HappySqurriel said:
| Degausser said:
20 million units is never going to happen - DS sold just over 10m in it's first full year... at a lower price then the 3DS. The 3DS has like, 6 -8 months headstart on the NGP with no Christmas headstart either. I'd guess it'll be about 7m ahead WW once NGP launched in Japan, but that's all speculative anyway :P.
I've just not seen much to say NGP dev costs is going to cost significiently more then the 3DS (Which developement costs are relatively high for a handheld). We've seen porting takes next to no time whatsoever, which suggests that the tech / engine / graphical assets for companies already invested heavily in PS3/360 development should be easily transferable. Any difference could easily be a moot point if NGP games cost a bit more at retail too anyway, and if they sell more via digital means with higher profit margins.
I'm not saying NGP won't cost more, just that there is absolutely nothing yet to suggest we should just assume costs will be double that of the 3DS, or on par with the PS3, or will take twice as long to develop. The only evidence we've seen thus far is ports taking 1-2 weeks and a few of the more tech-savy developers speaking good things about the device.
HD graphics arn't the only thing which drive these development costs up either, albeit they're a contributing factor. There are PS1 and PS2 games which cost $20m to develop and HD games which were made on a 7 figure budget, so clearly theres plenty of other factors to consider, namely the nature of the game and it's 'scope'.
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Realistically, the DS sold so poorly initially because it was a poorly supported platform that launched too soon after the Gameboy Advance, it was an odd concept that people (really) didn't understand, and the hardware itself was very large and not particularly portable. None of these factors really apply to the 3DS, and its primary downside is its price which, when you look at iPods and whatnot, is not particularly high compared to other products that have sold very quickly.
Beyond that, one of the reasons I also said that the worst case senario depended upon the announced release date is because (today) everyone is making assumptions about when the NGP will actually release. If you look at the ARM processor roadmap, it is unlikely that the NGP would be able to have a worldwide release in 2011 with a significant supply of systems; and when you add to that the possibility that enough software might be delayed that the NGP might not have adequate software to launch a system until early 2012, it is possible that the NGP might be released a full year after the 3DS.
Regardless, the entire point I was trying to make was that there are still some very massive unknowns about the NGP today; and, until we get some more solid details, it is very difficult to say whether the NGP will be a viable platform.
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We seem to agree in general, I was more interested in debating NGP's development costs / opportunities, but alas I think that's a pretty grey area at the moment. I'm sure it'll get a decent initial investment either way, as Sony are generally good at that, whether it can sustain that or goes the way of the PSP is the biggest question for the console imo.
We disagree on 3DS sales too but it's not long till we get some figures for that. I simply don't believe any handheld priced at $250 can really gain that much sell-through or traction, but the price of gaming has always been on the up so maybe consumers are willing to pay more. I really really can't see it, as handhelds have always been the 'cheaper' option for gaming (Hence why I assume alot of parents buy their kids the things) so we'll see.
It's worth remembering that Sony will most likely choose to release the thing early - even if supply is going to be low - simply because having a sold out, 'must have', product can drive market interest. Sony has already confirmed the thing for 2011 in Japan, but the PSP's launch was staggered to hell so maybe we'll be looking at a heavy delay in Europe too.
It's all speculative anyway so I guess we should wait until we actually know anything about the NGP, like you say :P. Really will be gutted personally if the thing sees like a 7-9 months delay to Europe though, but in all honesty I think those days are over.
