Ah, the famous JL speaks.

I concur that it's MORE THAN LIKELY the Wii will do better than that, but not everyone has the balls to make absolutely incredible predictions like the ones you make

Nintendo will likely sell 1.5x to 2x as many Wii next year as this year. I doubt Sony will see more than a 1.5x increase -- even if they do, they'll still see sales _way below_ the level the Wii has been enjoying.

Hell, it took Sony two huge price cuts just to get into the same ballpark as the 360. Microsoft's small cut strategy probably involves them doing a second price cut after their FY 2008 financials are complete.

The PS2 did so well because it had a ton of very successful games that casual gamers loved. And some of its more hardcore games were also very appealing to casuals. There were games like frequency that people who'd otherwise be non-gamers loved.

Assuming that the ~115m (this is a generous number considering 130m were produced) owners were all hardcore is a huge mistake. The vast majority of those owners bought the system when it was less than $200 and when there were tons of casual games out for it.

Nintendo is still withholing the Wii from regions of the world because they don't have the units to sell.  Once Nintendo can meet demand for 4 or 5 months straight, then we'll start getting some sort of an idea of how the Wii will sell going forward.  But suggesting that it will slow down in 2009 goes against *everything* we've seen with system sales so far and there is nothing that suggests Wii sales will slow or that the system will not age gracefully.

Nintendo may very well be selling this system in very good numbers at the $99 price point 7 years down the road, well after they've released its successor. 

4 years from now when the Wii has passed 100 Million and is nearing 200 Million, guys like Leo-J will still be saying Wii is going to start fading

 The only thing xmas does is increase volume. Its not like sony has a greater advantage because its xmas. Or that the 360 is supply constrained. More people are buying the PS3 then before at a higher increased rate than people were buying the 360 before.

I suppose an argument could be made that people splurge more at xmas so the PS3 sales may be a bit inflated....but that only shows the actual demand, and the fact that people splurge on a $400 or $500 system rather than a $300 360 with a couple games says enough to me that the PS3 is gaining more momentum right now.

 Only if that demand lasts and people buy games, otherwise its just a blu-ray player

It's losing so far this holiday season, but you might be right...lol!

I expect to get a $5m raise, and for my boss to ask me to work half as many hours.

I expect to win the lottery....twice...in the next 2 months.

I expect to get frantic phone calls from supermodels every day who want to have my children if I would only just let them.

I expect to be the unquestioned ruler of the world by the end of 2009.

I expect to end world hunger with my good looks.

I expect to gain super powers and travel the universe for charity, gracing people with my presence.

I expect people to read this thread and realize how ridiculous an expectation without a supporting reasoning sounds.

I expect leo-j to ignore this and continue expecting things that will likely never happen.

I expect a Deep dish Spinach, Artichoke, bell peppers, mushrooms, onions, banana peppers and jalepenos pizza to show up at my door without ordering or paying

 Me too, maybe if we both expect for the other person as well as ourselves it will be more likely!

 sorry but have to say your numbers on the casuals that bought a ps2 are really really low. casuals bought the ps2 for the dvd player and at the time of release was the cheapest dvd player for at least a few years and dont forget the double and triple buys wen one breaks u ave to replace it. so lets see take the 145 and divide by 3 then minus at least 80 percent is my guess for buying it for just the player itself. that is hwy if u didnt notice in the latter part of its life it didnt seel a game very fast and over 1 mil. the wii has hit this market of casuals and its the same people that has a wii showing others and they get addicted and wants one. i dont see the wii slowing down till we actually find out what the demand really is i mean 100 units per store sold out within a day here? what does that tell ya?