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Hephaestos on 27 February 2011
theprof00 said:

I'm have a good feeling that linkz could be mafia, but I'm not willing to lynch him to prove it. I think he can wait, for now. If we run out of options, or if the cop feels like the odds are in our favor, we could get a claim and decide what to do with him.

PS: I don't think the odds would be in our favor at this point, 2 days isn't enough. If by next day, the cop has three living player's alignments, then I would say that is a good time.


you're joking right?

if we misslynch today, there are 3 townies and 2 mafia tomorow, if the cop has 3 living player's alignments that means he's a hoax...... If the cop survives tonight there is a 100% chance of a counterclaim tomorow so we'll be at 50/50 as it'll be lylo. Who are you gonna trust? the cop that comes out first or the one that comes out second? cause both will have a mafia to spit out or a townie to clear. Linkz cop townie on 5 players means the other 2 would be mafia... and if linkz is mafia then the info is that much more diluted tomorow.

If the cop comes out today, he dies tonight, but if he does clear 2 townies, then we'll know for sure these 2 will be town, leaving linkz and 2 others for 2 mafia slots... pretty safe I would say (and that is assuming we misslynch today with the info at hand, which is less likely than if he comes out tomorow).

thanks for making me think of the situation "tomorow", now I believe the cop should definitely come out. I still want the town't opinion on this. Radish, Noname, ABC, what do you say?



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Hephaestos on 27 February 2011
Hephaestos said:

If the cop survives tonight there is a 100% chance of a counterclaim tomorow so we'll be at 50/50 as it'll be lylo. Who are you gonna trust? the cop that comes out first or the one that comes out second? cause both will have a mafia to spit out or a townie to clear.

quoting to underline this...



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trashleg on 27 February 2011
Hephaestos said:
trashleg said:
Hephaestos said:

so if we assume that the cop has not hit on target, we can safely assume he has at least 1 townie cleared.

linkz cop townie = 3

so out of the 4 left, 2 should be mafia... that's pretty high odds, especially since it'll be 2/3 for the 2 townies concerned.

If the cop has 2 confirmed townies then maybe he should speak up, this would leave us at 2/3.... and a direct confirmation for the one townie left (if we buy linkz's miller).

if the cop speaks up he's a dead man. i don't want him coming straight out and saying it, i'd rather he tried to be subtle. sounds harsh but i'd rather another townie was mistaken for the cop (as therepublic was for the doctor) as it means the cop survives the night, but if he does die in the night then all the clues are there for us.

 

the reasoning is if you look it from the mafia's point of view, you have 7 players - 2 mafia -1 miller, that's 4 left. In these 4 there's at least 2 that have said things confirming them to not be the cop (I counted 3 total but 1 could be mafia, or even 2) which leave a high chance of success for the mafia overnight...

isn't the miller a townie too though, he just scans as alien? or have i misunderstood that role this whole time o_0

the main factor though is do we buy linkz's miller act.... maybe that's a descision for the cop since it's his life :p

i'm not sure i believe link's claim. but i'm willing to go on a little faith, since his style this far has seemed pretty fair. i think i'd have him as my last-resort lynch. what does your last comment mean?




well the thing is that if linkz is true, then the mafia have a pool of 4 townies left (since although a townie, linkz cannot be the cop). I know for a fact that 3 players linkz have said or done something that makes them impossible to be the cop, this leaves only 3 players as possible cops. I highly doubt the 3 players that said stuff include 2 mafia... this means that by deduction, the mafia could have great odd tonight, and we'd loose all the cop info.

The last sentence says that it's up to the cop to decide the veracity of this... He could very well have scanned a dead townie, so he'd have info on only one and there the gamble might be worth it... though it really depends on linkz. I think it's the town's duty to say if they currently believe in Link's miller claim so as to help the cop. Yes 2 will be mafia (or 1 if linz is mafia)... but 3 of the others will be town.


and what if the cop has scanned one alien and one innocent? i for one dont want the cop coming out and saying who's who. not unless he's at a risk of being lynched. THEN i would hope that he'd come out and tell us what he knows so we can make a right lynch and he'd be sacrificing himself as the night kill. but i still would rather that didn't happen and we just read the clues, if there are any.



Highwaystar101 said: trashleg said that if I didn't pay back the money she leant me, she would come round and break my legs... That's why people call her trashleg, because she trashes the legs of the people she loan sharks money to.
A Bad Clown on 27 February 2011
Hephaestos said:
theprof00 said:

I'm have a good feeling that linkz could be mafia, but I'm not willing to lynch him to prove it. I think he can wait, for now. If we run out of options, or if the cop feels like the odds are in our favor, we could get a claim and decide what to do with him.

PS: I don't think the odds would be in our favor at this point, 2 days isn't enough. If by next day, the cop has three living player's alignments, then I would say that is a good time.


you're joking right?

if we misslynch today, there are 3 townies and 2 mafia tomorow, if the cop has 3 living player's alignments that means he's a hoax...... If the cop survives tonight there is a 100% chance of a counterclaim tomorow so we'll be at 50/50 as it'll be lylo. Who are you gonna trust? the cop that comes out first or the one that comes out second? cause both will have a mafia to spit out or a townie to clear. Linkz cop townie on 5 players means the other 2 would be mafia... and if linkz is mafia then the info is that much more diluted tomorow.

If the cop comes out today, he dies tonight, but if he does clear 2 townies, then we'll know for sure these 2 will be town, leaving linkz and 2 others for 2 mafia slots... pretty safe I would say (and that is assuming we misslynch today with the info at hand, which is less likely than if he comes out tomorow).

thanks for making me think of the situation "tomorow", now I believe the cop should definitely come out. I still want the town't opinion on this. Radish, Noname, ABC, what do you say?


A mislynch seems very risky right now, if there's a cop and he winds up dead next morning we're all goners. This is very tough, the cop should roleclaim and say who's innocent but that'd get them killed for sure. The problem is we don't know how many mafia we have for sure, and if there's more mafia than townies we're dun didily done for. I would suggest the cop roleclaim but it depends on if the cop feels he/she should or not.



19:44:34 Skeezer METAL GEAR ONLINE
19:44:36 Skeezer FAILURE
19:44:51 ABadClown You're right!
19:44:55 ABadClown Hur hur hur
19:45:01 Skeezer i meant
19:45:04 Skeezer YOU ARE A FAILKURE
19:45:08 Skeezer FAILURE*
theprof00 on 27 February 2011
Hephaestos said:
theprof00 said:

I'm have a good feeling that linkz could be mafia, but I'm not willing to lynch him to prove it. I think he can wait, for now. If we run out of options, or if the cop feels like the odds are in our favor, we could get a claim and decide what to do with him.

PS: I don't think the odds would be in our favor at this point, 2 days isn't enough. If by next day, the cop has three living player's alignments, then I would say that is a good time.


you're joking right?

if we misslynch today, there are 3 townies and 2 mafia tomorow, if the cop has 3 living player's alignments that means he's a hoax...... If the cop survives tonight there is a 100% chance of a counterclaim tomorow so we'll be at 50/50 as it'll be lylo. Who are you gonna trust? the cop that comes out first or the one that comes out second? cause both will have a mafia to spit out or a townie to clear. Linkz cop townie on 5 players means the other 2 would be mafia... and if linkz is mafia then the info is that much more diluted tomorow.

If the cop comes out today, he dies tonight, but if he does clear 2 townies, then we'll know for sure these 2 will be town, leaving linkz and 2 others for 2 mafia slots... pretty safe I would say (and that is assuming we misslynch today with the info at hand, which is less likely than if he comes out tomorow).

thanks for making me think of the situation "tomorow", now I believe the cop should definitely come out. I still want the town't opinion on this. Radish, Noname, ABC, what do you say?

This is a good point, actually. I was thinking about this a couple days ago, and having a cop come out on last day is not a good idea.

I do have a couple ideas of who the cop could be, so that could influence my decision for the best.. 

but perhaps the cop should claim. Hopefully he's cleared or implicated at least one person.



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theprof00 on 27 February 2011

I think the cop should claim.



trashleg on 27 February 2011

ABC is a confirmed alien.

theprof is a confirmed townie.

 

done.



Highwaystar101 said: trashleg said that if I didn't pay back the money she leant me, she would come round and break my legs... That's why people call her trashleg, because she trashes the legs of the people she loan sharks money to.
Hephaestos on 27 February 2011
theprof00 said:

I think the cop should claim.


he's gonna be pissed :p



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A Bad Clown on 27 February 2011
trashleg said:

ABC is a confirmed alien.

theprof is a confirmed townie.

 

done.


Now would you care to tell us which night we were "searched"?



19:44:34 Skeezer METAL GEAR ONLINE
19:44:36 Skeezer FAILURE
19:44:51 ABadClown You're right!
19:44:55 ABadClown Hur hur hur
19:45:01 Skeezer i meant
19:45:04 Skeezer YOU ARE A FAILKURE
19:45:08 Skeezer FAILURE*
theprof00 on 27 February 2011

I thought that was it.

You used the bad reasoning that I put forward in order to push your suspect.

Well, I guess I'm not doing gambits anymore, lols

I thought in the back of my mind that that was the only other excusable reason, but it was a very long shot.

 

ABC, I want to know exactly what you meant by "chance of killing two good town roles". You implied having a power role. Spill it.