360 Will Have a 1 Million Selling Week in 2010...Maybe?

[binary solo]

Here's the numbers:

2005 BF vs Xmas

Console	X360
Total	350,847
Total	162,985
percent decrease	115.3

 2006 BF vs Xmas

Console	X360
Total BF	358,803
Total Xmas	563,632
Percent increase	57.1

2007 BF vs Xmas

Console	X360
Total	416,361
Total	586,894
Percent increase	40.1

2008 BF vs Xmas

Console	X360
Total	738,642
Total	906,003
Percent increase	22.6

2009 BF vs Xmas

Console	X360
Total	539,985
Total	746,469
Percent increase	38.2

As you can see every year other than 2005 pre-Xmas week (highest selling week of the year) has outsold BF week, with the lowest % increase being 2008 with 22.6% and the highest being 2006 with 57%.

Now to predict 2010 increase we could do something blunt like take the average. But for one the abberant 2005 result would skew the number low, and the likelihood of pre-xmas week being down on BF week is remote at best. But for the other years there is somewhat of a pattern: the bigger the sales on BF week the smaller the % difference with pre-xmas week. So averaging over the years excluding 2005 is likely going to skew the number high. This BF beeing 360's biggest BF ever it means to me that the % increase is likely to be closest to the 2008 %, so 20-22%.

On that basis I think pre-Xmas week could look like this:

Console	X360
Total BF	844,582
Percent increase	21
Total pre-xmas week	1,021,944

For 360 to miss 1 million the % increase needs to be 18.4% or less.

As the biggest BF week ever, and the fact that there has been wide variation in the BF vs. pre-Xmas differential from year to year, it is quite possible for the pre-xmas  increase 2010 to come in at under 18%.

It's a hard call I think. But the momentum Kinect and slim have created for the holidays makes it certainly within reach.

And there's always adjustments, up or down, that can affect the final outcome.

What say you?