Continuing the discussion from before we started nitpicking about what non-bundled means.
This week saw quite an interesting turn of events. Mario Kart Wii outsold New Super Mario Bros. Wii in EMEAA. By 181k to 179k, but nonetheless, tieing New Super Mario Bros. Wii there now? This definitely makes it seem like Mario Kart Wii might sell more in EMEAA than New Super Mario Bros Wii will (from now on and out, not cumulative). Mario Kart Wii is also up 35% year on year in EMEAA.
The bundle there has really made a change. In fact, the Mario Kart Wii bundle is the most popular bundle in EMEAA, it seems.
Mario Kart Wii is also selling more than New Super Mario Bros. Wii in Japan all of a sudden, with 15k against NSMB Wii's 13k.
Additionally, there's no bundle for Mario Kart Wii in America. Yet, Mario Kart Wii made 117k there this week. That's down just 6.4% year on year.
Mario Kart Wii is now up 14% year on year worldwide. I would say that it selling as much from here on out as it did last year is likely. That's 1.6 million. That would put Mario Kart Wii at 25.6 million at year's end.
I'd also say it seems likely that MKWii will sell more from here on and out in EMEAA than NSMB Wii will. Either that or roughly a tie there seems likely. Japan should be a tie from here on out. That means New Super Mario Bros. Wii will need to catch up 5.6 million in Americas alone. That's going to be quite a feat to do on the best selling game in Americas this gen so far (barring Wii Sports and Play).