I don't see kinect sales going under 75k this year. Kinect is an add on/console that will have legs because of its price. Casual gamers won't know about it right away and pick it up whenever they find it. People are saving their money for kinect and they will but it when they have an extra 150 dollars sitting around. Kinect will be in 360 console bundles all year (I hope), so i don't believe kinect sales will go under 75k this year. I predict 10-11 million kinect sales this year.

What do you think?

Yeah, it sounds pretty reasonable especially as it is selling to both new owners as well as current owners. It ought to have a shot at 10M in the calendar year and it may be as high as 15M depending on whether extremely compelling software comes out for it.

yup. if we see forza 4 (Already confirmed), gears kinect (Rumored), and mabye some lesser hardcore titles kinect has a shot at 15 million. that is, if it sells well during the slow period

Even at 25% attach rate over the coming months on new hardware that is still at least 30k a week, so it'd only need to sell another 40k to existing users to meet that target. You ought to expect that it'd sell a couple of million in Q1 alone.

it could just sell a million in january couldn't it? (Thats a huge month)

Im expecting 1.5 million in Q1, 1 million in Q2, 2 million in Q3, and 6 million in Q4 ish

Under 75k by the second week in February.

Well word of mouth is still driving sales with the current lineup. It is really hard to say how well it would sell over the coming couple of months. I would prefer to get some data such as a press release for shipment/sold Kinect units so far. Anyway I don't expect the sales rate to fall substantially during the year at this point so whatever benchmark it sets in January ought to be fairly consistant with September if they keep good content coming out.

I can see doing under 75k, but only in summer, when all sales go down. For the rest of the year will be above.

how about an average then? not counting holiday season of course

During 4 weeks, maybe, in summer about 50k-60k. For the rest, I think about 95k -100K.