I was investigating tonight... sadly the scum was killing the one I investigated so I got no result... I don't know if that used up my investigation, so I'll simply try to investigate someone tonight... actually it seems pretty bad either way for us... if we mislynch today and the scum kills tonight it is very likely the doc is under the dead... if he is not the next day and night will be a luck gamble... either way... right now I am considering a no lynch... which would actually help scum... argh... I don't really know what to do right now... if we go for a lynch each one of you does not look very suspicious to me... and thats my problem since we got rid of wonk and homer...

Yesterday we didn't have an investigation to go on so Stefl should have one today.

Also, I'm suspicious most of you and Hephaestos but Heph it's more or less because I can't get a read on him at all. I'll have to take a closer look at his posts to make a more informed opinion.

@stefl: To only way I'd agree to a No-Lynch is if you get confirmation you can use your investigation tonight. To me it seems unlikely but it wouldn't hurt to ask hatmoza.

Also, I'm starting to contemplate the idea that we don't have a doctor at all since none of the kills were stopped (but it just could be bad luck).

This is definitely a crucial part of the game, but I don't have many suspicions on any of the remaining players :( I'll have to do some post analysis later, I guess.

I'm not sure you'll be able to investigate again, if I recall the order of things has the kills happen last no? So I guess Hat was just lazy and didn't send you a notice.

about the no lynch issue:

_ if there are 2 scums, a misslynch or a kill tonight is the same thing, they win, a correct lynch puts us at 2vs1 tomorow, so 50% chance of winning.

_ If there is 1 scum, then yeah a no lynch does extend us by half a day each time, so we'd need to do it twice. tomorow we'd be at 3vs1, next day we'd end up at 2vs1 and stefl will have a 66% chance of knowing who the scum is (-33% because he could again investigate the dead guy). This assumes he's not dead by that point. -> odds are 66% for the town winning.

_ If there is 1 scum and we misslynch today (20% chance of hitting scum) we're at 2vs1 tomorow with no investigation, so 50% chance.

NB: all these assume stefl isn't scum... if he is then the odds are much lower and he'd basically have won already as we can do nothing but follow his lead, so it's a non issue. Though yeah not getting info today is just about the worst day for the town, because we're at a critical point.

So first question is do we believe there is 1 or 2 scums left?

Second question is, do we want to wait the next investigation? so trading a 25% chance against a 16% chance on the last day.

I personnaly believe there are 2 so i think we're past the point where we can use the no lynch...

If the town believes that there is only one mafia, I think the odds are better to do 2 no lynch and grab the 66% rather than do 25% then 50%. I'm more inclined to it than I was when I ran the numbers the other day because we lack a key information... the cop result of today which would have changed thed odds of today's lynch.

I believe that there's only 1 mafia left, but I'm not keen on the idea of a no-lynch. The odds are much better though :S

Let's just get to work; nobody trust anyone, and let's pick apart each other's posts :D It'll be like Day 1/2 all over again :p

2 No-Lynches!?!? Have you lost your mind? Just so we can have another investigation from Stefl? With the tiny numbers we have right now, there's a huge chance the Mafia will get the doctor and then Stefl. Plus it's an incredibly cheap strategy.

And while I'm leaning more towards there being only one Mafia left we can't operate ignoring the possibility there could be two of them.

well i'm pointing out that 1 no lynch is useless.

Basically a no lynch gains half a day... so 2 no lynch is the equivalent of a misslynch. In essence, we'd be trading our misslynch (25% chance) possibility for an investigation (boosting the last day to 66%). Yes there is the risk that the doc dies... but only tonight, if he dies the next night then it's irrelevant as stefl will be safe there is a 25% chance for this plan to fail with a doctor death. It is a gamble, but if you look closely, the logic is sound.

with me thinking that there are 2 mafia, you thinking that we can't gamble and radish who wants to relive day one (I would have though he had a bad memory of it), then this no lynch option is pretty much expired. If we misslynch today, it's either defeat or plain 50% tomorow.