I would say Q1 2012 in Japan, where PS3 has been outselling Wii for weeks now.

I'm personally much more excited about Nintendo next generation with the 3DS and their HD home console.  The Wii did help them get back on the console map, but I think it would be bad if they delayed the successor too much.  Right now, the momentum is shifting toward the HD consoles.  Sorry to whomever this offends, but the Wii really is just not there in terms of raw computing power and the market has now fully accepted HDTV, unlike at the start of this generation.  HD penetration has skyrocketed since the beginning of this gen.

Reggie says holidays are important = no way they would ever talk about a successor to Wii

Home consoles aren't so hot in Japan period. It's not just the Wii that is having this problem.

HDTV sales are not up to expectations, due to the economy. Plus even accepting that the market is taking to the TVs, that ONLY means the TVs. It does NOT follow that non HD products are not popular on them, especially since higher resolution is not the only difference between them and SDTVs. For one thing, the flat panel is a way to get larger screens without the weight and space being taken up by using a CRT of comparable size.

Then what is your explanation for the trend in Wii sales downturn and HD console sales upturn?  I disagree.  Many people DO like the difference in video quality once they know how to connect their HDTVs properly and get an HD source.  There has been a problem with getting consumers to learn about HD sources vs. SD sources, but that's better.

Even if HDTV sales aren't so good now, the penetration in this country is at the 50% line of households.  In 2006, it was less than 15% IIRC.

"Then what is your explanation for the trend in Wii sales downturn and HD console sales upturn?"

If you are still going on about HD visuals, you wouldn't understand another reason, even though there are loads of other possible factors and you are just going on about the one.

I don't think HD visuals are the only reason.  I just said it was one of the reasons.  The new motion controllers also have something to do with it.

I have a Wii and I love it (alot more than the 360, which I recently sold).  However, it does still feel like older technology to me and I know many others feel the same way about it too.  I do want to hear your take.  I'm not as much of a graphics whore as you might think because I still do play older games that are out of date on that department.  I'm playing Xenoblade right now and loving it.

"I don't think HD visuals are the only reason.  I just said it was one of the reasons.  The new motion controllers also have something to do with it."

No, neither is a reason. The other motion controllers just launched, so they cannot have affected the last few months. Visuals cannot be a reason, or else this trend would have been the norm not recent.

These are video game systems, so perhaps, for some strange reason, the games are the reason for the trend. In case you hadn't noticed, the last big systems seller for the Wii was the visually unimpressive New Super Mario Bros Wii, and that was months ago. So nothing like that since then is the reason, not anything about graphics.

EDIT: Sorry that came across as rude. My point still stands, but I should have presented it better.

Who knows how well Wii will fare next year/xmas. It'll do well this year.

Next year however Kinect and 360 will be getting a price cut and be in full swing, PS3 will get a price cut too.

Now of course Wii will get a price cut too, but I think with yet another year of lower YoY sales, that's going to be too much for Wii xmas 2011.