US has funded and created MANY democratic instutitions in Egypt.

Ever since the end of the Cold War the US policy has been to greatly urge their middleastern allies to make more and more democratic reforms and eventually give up power.

As soon as the protests started Obama was talking to Mubarak telling him to stand down.  Before there was any indication the protests would succeed.  Washington Officials were giving the army full support in their upheavel. (the second in command was actually in washinton at the time.)

This was more or less EXACTLY what the US wanted.  To believe otherwise is to be completely ignorant of middle eastern foreign policy and be stuck in an outdated BS Cold War mindset. 

This is basically exactly the right way to foster democracy in nations with dictators.

I'm not saying that America was anti-democracy. They just wanted slowly introduced democracy under a stable dictatorship. America was pro-reform, but they were anti-revolution.

The American government at the start of the protests were calling for Mubarak to implement the reforms, not for him to stand down. Even late in the piece they were very tepid on the idea, and never called for it directly.

Publically.  However if you really following the story you'd know that privately they were suggesting a handover to the military as soon as the whole thing started and DID want him to step down.  The rumors for the US plan to transition to democracy in Januray the day after the protests started ended up being EXACT plan that was used.

Things went exactly to US and Obama's plans.  They just weren't widely expressed plans.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markmardell/2011/01/obamas_behind-the-scenes_effor.html


The US didn't much care how it happnened.  They just weren't expecting people to protest angrily to have a transition like that.  Really you need to have a deeper and more thoughtful look to understand foreign policy now a days.



sad.man.loves.vgc said:
Chairman-Mao said:

LMAO I love how you managed to mis-spell 2/3 of the countries. Libya and Yemen. 


in Arabic we say "Al-Yaman" :)


Fair enough! I thought you just didn't know how to spell (like people who spell "lose" as "loose") but my mistake. 



Death toll in Libya seems to be up to 200.

Bahrain monarchs seem "screwed" more of less being forced to hold restraint from now on and the opposition party is being pushed by the students to not negotatiate.

Yemen... sounds promising... with the "President" making a Mubarack like "I won't run again" proclimation.



Kasz216 said:
Sheeplord said:
Kasz216 said:

[Cut]


The problem with Libya is that it JUST recently entered the international community, actually due to the strongarm tactics of the Bush administration along with others factors.  There is no way for the international community to intervene... they are fully willing to use full force and to go back in on themselves.  They'll end up like the protestors in Iran.

[Cut]

Yemen... despite having little Western ties... was fragile before this started... and there are already some violent opposition groups... but even if they succeed... it probably would only lead to another dictator.

Firstly, I will say (although it's perhaps the only reddeming feature of the his admin.), Bush did try to have a mission to spread democracy set up in the area, it justwasn't done well and never got funding.

As to the second bit I've copied, that is the problem. Revolution tends to swap one form of corruption for another. It's a whole lot of blood and a whole lot of killing for nothing. Hopefully, they'll get somewhere but it looks like the government isn't after a peaceful transition like Egypt - the kind which does get somewhere.

It's why I think, despite the opposite of what it seems... that working with dictators is the best way to overthrow them.

The Egyptian Military wanted a peaceful transition because they saw themselves more as the protector of Egypt then working for their "President".

Unlike the rest of the armed forces in Egypt... why did they have this difference in opinion?   Well look who trained them.  With the right mindset and enough outside support you know a democracy will follow.

who trained them? i thought egypt trained there soldiers.



 

 

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i personally think yemen and libya yes but bahrain no



 

 

Libya...maybe, but man al-Gaddafi's a butcher...he's far worse than Mubarak.

Yemen, very possible.

Bahrain, dream on.



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Rath said:Bahrain - Yes. Because of the brutal but unsuccesful crackdown the protestors are super pissed off and have the momentum, the monarchy is likely to be toppled or made ceremonial.

That is wrong. That roundabout where they were protesting? It's cleared now. My brother went there today and saw nobody. Unless they regrouped afterwards (which I strongly doubt).

Plus, I don't think "brutal" is the word to use. Especially compared to what's happening in Libya or what happened in Egypt.



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elticker said:
Kasz216 said:
Sheeplord said:
Kasz216 said:

[Cut]


The problem with Libya is that it JUST recently entered the international community, actually due to the strongarm tactics of the Bush administration along with others factors.  There is no way for the international community to intervene... they are fully willing to use full force and to go back in on themselves.  They'll end up like the protestors in Iran.

[Cut]

Yemen... despite having little Western ties... was fragile before this started... and there are already some violent opposition groups... but even if they succeed... it probably would only lead to another dictator.

Firstly, I will say (although it's perhaps the only reddeming feature of the his admin.), Bush did try to have a mission to spread democracy set up in the area, it justwasn't done well and never got funding.

As to the second bit I've copied, that is the problem. Revolution tends to swap one form of corruption for another. It's a whole lot of blood and a whole lot of killing for nothing. Hopefully, they'll get somewhere but it looks like the government isn't after a peaceful transition like Egypt - the kind which does get somewhere.

It's why I think, despite the opposite of what it seems... that working with dictators is the best way to overthrow them.

The Egyptian Military wanted a peaceful transition because they saw themselves more as the protector of Egypt then working for their "President".

Unlike the rest of the armed forces in Egypt... why did they have this difference in opinion?   Well look who trained them.  With the right mindset and enough outside support you know a democracy will follow.

who trained them? i thought egypt trained there soldiers.

Actually, no.  The officers of the Egyptian Army were trained by the US... officers are set to the US usually to the Army War College or the National Defesne University.  They do get training in egypt too... but the finishing touches are almost always done in the USA. 

Compaired to the police forces and paramilitary forces that were trained by Egyptians.

It's part of the US's general plan for promoting democracy.  By hoping that informal contact in the USA will instill western values and democratic ideals... and that said soldiers will then shape the army and allow peaceful transitions to democracy.

The studies in the US college include things like basic human rights and the principle that the army works for the civilians and not the leader.  Which was exactly the reason the armys officers were refusing to fire on the egyptians.  See the Phillipines for another case of US trained officers.



elticker said:

i personally think yemen and libya yes but bahrain no


Man and I was worried that extremist groups would seize power in Egypt. In Yemen their are extremist groups currently fighting an insurgency against the Government. Theirs even a larger chance of Al-Qaida or insurgents gaining power their.

But in the end Libya would be a good change for North America. But who would carry out the elections in there case? The Libyan Army has been killing protetors I highly doubt they will be trusted with bringing in democracy. The Government obviously won't want to run elections.

I personally would like to see the United Nations send forces to Yemen, Libya and conduct free and fair elections. But that is unlikely.



-JC7

"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer