One of the big reason why the PS2 and still relevant in sale is because it keeps getting sales in emerging markets, I just don't see that happening with the 360. Its popularity seems to be glue to North America and the UK.

i can see that, but my numbers alile higher. 74m

The following would have to happen:

1) $100 360 with 250gb or larger Hard Drive (MS would sacrifice a lot of profit to get further market share. I think they would do very well at $200 with the hard drive but not 100 million)

2) Kinect would still have to be one of the hottest toys for the next few Holiday seasons in the US (and also be cheaper, say $50 in a few years)

3) MS would not release a console till 2015 or later - Even though they aren't bleeding money like they did with the original XBox I still have this gut feeling MS would kill their console quickly for a new one.

Agreed. Microsoft have yet to exploit the smaller markets like SONY has done this generation and if done, when the 360 is available at much lower pricing, they can continue to make sales in those countries.

If Microsoft is dedicated enough, 100M could definitely be possible.

You can't expect the Next Box to come out and instantly get thrown into the smaller developing countries. That will be 360 territory then.

Just look at PS2.