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hey there's two silver linings... we know for sure there's only one mafia left now ^^ (or we'd aleady have lost...)... and we made history!

 

Radish kindly said he was going through the posts 2 days ago... so any inputs?

 



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Nothing that hasn't already been mentioned - the only change is that people are as a whole posting less as time passes. I don't have anything concrete against anybody at this point, which makes me afraid that I'm probably going to be the target today, because I'm still looking suspicious from my actions on day 1. 

Today, I think it's obviously very important that we take our time over who to lynch,  however we did this yesterday, and all that ended up happening was a very long day with no real accusations or progress being made. Clearly, the remaining Mafia is a very good player, for being able to stay hidden for so long. 

I think that the most challenging task for the remaining Mafia was yesterday. How he reacted to the situation on getting FFan lynched would have been the difference between life and death, and I think that it's important that we focus on events such as these.

For instance:

Heph and Truck voted for Final Fan. We know that they couldn't have been working together to get a lynch, because there is only one Mafia remaining. However, there is a chance that one of these two is Mafia trying to get a townie to achieve his aim. It's not like we had great proof against Final Fan anyway - but then again, we don't have much information on any of the remaining players. Two of the known mafia voted for Radish on the first day, because he was an easy target due to the strange situation that he put himself in. Heph seemed pretty eager to lynch him too, even during the following couple of days, a bit like Wonk - could there be a connection? Truck has made repeated attempts to lynch Homer - a town. He was also a suspicious character, and possibly an easier target than Radish. I haven't seen his reaction to the lynching of Homer, but it could be interesting.

Stef and Radish didn't vote for anybody. Obviously the Mafia would have had difficult choices to make yesterday - maybe it would have been better for them if they just didn't make a clear choice on the matter at all. Radish made a couple of mistakes on day 1, such his "preference" of a no-lynch on day 1. Maybe he wanted to stay out of the limelight in case everyone turned on him again? Stef has roleclaimed a half-cop, which is a rather strange role for a Mafia game of which the roles were taken from the official Mafiagame wiki. He managed to correctly predict 2 mafia, which showed that he is on our side - but is it a little suspicious that he managed to get two correct predictions in a row? Also, it could be said to be a bit convenient that the person he was targeting got killed and therefore no more investigations could be made. Any more information given to the town would have almost ensured a Town victory.



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~~~~ Mario Kart 8 drove far past my expectations! Never again will I doubt the wheels of a Monster Franchise! :0 ~~~~

OMG! We just have gotten 100 Luck! So it is clear that there is a doc out there... who will now know who is not scum, even if it sounds selfish, but if you did not protect me please get say who you protected and we lynch the other one... if you have protected me please, please DON'T SAY WHO YOU  ARE, if someone else claims doc come out anyway and then we make a no lynch - getting into a situation where are three players left tommorow, if the non doc dies I have and investigation on one of the 'docs', then we have the fake doc, if one of the docs dies and isn't scum the other one is a doctor... if only one doc comes out and someone else was protected we also should have gotten scum, 4 players - me - doc - target... if you have protected yourself... I think you should only come out tommorow...



Stefl1504 said:

... if you have protected yourself... I think you should only come out tommorow...


or if someone else claims doc...



Stefl1504 said:

OMG! We just have gotten 100 Luck! So it is clear that there is a doc out there... who will now know who is not scum, even if it sounds selfish, but if you did not protect me please get say who you protected and we lynch the other one... if you have protected me please, please DON'T SAY WHO YOU  ARE, if someone else claims doc come out anyway and then we make a no lynch - getting into a situation where are three players left tommorow, if the non doc dies I have and investigation on one of the 'docs', then we have the fake doc, if one of the docs dies and isn't scum the other one is a doctor... if only one doc comes out and someone else was protected we also should have gotten scum, 4 players - me - doc - target... if you have protected yourself... I think you should only come out tommorow...

are you suggesting that we no lynch today to have the investigation tomorow?



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radishhead said:


well that wasn't that hard....

FoS you for being able to do a decent analysis of the situation, yet not have contributed it all game and having skipped on it yesterday.



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Oh xD

I didn't realise why there wasn't a kill last night. I assumed that the mafia just didn't want to be one of 3 people, rather than 4 for some reason :p I can't believe that we've actually got a doctor :o 



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~~~~ Mario Kart 8 drove far past my expectations! Never again will I doubt the wheels of a Monster Franchise! :0 ~~~~

that's actually a sound remark...radish

1) The mafia could indeed have prefered to be one out of 4... but we can just no lynch and then if they fail the kill at night due to a doc, then they are discovered.... it puts their odds at 50% instead of 66%....

2) there's of course an other possibility... we no lynch, someone dies at night and stefl comes out with an investigation...lynch based on this, stefl wins...though the question would be: how could he have gambled that there are no cop on round 3?

3) lastly... maybe there's no doc and the mafia is a godfather... so it's in his interest to be investigated... :-/

the thing is, the first reason doesn't benefit the mafia... the other 2 do.

(there's still the option of there being a doc and the mafia to have failed though.... but there could also be a doc and have been no night kill for reasons 2&3)

 

now considering that there was 4 mafia... that's 22% scum, it's low.... the godfather is highly possible.



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Hephaestos said:

2) there's of course an other possibility... we no lynch, someone dies at night and stefl comes out with an investigation...lynch based on this, stefl wins...though the question would be: how could he have gambled that there are no cop on round 3?

I'm sure that Stef is the cop, so this possibility might be best, but as you said, the Godfather has a chance to be innocent upon investigation. I'm pretty sure that the game board thing would have mentioned if we'd killed the godfather, so it's almost definitely him that remains. If we don't have the investigations on our side, what can we do? :(



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radishhead said:
Hephaestos said:

2) there's of course an other possibility... we no lynch, someone dies at night and stefl comes out with an investigation...lynch based on this, stefl wins...though the question would be: how could he have gambled that there are no cop on round 3?

I'm sure that Stef is the cop, so this possibility might be best, but as you said, the Godfather has a chance to be innocent upon investigation. I'm pretty sure that the game board thing would have mentioned if we'd killed the godfather, so it's almost definitely him that remains. If we don't have the investigations on our side, what can we do? :(

what can we do? well first we wait for the other's opinion. Then we decide.



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