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Forums - Gaming - Could This Be Nintendo's Last Big Christmas?

Avinash_Tyagi on 18 December 2007
Entroper said:

Demand for Wii in Japan is largely satisfied (i.e. not selling out every week), and demand in "total others" is approaching satisfied (or at least closer than in NA).  This will allow Nintendo to ship more units to NA during the first half of 2008, which will quicken the pace of when they will finally be "caught up."  I think by April of 2008, Wii will not be sold out every Sunday morning, and Nintendo will be able to stockpile more units for the 2008 holiday.

This is all assuming Wii Fit doesn't go ballistic and sell 2m+ in its first month.  :)


 Considering how Japan has fallen in love with it I wouldn't be surprised, although how much of the boards they can make is an issue



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Mummelmann on 18 December 2007
super_etecoon said:
Mummelmann said:
rocketpig said:
Mummelmann said:
rocketpig said:
Hawk said:
MikeB said:
I think Christmas 2008 will be less big than this year for the Nintendo Wii, HDTV penetration is rising rapidly, the Blu-Ray vs HD DVD war will probably finally come to an end. 3rd parties will likely continue to struggle on the Wii.

::chuckle:: The old "graphics may not matter now, but they will in the future! I promise!"


Of course. People are going to radically change their opinion of everything in the next 12 months.


That happens all the time with cellphones, clothes, cars and accessories of various kinds. Maybe it can happen to a console aimed at the unstable casual masses? Who knows? Right now, I don't give a crap, but it'll be exciting to see how things are in 2-3 years. Meanwhile, I'll be playing my PC, cursing it for already being too slow even though I spent 4000$ on it last year...


Cellphones and clothes are virtually disposable items. Most people don't spend more than $50 on their cellphones.

Mass consumer items that are over $200 are a little different. The Wii won't stop selling any time soon. Shit, Nintendo is handing out vouchers just to get one now.

You're basically saying the Wii is a fad without actually stating it. I thought we were past that at this point. It's obvious the Wii is going to continue to sell when it hasn't been in stock in most places for 13 straight months now.


Ah, I forget, there is no flux in the markets these days. Seriously, how can you know it'll sell well in 2-3 years? Why I am not allowed to think that the Wii won't see insane LT numbers without being ridiculed. My opinion is every bit as balanced as yours, only you don't like it. It's a sad day when JL gets more credibility than many of the sane users on here, sad indeed.

I'm sorry I don't approve of the Wii, I owned an N64, almost never played a GC, I think Nintendo machines get worse every gen. Please respect that.

Ok...this is where you go wrong. You are basing your opinion of lifetime sales of a system based upon the fact that you don't approve of it? There is plenty of room for speculation about trends and the world in flux without ever bringing your own personal view about a manufacturer into play. As far as JL is concerned...most don't truly believe him. He's fricking funny...that's it. He could say that the Wii would sell -200 million (yes...that's a negative number) and people would love him the same. He truly loves the role he plays here and it shows in his posts. Try putting some wit and humor in your own posts (not simple sarcasm) and you will find that people love you, too.

 

 


 I'll never be popular in here, I'm mainly a PC gamer now, with the occasional PS2 hour. I don't even own a "next gen" (about time we call it current gen imo) system yet. 

The Wii sales seem too good to last, that's my firm belief. I'll never speak out against the Wii again, it's not worth it, I'm tired of being laughed at for not following the herd. Talk about double standards; if I dare suggest that Wii sales can slow down, I'm both witless and a blind fanboy, but everyone else seem to know for sure in their hearts that the Wii will sell 40, 50 and even 60-70 million every year form now on and are praised for saying it.

Again, I'm sorry for having lost my interest in Nintendo's offerings, it's just the way things have turned out. I am genuinely sorry, I loved them before... 



Avinash_Tyagi on 18 December 2007

Mummelmann, if you give something that actually shows why Wii sales will slow down then maybe you won't have people disagreeing with you, so far your arguments are its too casual, people won't keep playing it, but like I said in another thread, this doesn't stop gamers from buying it, just because there is Wii fit doesn't get rid of Mario Galaxy, just because the controls are more pick up and play doesn't stop it from having the best FPS controls outside of Keyboard and Mouse.

 

Nintedo is targeting indifference to gaming as their enemy, but that doesn't mean those who like gaming can't play, there are still games aimed at them, like Metroid, defintely not aimed at causal



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi on 18 December 2007
RolStoppable said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
RolStoppable said:

That's what I was trying to say with the bolded paragraph. It's just that there are still some people who believe that "everyone" doesn't include them, that's why I split up the word "everyone" into the groups the Wii is aimed at. I forgot about the lapsed gamers though.

Well the hardcore feel that its somehow going to make their games go away, when in fact that is the farthest thing from the truth, which is why I like Malstrom's bookstore analogy


Yes, that's the main reason why the hardcore want the Wii to be a fad. They fear that the Wii will make their games go away, because they think that the blue ocean strategy means going for the casuals, while in fact it means aiming for uncontested market space.

There's a lot of uncontested market space for hardcore games too, easiest example of a game is Resident Evil 4 Wii Edition. Aiming at the screen and firing is much more satisfying than playing with a standard controller. You can only get this experience on the Wii, thus it's uncontested market space (no competition from other consoles). 

Hardcore games are more in danger due to the high development costs of 360 and PS3 games. If publishers are posting losses (PS2 and Wii games are making them the most profits, but PS2 is dying) how should they continue making games in the long term?


 True, which is why revenue is growing but profits arent, and which is why companies are being forced to merge



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Mummelmann on 18 December 2007
Avinash_Tyagi said:

Mummelmann, if you give something that actually shows why Wii sales will slow down then maybe you won't have people disagreeing with you, so far your arguments are its too casual, people won't keep playing it, but like I said in another thread, this doesn't stop gamers from buying it, just because there is Wii fit doesn't get rid of Mario Galaxy, just because the controls are more pick up and play doesn't stop it from having the best FPS controls outside of Keyboard and Mouse.

 

Nintedo is targeting indifference to gaming as their enemy, but that doesn't mean those who like gaming can't play, there are still games aimed at them, like Metroid, defintely not aimed at causal


 But if machines like the Wii really ARE the future, we'll see more casual games and less hardcore, which is my prime concern. I want Gran Turismo, Zelda, Final Fantasy, Half-Life and my other favourite franchises to live on! I'm just afraid that the chase after profits will deflate the industry's will to cater to "real" gamers, it's already happening to the music and the movie industry! Diversity is good imo, I say let it live!



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Dryden on 18 December 2007
Entroper said:

Demand for Wii in Japan is largely satisfied (i.e. not selling out every week), and demand in "total others" is approaching satisfied (or at least closer than in NA). This will allow Nintendo to ship more units to NA during the first half of 2008, which will quicken the pace of when they will finally be "caught up." I think by April of 2008, Wii will not be sold out every Sunday morning, and Nintendo will be able to stockpile more units for the 2008 holiday.

This is all assuming Wii Fit doesn't go ballistic and sell 2m+ in its first month. :)


Wii Fit is going to go ballistic.

Remember all those unsolicited clips when the Wii first took off, of Conan challenging Serena Williams at Wii Sports Tennis and stuff like that? Yeah. I think Wii Fit will be like that. Perhaps worse, even. It'll be on The Today Show, Good Morning America, Oprah, Dr Phil, etc ...

If there is even one shred of evidence this thing enables a person to lose even a single lb, Americans (the land of Golds Gym, South Beach, Atkins, Ab Rockers, Bow Flexes, GNC, yada yada yada) will lap it up. 



Avinash_Tyagi on 18 December 2007
Mummelmann said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:

Mummelmann, if you give something that actually shows why Wii sales will slow down then maybe you won't have people disagreeing with you, so far your arguments are its too casual, people won't keep playing it, but like I said in another thread, this doesn't stop gamers from buying it, just because there is Wii fit doesn't get rid of Mario Galaxy, just because the controls are more pick up and play doesn't stop it from having the best FPS controls outside of Keyboard and Mouse.

 

Nintedo is targeting indifference to gaming as their enemy, but that doesn't mean those who like gaming can't play, there are still games aimed at them, like Metroid, defintely not aimed at causal


 But if machines like the Wii really ARE the future, we'll see more casual games and less hardcore, which is my prime concern. I want Gran Turismo, Zelda, Final Fantasy, Half-Life and my other favourite franchises to live on! I'm just afraid that the chase after profits will deflate the industry's will to cater to "real" gamers, it's already happening to the music and the movie industry! Diversity is good imo, I say let it live!


 I'd rather play GT with a controller that I can use like a steering Wheel, Half life with metroid FPS controls, Zelda with the Wiimote controls, which were better than the GCN controls.

 

And lower price dev costs will make it easier for companies to dev games. 

 

Look at the DS, its the perfect example of what the Wii will become, you have games for everyone 

 

even though a game like DQ 9 costs more to dev than Brain training, its still made 



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Dryden on 18 December 2007
Mummelmann said:

But if machines like the Wii really ARE the future, we'll see more casual games and less hardcore, which is my prime concern. I want Gran Turismo, Zelda, Final Fantasy, Half-Life and my other favourite franchises to live on! I'm just afraid that the chase after profits will deflate the industry's will to cater to "real" gamers, it's already happening to the music and the movie industry! Diversity is good imo, I say let it live!


The traditional franchises aren't going anywhere. There are as many developers that want to dev that type of game experience as there are players that want to play it.

People act as if there HAS to only be one platform and one style of game. Why? Who the hell cares? The more the merrier. THAT is diversity.



Avinash_Tyagi on 18 December 2007

Wii's top selling games, not including Wii sports or Play are Zelda, mario Party and Galaxy, Zelda and galaxy are core games, yet are made superior on the Wii then their previous genration counterparts



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Mummelmann on 18 December 2007

I don't really care which console sells half a billion or so, or what casuals spend their time doing; I just want to play my games like before, but I'll also be on the lookout for new ones to add to a lengthy list of favourites.
Maybe the Wii will sell 250 million, maybe it'll sell half that or twice that, I don't know and neither does anyone else in here.

Anyways, I rest my case, I'm sure you love games every bit as much as I do, I'm just getting weary of being labelled as ignorant or biased for having a different opinion. Vgchartz would be a very tedious place to be if we all agreed, after all.

I welcome diversity, which is why I wish for none of the big three to be "dominant" this gen or any other gen. Having no options on a type of product can cause those who do offer the product to get lazy and start making things of less quality.
I've always loved Ninty, but I haven't made up my mind on the Wii yet. If Mario Kart and the next Zelda (I haven't played the last one though, nor those on GC) deliver, I just might get one myself.