Kinect is a heavy hitter as well and will boost 360 sales throughout the year. It will also be getting some interesting software in 2011. I imagine it'll get like 30 - 40 games in 2011.

I'm going to assume MS will publish about five core titles in 2011. Gears 3, Forza 4, and Kingdoms should be three of them. Some sort of Halo could happen as well. MS apparently wants a game every year.

I think that MS will sell more than 18m xbox 360's this year alone. I think that the price cut will be U$ 50 (the arcade will cost U$ 249 and will come with 8gb and the "elite" will cost U$ 349  and will come with 320gb or 500gb with kinect). At this price and with the success of kinect it will easily sell more than wii does, is a new mix of core casual market together.

Hope is a great thing, :P.

If MS looks like it'll get anywhere close to that, Sony and NIntendo will just take emergency measures ($99 Wii, $199 PS3, VS, software...) and crush its momentum.

I am fairly certain neither Sony or Nintendo will do any "emergency" efforts to counter the 360 momentum.  Sony is trying to maintain profitability and I seriously doubt they will sacrifice that because they are afraid of what MS will do.  Nintendo will own the Holidays no matter what the price point is.  

It would be nice if the 360 did 18 million though, I just don't see it happening.

Obvoiusly they won't, :P. Just saying that if 360 got that high, Sony/Nintendo would do something.

Obviously it won't do quite that much (though it'll still do pretty well, looks like).

I don't think that the companies are concerned regarding the numbers their compeittion does, they most likely care about;

i) Their own product sells

ii) They make profits.

It's mainly the fanboys on forums that biggie up the importance of sales competition that is going on and use every little petty victory as crow to serve to the other camp.

No, but in this case, Nintendo, at least, will have to. I mean, the biggest advantage they have going into the next gemeration, which seems to be right around the corner, is their large userbase which'll buy the Bii before even looking at the HD sequels. If Kinect starts feeding off old Wii users, this advantage will be given to Microsoft. Also, their software sales will be completely drained since their userbase will be busy buying Kinect games.

I don't think that Nintendo are too concerned with the release of the challenges, ie Move and Kinect, they see it as a threat but not a big enough threat as to damage their standing with the casual crowd, if they did we'd likely see Regie slagging off Kinect and Move, he was timid and casual about the mention rather than aggressive in any way, if he held himself bac kudos to him, but I just don't think that he feels threatened at all. I mean Nintendo managed to pull incredible holiday numbers despite the release of Kinect and Move, it really doesn't affect the userbases much as if you think about it, a new casual entrant to the market would have to purchase a 360 AND a kinect, totalling around $299 or £250(Same for PS3 and Move) whereas he/she can purchase the Wii for half that price.

I really don't think they feel threatened, if there is a price cut then it was more aimed towards trying to prevent the inevitable Wii decline YoY, rather than attempting to stump the growth of the competition.

For all you know all the PR's of the companies might get together for friendly games of golf every now and then.

weird thing, if you are saying 13.8 million for this year, and last year was 14m how would 2011 be its peak year?