Here's the numbers:

2005 BF vs Xmas

 2006 BF vs Xmas

2007 BF vs Xmas

2008 BF vs Xmas

2009 BF vs Xmas

As you can see every year other than 2005 pre-Xmas week (highest selling week of the year) has outsold BF week, with the lowest % increase being 2008 with 22.6% and the highest being 2006 with 57%.

Now to predict 2010 increase we could do something blunt like take the average. But for one the abberant 2005 result would skew the number low, and the likelihood of pre-xmas week being down on BF week is remote at best. But for the other years there is somewhat of a pattern: the bigger the sales on BF week the smaller the % difference with pre-xmas week. So averaging over the years excluding 2005 is likely going to skew the number high. This BF beeing 360's biggest BF ever it means to me that the % increase is likely to be closest to the 2008 %, so 20-22%.

On that basis I think pre-Xmas week could look like this:

For 360 to miss 1 million the % increase needs to be 18.4% or less.

As the biggest BF week ever, and the fact that there has been wide variation in the BF vs. pre-Xmas differential from year to year, it is quite possible for the pre-xmas  increase 2010 to come in at under 18%.

It's a hard call I think. But the momentum Kinect and slim have created for the holidays makes it certainly within reach.

And there's always adjustments, up or down, that can affect the final outcome.

What say you?

I think it is quite possible. As the number of Kinect devices in the wild increases and more people are exposed to them there is a good chance in the short term demand will increase for the Xbox 360.

Anything is possible but I don't think it is likely.

Possible , lets see if it can! i hope so

It's hard to tell. We will probably see some adjustments later (up or down). It will be tight.

I KNOW you're not pointing me in the direction of a thread which is partly credited to me right? Interesting thing is to make the 50 million mark 360 may not need that 1 million week, the rate it's going.

Wow that would be completely beast if the 360 could pull that off...either way I know its going to be really close.

depends on how many kinect units they put out. I went to wal-mart and they do not have any xbox 360 on the shelf, not even kinect stand alone units. There where almost 20 stand alone units a couple of days ago when they where restocking. I shop always late. it's 24 hours, why not?

Considering the ps3 was able to do it last year i dont see why the xbox couldn't do it this year. The xbox does have alot more buzz going for it than it did last year.  Both the xbox and the ps3 had better black friday's this year than they had last year, both of them could possibly break a million. For the ps3 i think it depends on how much gran turismo 5 inflated their numbers though.

Yeah I think GT5 launch inflated the BF numbers, so PS3 unlikely to see 1 million this year. I don't think there are any big games to speak of incoming for PS3 so probably around the 900K mark or a little under.