nordlead and heph??

Especially:  nordlead??

Notice who he gives the highest chance of being a townie too is none other than gow.  Two of the people most eager for a lynching.  I've bolded and underlined what I agree with.  That plus trying to use limited statistics to try and prove something ( a lie in another form is still a lie)  Has got me to change my vote

unvote

Vote  theprof00

A bunch of cat references. Afraid of lynch cause of the fear of a mislynch.

Noted.

This is a long time after his previous post.... I'm just saying.

followed by -

and,

I must say I like Homer's somewhat new approach to this game...a step up from his previous games...I couldn't tell that he was town in the last game cause he sounded so damn suspicious...this is a step up..or so I thought atm..

but what he is saying is true...scum are more than happy to lynch their team mates to look innocent.

However, prof's post makes no sense cause kantor has voted for prof...he is the one who hasn't. Maybe prof is not voting radish so that if he turns up scum, he can say that "I didn't even vote for him!, scum usually vote for their team mates if they're getting lynched!"....

Reverse psychology FTW ?

If you say so...

How can people get away with mindless bandwagoning ? Kantor is under heat for that very reason, no ?

While Kantor's vote screams "BANDWAGON, BITCH !" its not like radishhead doesn't sound scummy...

While there is an obvious risk in the lynching of radish, I don't think we're blind men firing in random directions...we're more like kinda observant people seeing that someone has contradicted himself and shooting at him.

Everything else you posted so far were acceptable, imo. You had somewhat changed your approach to the game. But this right here just killed it.

This is absolutely false....if Kantor was bandwagoning as you've said, then how the hell is he also "controlling the town" towards a lynch ? 

Its more possible that he reduced the chances of radish getting lynched. I thought you said that voting for someone without much evidence is not something you were willing to do. You also said that while radish was suspicious, you don't have much going on to vote for him.

Yet you vote for Kantor using a crazy ass reason which is simply not true.

There is far more reasons pointing out that radish is more likely to be scum (or playing very badly) than Kantor.

Radish was well on his way to a lynch even before Kantor voted for him. There were 6 more votes on him at the time he did. If you agree that radish has been acting weird, then why is it weird to lynch him for that reason.

I can say that you and prof are trying to get kantor lynched. Its true, even though Kantor has been suspicious. You two are infact LEADING a lynch against Kantor, while you claim that Kantor is leading a lynch against radish when he simply bandwagoned.

I can easily accuse you of bandwagoning on kantor using a nonsensical reason after prof's vote on kantor. What would you say about that ?

My notes in the post above and in the post above :p

Kantor does sound suspicious...but there are others who've been even worse in this round...most notably, radishhead. I think they were attacking you because your reasons for voting for kantor were incredibly poor.

All in all, you've started to read scum to me. But I'm giving you the benifit of the doubt for now. As it simply could've been you not thinking straight...

nordlead sounds very scummy to me as well. So does noname and yourself, cat lover ! Heph on the other hand, I'm 100% sure is scum. But I won't be able to get enough support for a lynch. Fact.

Props for this. Much more in-depth than the table I keep and it has inspired me to expand. I'll comment if I see any large discrepancies in Cont/Gray/NC counts.

Back to my take on the game as noname asked:

After the initial "spat" with GoW, Heph has a lot of joke posts before 

I know prof quoted from this post as well, but he didn't say much besides it's just scummy. To me it's like saying prof alone should do the scumhunting, but if he gets on the wrong track nobody else will be watching anyone else. It's up to every townie to cast their suspicions and follow them up, as the confrontations that actually don't just yield a sterile debate are the most important ones.

Ugggh another fire call. Before I go, Wonk you're misunderstanding the point of the worst case scenario.

So the point of the worst case scenario was that if we always vote wrong we don't loose a day to vote wrong and so get to have one more vote wrong?

It is only one posability and in that situation an extra day won't help you.  One scenario where it doesn't cost a day doesn't mean most scenarios it won't cost a day.  In other situations where we don't get them all wrong that one bad lynch could cost us an extra day and very well the game.  I was hoping he would run a few models to really show it and all he said was they don't matter since it's to hard to figure out.  Having an extra day to loose is still loosing.  How does if effect our chances to win?   What he answered is how it will not make a difference if we loose. I'm wondering if a majority of scenarios have us winning after a bad lynch on day one a majority have us loosing or if it's 50/50 .   He wasn't capable of creating a modle to test all these things out which is why I'm saying it's meaningless.  

GoW, I wonder if you could trim your mega-posts some.  I mean, they're just so LONG.  If you can't make them shorter I KNOW you can make them more compact in terms of sheer scroll length. 

I don't want to discourage anyone from posting analyses to their hearts' content ... but still. 

The point of the worst case scenario is that we have more chances to get it right by lynching day one then not lynching day one. Not only that, but the odds of getting it right on day two and later are better if there's a day one mislynch compared to a no lynch. Odds are worse day two comapred to nolynch if we actually catch scum with a day one lynch, but who'd actually complain in that scenario.

I'm not going to post another table, but I took a look at mislynch vs nolynch day one if we could guarantee a day two mafia kill. Mislynch still always has at least as many lynching opportunities(as in chances to hang scum), and still always gives better odds on the later days. It's not that there isn't means to create models for better scenarios, it's just that those better scenarios don't change anything. You simply cannot create a scenario in which there will be fewer chances to lynch throughout the round by lynching day one compared to nolynching.

More analyses:

Like GoW, I thought Homer's play this round was much better than his last. Then he turned his vote onto Kantor. I still don't see the stated reason behind the vote.

Speaking of Kantor, prof's original suspicions could be paranoia as dtewi suggested. An hour really isn't much to fully digest nearly 200 posts, but whether it was intentional or not Kantor did not answer until after the FoS. noname pointed it out, but Kantor replied to an earlier post, "done reading?" even though he later states that he saw the FoS, but was unfazed by it. Apparently the radish vote doesn't match his playstyle, but I'm not so suspicious of that as others voted with more or less the same justification, and if I were to vote now it'd be on radish more for the poor play then anything. What bugs me more is the two "no you" votes, though I agree Homer's is simply illogical.

MG has been very quiet this round. I'd agree with prof that he's got three content posts which pretty much revolve around radish. Calls him suspicious and "I say we go for it" but doesn't put the vote down. I question that more than the "DIE RADISH DIE" which was addressed as a joke. If you don't want to vote radish then don't, but it seems like you want radish lynched without your name attached to it.

Noname's been a huge contributor and far more active than the last round. I can totally understand responsibilities myself so I'm not likely to hold that against anyone, but the biggest difference I see is an earnest attempt at calling out suspicious behavior. One of my highest town reads at the moment.

nordlead is playing it very straight. It's interesting that he assumed Kantor's vote on radish was for the same reason as his own, but other than that I got nothing.

I'm tired, I'll finish up my takes on the rest when I awaken from my slumber.