Underlined: That is why you first drew suspicion, because it was a lie as shown by your history in mafia. Then your backtracking of the statement was rather horrific. "I'm annoyed that some people have seen through my disguise - I actually have no preference either way, but  I make it look like I do so that I can't be blamed for a mislynch on the first day. I have to give you credit for this." This not only comes across scummy for the fact that you admit to using a disguise and you're annoyed that people have called you out on it, but the fact that you're trying so hard not to get blamed for a mislynch is bothersome to me. There's going to be many voters in order to hammer, more than the number of scum. If you're a townie and use good logic to place your votes, you shouldn't be worried as you have nothing to hide.

Bold: This just reeks like you want to fly under the radar. Again if you have nothing to hide you shouldn't be worried when the magnifying glass is aimed at you.

Italics: Again, you seem very worried about having the attention turned your way if you do something wrong. Granted, by your playing history that was brought up this round it seems that you're often in the spotlight and dying early, so that can't be much fun. But I think that as a townie if you stop worrying about what others will think of you and just try to win, you'll last longer.

So overall it could just be your playstyle, but in this round at the very least you seem extremely concerned about how you appear to others and catching flak for anything you say or do. To me, that's scummy behavior. I would've voted for you earlier, but as I said in other posts I'm in no rush for the day to end. We've gotten a lot more good conversation since you were nearly hammered so I'm glad I held back. Now, you still read as the most suspicious player to me, and since the day is drawing to a close it's time to take action.

Vote: radishhead

<table style="width: 90%;" border="0"><tr><td><strong>theprof00 said:</strong><br /><table style="width: 90%;" border="0"> <tbody><tr> <td><strong>Final-Fan said:</strong><br> <p><strong>It's not that I trust them that much, it's just that I didn't understand why their playing "unspectacularly" led you to suspect them (out of all the other players) as much as Kantor and MORE than me or TOS whom you've had more specific suspicions on.  </strong><br><br>... AHAHAHA Is that post why GoW thinks I'm nordlead's bestest friend in the whole wide world?<br><br>P.S.  The yomi doesn't translate that exactly but I'll keep in mind the possibility that you THINK it does, which would affect your behavior accordingly. </p> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <p>Did you even read my Potals post?</p> <p>I spell it out both in simple maths and in behavior.</p> <p>Heph has been almost absent. He is extremely distant this game. LIsten! He's talked more with hatmoza and j0 than  to OTHER PLAYERS.</p> <p>As far as specific suspicions about you or ToS. I hardly see how you can think that. I have barely nothing on either of you. But it's nice to know that you THINK I do :)</p> <p>And yes, the yomi translates exactly:</p> <p>Yomi 1: I'm going to defend a mafia friend.<br>Yomi 1 counter: I know that you're defending your mafia friend.<br>Yomi 2: I'm aware of your suspicion of me being mafia, so I won't defend my mafia friend.<br>Yomi 2 counter: I know that you're aware of my suspicions, so I know you'll not defend another mafia.<br>Yomi 3: I know that you realize that I am aware of your suspicions, so instead of not defending my mafia friend, I will defend him because you expect me not to defend him.<br>Yomi 3 counter-<br>a) *this is you* I know that you think I am going to suspect you for not defending a mafia because you know that I know that you are aware of my suspicions and so, you would do the opposite, and defend him, thinking that I am expecting you to not defend him.<br>b) I know that you're mafia defending your friend. (recursion of yomi 1 counter)</p> <p>=<span style="text-decoration: underline;">*.*</span>=</p></td></tr></table><br /><br />

what the hell are you talking about?

the every 5 minutes is used to describe the town not Kantor. If anything my statement makes him look less shifty when compared to the town's attitude.

And yes the town has been very inconsistant with all these vote changes and you shouldn't count lenght in posts, we're on the first day, switching votes arorund 2 or 3 times IS a big deal. I've even called you on changing targets and you didn't like it when I asked to focus you efforts, but look where the town is now: we have a russian roulette on Kantor, Radish and Homer, do you really believe that with 20 hours left (or so) we're going to manage to chose the lynch? nope I'd be willing to bet it's going to be up to the timer to decide. What we don't want is confusion, and having 3 players that are voted on at the same time is exactly that.

you ask why some people don't contribute much, it's because half of them don't even know what's going on. This is the perfect cover for mafia, be idle, post a little confused post and "magic" they are forgoten cause there's 3 guys to look at anyways. Heck you've even managed to FoS stelf now because he let into your presuring to vote, so what is that? one more suspect to look at? we can't have the whole town as suspects this is counterproductive.

But you can and there are many ways to get there.  If on any day latter in the game after various voting and killing there are 2 more townies then mafia and one of the townies gets lynched.  The mafia wins with the night kill (most often anyway)  Had there been one more townie alive(like the bad lynch on day one) then the town would have another day to lynch people.  So you would have had one more chance to lynch, if you meant you wouldn't get to lynch more people it is wrong there as well because if you didn't loose the game because of the bad lynch you would have up to as many lynches as it takes to win the game which could be as many as there were mafia at the start of the game(since if the town is ever only up by two we can't make any more mistakes.)

Since he was going by random voting one could calulate the posabilities of what percent chance any one way has of happening.  One could even have the chances of doctors saves or cop investigations( I'm not that familiar with the game so I'm not sure if that usually leads to a mafia lynch or just more discussion.)  Run the percentages with both a no vote first day and random vote first day.  Then from there see which has more probability with random voting of the town winning.  Show what the differences are and let people see it.  I'd be tempted to run some to also see with random voting who is more likely to win in general from random voting town or mafia, but I do not have the time to do so. 

As for Heph, I see that.  I'd forgotten.  But you barely say anything at all about nordlead. 

You don't have much in the way of suspicions of me or TOS, but still you talked about us more than nordlead (and as I misremembered, Heph).  That's why I was surprised that they were suddenly given pride of place in your suspect list. 

The problem with your yomi is that I don't suspect people for not defending someone.  I mean, what?  I would, however, be suspicious if it seemed like someone was avoiding being put in the position of accusing/defending, and then I would wonder if it was because they didn't want to send him to the gallows but at the same time didn't want to be seen opposing the lynch, which would be shady behavior indeed. 

Unless you just mean that the counter-yomi is "this behavior is consistent with my suspicions at level X yomi theory"...?

I don't want to see a Kantor-lynch today.  Not that I trust him, and he is a prime option for investigation, but I don't think his behavior warrants lynching when we have the likes of radishhead and Homer to choose from. 

My preference is radish, but people seem to be objecting to that, and I wouldn't mind lynching Homer either, although just the fact that some people seem really against a radish lynch is interesting too. 

I don't think it's realistic to expect a lynch of Kantor today, so people ought to pick a horse: 

radishhead, or Homer? 

Of course, a No Lynch push might have a decent chance of succeeding too, but I'm not in favor of that this time. 

You've failed in trying to create the scenario I asked for. You're simply trading the day one lynch for the "final day" lynch. There is no gain in lynches nor in number of days in that trade.

It's getting ridiculous that you think a doctor saving a townie or a cop getting scum lynched would hurt town's chances of winning somehow. Nobody is advocating random voting throughout the round, just that on day one a random lynch is just as good as a no lynch if not better. It may be a mislynch but there's also the chance of a successful lynch, which no lynches never have. But we're already trying to improve the odds by catching scummy behavior and bad logic.

There's no reason to go through more probabilities and statistics. In the end Mafia comes down to individual play to decide which side wins. You can't simulate that.

Vote:Radishhead

I just can’t get over your lie and overall you just seemed more scummy to me than Kantor,

But I have no problem lynching either

I’m sure you are capable of getting to where my scenario began with 2 more townies than mafia.  Since you think it doesn’t exist here are a few.  Each day the town lynches one of its own and each night the mafia takes out a second townie until it’s two more.  If by the numbers you need something odd you have the doctor make one save during any of the nights.  If you don’t want it to be by the doctor and there is a SK you could have the SK take out an odd or even number whichever would work before he is taken out by the town or the mafia.  

Does that much make sense to you?

Your next point: about it not gaining extra times to lynch.  The whole point I’m making is that if we were to take a scenario where that one vote lead to us loosing and change that one vote and we don’t lose, we get more days to lynch.  Yes you could say it about any lynch but this was all from him saying a random lynch day one doesn’t hurt by wcs and not taking into account any other scenario. Where the day one lynch could be the difference between winning and losing.

When I was bringing up the doctor and the cop I wasn’t saying they could hurt the town I was just saying you could run probabilities with random votes and in some of them the doctor would save someone and sometimes the cop would investigate scum.   The cop having a better random chance of success since there would be several mafia but only one target the doctor could save.  I’m not totally sure how the cop works with the investigation but I know it doesn’t hurt the town.

My problem has only been that he was using only a few stats to urge people to make decisions when there are many other possibilities.  Who makes decisions based only on wcs?  People make decision based on how likely something is going to happen not what the worst thing that could happen is.

End game is not the same as the start of the game where the possibilities are much smaller so it’s very easy to calculate things.  At the beginning of the game everything that could happen can happen once a day one lynch happens it eliminates half of what could possibly happen.  If someone actually ran a model of random voting out and could say with a random vote on day one there is a 35% chance the town wins and if there isn’t a lynch it has 25% that would mean something if the % were that close it would still have some debate but at least then there would be useful numbers to go on.  All he was saying is that if the town totally sucks we’ll die day 5 random vote or not.  What happens if the town doesn’t totally suck? 

Yes this game is about what people say and do so no model can cover that so why even show the useless part of that one.    The fact he was trying so hard to make people go along saying that the death doesn’t matter day 1 felt rather scummy to me since in a random vote the odds are with the scum.  He was only giving part of the information now it could be ignorance over malice but when he wasn’t listening to other possibilities it made me put him in the malice camp instead of ignorance.  Since as you said there is no point to going through posabilitios and stats why defend partial stats?

1. and mafia never make mistakes when pushing for mislynches...?

2. based on the reasons at hand that is a very big leap

3. people keep saying my reasons are weak, yet I have yet to see anyone actually discredit most of them, in fact so far only one of my reasons has been faulty, the rest were fine, yet people seem very eager to ignore this