its a shame you guys are getting all bent out of shape about a video game, get a life, i was  only saying its not very likely, and microsoft's track record isn't exactly "peachy"

@Seece & @Kowenicki:

You make some good points in your arguments on this thread, but I think you could be overestimating just how well Kinect's sales will sustain over a long period of time.  Your views are certianly logical:  Huge scale advertising, a new casual market to appeal to and over 40m 360 owners it could sell to as well.  And as I said earlier, I'm not dismissing the possibility that Kinect could be an enormous hit.

The problem is Nintendo has already made its mark as the casual friendly system with both the Wii and Wii Fit/balance board.  I just don't see a large percentage of Wii's audience ever running out to buy a 360 for Kinect, even with the inevitable price drops.  Nintendo came along at the right time with the right product, IMO.

As far as why Wii's audience may not gravitate towards Kinect, I'd like to point out something that Rubang hit on previously (I know the last thing you want to hear is another die-hard Nintendo fan saying this, but...) Nintendo truly are visionaries and innovators in a very unique way.  Here's an example:  Right before PSP launched, many people were convinced that nobody would want a DS anymore.  Let's face it; comparing the DS (particularly the old model) to the PSP seems laughable... at first glance.  Then Nintendo utilized the touch screen and mic in amazingly unique ways with things like Brain Age and Nintendogs.  I guess my point is that if almost anyone else had come out with something like DS or Wii I wouldn't give them much of a chance at all at being a success.  Nintendo proves themselves again and again with industry defining standards for home consoles (d-pad, analogue stick, touch screen, motion control, even rumble, and their fantastic gameplay innovations over the years), and frankly I just don't see Microsoft having that savvy.  Seece stated earlier that there are many great minds working on Kinect, and maybe you know something I don't, but all I've seen is Kudo Tsunoda running his mouth and dissing Wii while Kinect has yet to display or announce anything more than mere shadows of the Wii experience.

I have no reason to want Kinect to fail.  I don't work for Nintendo or Sony and if Kinect comes out with some killer core games I will gladly purchase a 360 for one.  But at this point I see the core sticking with any of the three consoles for their core experiences, while the casuals gravitate towards the Wii, or possibly even the PS3 as it is a blu-ray player and has motion controllers that seem to be far more precise and practical in a gaming environment than Kinect.  But only time will tell...

I don't know why you guys spend time arguing with a guy whose first post in this thread is a blatant strawman that tried to make the thread look ridiculous instead of debating the issue.

It won't reach 20 millions.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6AE4EQ20101115

Reuters: Microsoft said on Monday it has sold more than 1 million of its new hands-free Kinect gaming systems in the first 10 days since launch.

That is one million for the American and European launch combined... of shipped units... probably even rounded up.

You wish, that article leaves a lot open to interpretation. Nowhere does it say it is Americas only or WW/EMEAA. If you really think (no wait I bet you do) they have only shipped 1 million Kinects to NA and America then LOL.

NPD has been delayed, I hope for the reason I'm thinking of. Tomorrow should be interesting.

http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2010/nov10/11-15ninemillionpr.mspx

"Microsoft Corp. today announced it has sold 1 million Kinect for Xbox 360 units worldwide in 10 days"

"we will continue to work with our retailer partners to keep pace with high demand and deliver against our plan to sell more than 5 million Kinect sensors"

They're talking about shipments IMHO...

Threatened is an interesting way to interpret "I don't think it will flop, and I don't think it will sell 20 million.  I predict it will be somewhere in between but I'm not sure where, but I'll update this prediction in January if necessary, as more data is available."

I'm wondering if you people are reading my comments.  Because I've said that a few times now.  And looking at the sales of everything that has ever been released before in this industry, I think history is on my side.

And I am not like the analysts who were and are predicting doom and gloom for the Wii since before it came out ("oh that name is stupid, it will fail," "motion is stupid, it will never work," etc.)  I am not predicting abysmal failure, calling it a joke, or insulting it.  I played several Kinect games at E3 and had fun.  I am simply doubting its ability to sell 20 million 5 years after the console launched.

That's all I've said.

Now good day everybody.  Thank you for your time.  We'll now return to your regularly scheduled Kinect worshipping, Kinect demonizing, and nothing in between.

to do 20 millons kinect need to be big in all three market and so far kinect is ok in EMEAA, huge in the states and won't do much in japan so no I don't see that hapenning

Maybe more...you never know.

When you put it like that, it do sound pretty interesting. But when you put it this way:

"What? Do you people live in bizarro world?? Kinect has no chance to reach 20m and you have to be a ****** to think that it might. Only nintendo can sell 20 million for peripheral! Nintendo  only haz 20m selling gamez no-one can ever achieve that, nintendo is magic, nintendo nintendo 3rd parties suck microsoft can't do that nintendo does nintendo this and that"

Threatened? I think so.