There is far more than one posible scenario where having the extra townie killed the first day can cost extra chances to lynch. What there is only one of is a wcs

At one point there is a last kill and the town loses.  You only show that changing one variable from wcs has as many days as wcs.  What happens if you change a second variable?  What if one lynch gets a mafia?  How many days does that have compaired to wcs? How does that change with a no vote first day.  The odds are much less in our favor now and much more in our favor latter so delaying a lynching can really help the town out. 

You were aswering the question how does a random vote the first day compair to the wcs?  The question should have been how does a random vote the first day effect the chance of the town winning?

If mafia or sk were to go based on wcs for them. They wouldn't want any lynchings the first day because they then have one more night to kill, yet with the odds it's in there best interest to have a random vote the first day, so compairing to wcs isn't that helpful when just compared to the basic odds.

Now it is true that the odds are not much better day 2 but you have twice the time to come to a conclusion.  Twice the time for people to interact and make decisions.  Plus time for some cops to do some investigating. 

I'm sorry if this isn't as clear as I wanted it to be.  I think I got the idea that you are so sure of and had to think for a bit of why it's not quite right

There is no such thing as a free lynch even if we can under you scenario get as many wrong lynches in as possible while we still loose and get nothing right.  You didn't the scenario that showed the most number of wrong votes we could do and still win running it with a first day random vote and no vote the fist day.  Beyond that even though there are things that can give the town more chances to mess up and still win.  The serial killer killing a mafia or the doctor stopping a mafia kill.  Or even the town getting mafia instead of another towns person.   What matters is every death of a townie puts the mafia closer to winning and giving them a body would help them in more cases than where it wouldn't matter.

There is far more than one posible scenario where having the extra townie killed the first day can cost extra chances to lynch. What there is only one of is a wcs

At one point there is a last kill and the town loses.  You only show that changing one variable from wcs has as many days as wcs.  What happens if you change a second variable?  What if one lynch gets a mafia?  How many days does that have compaired to wcs? How does that change with a no vote first day.  The odds are much less in our favor now and much more in our favor latter so delaying a lynching can really help the town out. 

You were aswering the question how does a random vote the first day compair to the wcs?  The question should have been how does a random vote the first day effect the chance of the town winning?

If mafia or sk were to go based on wcs for them. They wouldn't want any lynchings the first day because they then have one more night to kill, yet with the odds it's in there best interest to have a random vote the first day, so compairing to wcs isn't that helpful when just compared to the basic odds.

Now it is true that the odds are not much better day 2 but you have twice the time to come to a conclusion.  Twice the time for people to interact and make decisions.  Plus time for some cops to do some investigating. 

I'm sorry if this isn't as clear as I wanted it to be.  I think I got the idea that you are so sure of and had to think for a bit of why it's not quite right

There is no such thing as a free lynch even if we can under you scenario get as many wrong lynches in as possible while we still loose and get nothing right.  You didn't the scenario that showed the most number of wrong votes we could do and still win running it with a first day random vote and no vote the fist day.  Beyond that even though there are things that can give the town more chances to mess up and still win.  The serial killer killing a mafia or the doctor stopping a mafia kill.  Or even the town getting mafia instead of another towns person.   What matters is every death of a townie puts the mafia closer to winning and giving them a body would help them in more cases than where it wouldn't matter.

Well, when you lay it all out like that, Kantor's behavior does seem even more erratic than I'd previously noticed. 

And that was an excellent catch about Heph! 

I'm loath to give up on my bloodthirsty radish-hate, but that "placeholder" thing never rang true, and the more people talk about it the more rotten it seems. 

Also, although you didn't dwell on it, the defense he's been most consistently giving IIRC is "everyone was bandwagoning him, why is it a big deal that I jumped on too?"  That's pretty sad -- and frankly I would expect scum-Kantor to come up with something better than that -- but maybe this is just the game where he trips up. 

radish:  you are on notice.  Stop lying.  Stop acting like mafia.  And I'm not even going to promise I won't switch my vote back, since I'm posting this very late and with morning may come new judgment. 

Unvote radish
Vote Kantor

My only major reservation is that with the votes divided something crazy happens at the last minute ... but that would probably give us plenty of suspects by itself. 

Thank you for the thought out post.  Deleted all but the end just to tidy up.  I think what you are prof were trying to say is that under the worst case scenario we only have so many lynches before we loose.  If we don't lynch on day one it's actually one fewer than if we do.

I posted a responce to him about why I think that is flawed but I didn't come to this thought till way late in the post. 

One more lynch then the wrost case scenario isn't one more lynch than any scenario.  There comes a point where one more townie dead can cost the game.  What we need to know is what is the most nunber of townies that can be killed in bad lynches and still let us win.  Now if the scenarios showed that the only way to get the most is if we accidently kill one the fist day and all others show it with one less.  Then it is a free lynch.  I really don't think you'd find that to be the case.  Even taking out crazy scenarios where the doctor makes saves in rates much higher than probable.  Obviouly it would be almost impossible to have the town killing 8 people and then the mafia wins without a kill of it's own, but in many situations it could be more than the 5 that prof came up with when compairing to the wcs.

Sorry to have still posted on the subject but I think I finally understood what was being argued.

I'm fairly certain that Kantor is mafia, upon reading noname's analysis post.

Unvote: Final-Fan

Vote: Kantor

I wan't really intending to lurk, and I like to refrain from posting if I am not pointing out something new or am being asked something, because I often have problems formulating something that cannot be misunderstood. I am trying to post more often now since I wasn't aware myself how little I posted in this thread... and I did by no means mean that making a mistake now is worse then later, mistakes can hurt the whole game and should never me made...

About voting for Kantor and not Homer:

I pretty much think both are scum, but I distrust myself regarding Homer because of the FF game we played and I might still be holding a grudge (in fact I AM holding a grundge) because I did believe to the very end that he was protown just because he said protagonist.That is why my vote rests at Kantor for now and since Homer isn't very likely to be lynched today. The two that might get lynched today are Kantor and Radish and to be honest... my lynchprefenrence would look like that:

Homer>>Kantor>>Radish>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>GoW>>all the others>>>>>>>myself

just stopping by after school

Kantor is at L2

Be back in  6-7 hours...

Actually, he's hammered.

Twilight.

Hammered? My Votals agree with you're table. But 7 votes is 2 short of 9 required, unless you're just ending the day early?

Votals:
[7,L-2] Kantor: (theprof00), theprof00, (Homer_Simpson), noname2200, dtewi, Stefl1504, GodOfWar_3ever, Final-Fan, radishhead
[5,L-4] radishhead: (dtewi), nordlead, Hephaestos, (Final-Fan), (GodOfWar_3ever), (Wonktonodi), (Kantor), (TruckOSaurus), (dtewi), Homer_Simpson, Linkzmax, MetalGear_94, (Final-Fan)
[2,L-7] Homer_Simpson: Kantor, TruckOSaurus, (Final-Fan)
[1,L-8] TruckOSaurus: dsister, (noname2200)
[1,L-8] theprof00: (Kantor), Wonktonodi
[0] Final-Fan: (GodOfWar_3ever), (theprof00), (theprof00), (GodOfWar_3ever), (radishhead)
[0] GodOfWar_3ever: (Final-Fan), (nordlead)
[0] noname2200: (TruckOSaurus)
[0] Heaphaestos: (GodOfWar_3ever)
[0] Vetteman94: (dtewi)
[0] No Lynch: (radishhead)

[1] No Vote: Vetteman94
With 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch.