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Forums - Sales Discussion - Games expected to sell well (qualify well) that will bomb (define) in 200

jman8 on 09 April 2007

i'm a pretty big sony fan, and i have to say i'm not very excited for Killzone 3. It's toward the bottom of my list of 1st party games. However, that could all change with what's shown at E3. More than any other game, this one will perform solely based on its showing at E3. If it looks like Resistance, it'll sell 2-300,000. If it's above Resistance but not up to Gears-level, 4-500,000. If it's Gears or beyond then 900,000+

 

Edit: Oh yeah, Killzone=bomb to just about everybody solely b/c it will never live up to E3 05



My Top 5:

Shadow of the Colossus, Metal Gear Solid 3, Shenmue, Skies of Arcadia, Chrono Trigger

My 2 nex-gen systems: PS3 and Wii

Prediction Aug '08: We see the PSP2 released fall '09. Graphically, it's basically the same as the current system. UMD drive ditched and replaced by 4-8gb on board flash memory. Other upgrades: 2nd analog nub, touchscreen, blutooth, motion sensor. Design: Flip-style or slider. Size: Think Iphone. Cost: $199. Will be profitable on day 1.

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Avinash_Tyagi on 09 April 2007
jman8 said:

umm, FF sales are second only to Dragon Quest in Japan. How that's average, i have no idea.

 

Same deal with MGS. 800,000 units per game is pretty hefty


 800k isn't that much, and in japan FF is beaten by a lot of games in sales



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi on 09 April 2007
ngg12345 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
ngg12345 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
MGS 4, FF13 , due to the fact that they are on the PS3, which has a very small base, they'll sell well, but no where near the level of their predecessors, probably half as well at best

I don't think that the ps3 will have that small of a userbase then. And will increase due to these games being system sellers. Also, due to ff13 being q1 2008, the ps3 userbase will be around 8-14 million, and if the rumour is true that a price drop for ps3 will happen in october, ps3 will be selling very well.

And in the fact that these games are system sellers, and that the fanbase will buy it regardless will help the sales. FF13 has a diehard fanbase. I don't expect them not to buy the game because it is on the ps3. It doesn't make any sense.


MGS doesn't sell in Japan and FF is not that big in Japan, its average, and people in japan are asking for FF13 to be multiplat

Actually, ff is the biggest playstation franchise in japan, and is 3rd behind mario, and pokemon franchise. I would hardly state that it sells average and after seeing what you posted, you seem to me as another sony basher. Can anyone confirm this or my feelings just a little wrong?

 


 Brain Training and Animal crossing outsell it as well (and DQ also outsells it), and  FF12 sold pretty low for an FF game, only 2.42 million, much less than previous FF's  

indicating the series in in decline 



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

TheSource on 10 April 2007

For Nights "to bomb" it would have to sell exceptionally poorly since the original was never that big to begin.

I think Sega dreams of Nights Wii selling like 700,000 worldwide.  But they probably expect around 300,000 worldwide.  Anything below 150,000 would mean Sega made a huge mistake..and anything over 450,000 I think would insure sequels...it really depends on whether the game is tottally exclusive to Wii, and how much it cost to make.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

souixan on 10 April 2007
TheSource said:

For Nights "to bomb" it would have to sell exceptionally poorly since the original was never that big to begin.

I think Sega dreams of Nights Wii selling like 700,000 worldwide. But they probably expect around 300,000 worldwide. Anything below 150,000 would mean Sega made a huge mistake..and anything over 450,000 I think would insure sequels...it really depends on whether the game is tottally exclusive to Wii, and how much it cost to make.


 I meant for what people seem to expect it to do, not Sega but Iguess yeah the original didn't do so amazingly. A lot of people seem to think this is gonna be like a system seller and I really don't think it'll ever live up to that.



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steverhcp02 on 10 April 2007
Avinash_Tyagi said:
ngg12345 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
MGS 4, FF13 , due to the fact that they are on the PS3, which has a very small base, they'll sell well, but no where near the level of their predecessors, probably half as well at best

I don't think that the ps3 will have that small of a userbase then. And will increase due to these games being system sellers. Also, due to ff13 being q1 2008, the ps3 userbase will be around 8-14 million, and if the rumour is true that a price drop for ps3 will happen in october, ps3 will be selling very well.

And in the fact that these games are system sellers, and that the fanbase will buy it regardless will help the sales. FF13 has a diehard fanbase. I don't expect them not to buy the game because it is on the ps3. It doesn't make any sense.


MGS doesn't sell in Japan and FF is not that big in Japan, its average, and people in japan are asking for FF13 to be multiplat


 yes an online poll in which 169 japanese people said this surely tells us "japan is asking for it to be multiplat"........jesus, but then, the first thing i bolded about FF not being that big in japan totally brings your credibility to a screeching halt so i guess your FUD about japanese wanting FF13 to be multiplat should be ignored




Get Your Portable ID!

Avinash_Tyagi on 10 April 2007
steverhcp02 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
ngg12345 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
MGS 4, FF13 , due to the fact that they are on the PS3, which has a very small base, they'll sell well, but no where near the level of their predecessors, probably half as well at best

I don't think that the ps3 will have that small of a userbase then. And will increase due to these games being system sellers. Also, due to ff13 being q1 2008, the ps3 userbase will be around 8-14 million, and if the rumour is true that a price drop for ps3 will happen in october, ps3 will be selling very well.

And in the fact that these games are system sellers, and that the fanbase will buy it regardless will help the sales. FF13 has a diehard fanbase. I don't expect them not to buy the game because it is on the ps3. It doesn't make any sense.


MGS doesn't sell in Japan and FF is not that big in Japan, its average, and people in japan are asking for FF13 to be multiplat


 yes an online poll in which 169 japanese people said this surely tells us "japan is asking for it to be multiplat"........jesus, but then, the first thing i bolded about FF not being that big in japan totally brings your credibility to a screeching halt so i guess your FUD about japanese wanting FF13 to be multiplat should be ignored


 Looks at charts, nope its not that big, Big is games that sell like 4 million+, the recent FF's have sold around 2.5 million



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Hus on 10 April 2007

some weak picks.

 

MGS4 IF it hits in 07 will come during Xmas,  so it benefits form the shoping sprees.

 LBP no educated guess can be given on it, the game is just to differant then the rest.

 GTA will sell great, 2 mill no probelm by Jan1 2008  .... Resistence has a 1 out of 3 attachment rate.



ngg12345 on 10 April 2007
Avinash_Tyagi said:
steverhcp02 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
ngg12345 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
MGS 4, FF13 , due to the fact that they are on the PS3, which has a very small base, they'll sell well, but no where near the level of their predecessors, probably half as well at best

I don't think that the ps3 will have that small of a userbase then. And will increase due to these games being system sellers. Also, due to ff13 being q1 2008, the ps3 userbase will be around 8-14 million, and if the rumour is true that a price drop for ps3 will happen in october, ps3 will be selling very well.

And in the fact that these games are system sellers, and that the fanbase will buy it regardless will help the sales. FF13 has a diehard fanbase. I don't expect them not to buy the game because it is on the ps3. It doesn't make any sense.


MGS doesn't sell in Japan and FF is not that big in Japan, its average, and people in japan are asking for FF13 to be multiplat


 yes an online poll in which 169 japanese people said this surely tells us "japan is asking for it to be multiplat"........jesus, but then, the first thing i bolded about FF not being that big in japan totally brings your credibility to a screeching halt so i guess your FUD about japanese wanting FF13 to be multiplat should be ignored


 Looks at charts, nope its not that big, Big is games that sell like 4 million+, the recent FF's have sold around 2.5 million


Dragon Quest VII: then I guess this is the only big console game ever made.



Avinash_Tyagi on 10 April 2007
ngg12345 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
steverhcp02 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
ngg12345 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
MGS 4, FF13 , due to the fact that they are on the PS3, which has a very small base, they'll sell well, but no where near the level of their predecessors, probably half as well at best

I don't think that the ps3 will have that small of a userbase then. And will increase due to these games being system sellers. Also, due to ff13 being q1 2008, the ps3 userbase will be around 8-14 million, and if the rumour is true that a price drop for ps3 will happen in october, ps3 will be selling very well.

And in the fact that these games are system sellers, and that the fanbase will buy it regardless will help the sales. FF13 has a diehard fanbase. I don't expect them not to buy the game because it is on the ps3. It doesn't make any sense.


MGS doesn't sell in Japan and FF is not that big in Japan, its average, and people in japan are asking for FF13 to be multiplat


 yes an online poll in which 169 japanese people said this surely tells us "japan is asking for it to be multiplat"........jesus, but then, the first thing i bolded about FF not being that big in japan totally brings your credibility to a screeching halt so i guess your FUD about japanese wanting FF13 to be multiplat should be ignored


 Looks at charts, nope its not that big, Big is games that sell like 4 million+, the recent FF's have sold around 2.5 million


Dragon Quest VII: then I guess this is the only big console game ever made.


No because a lot of titles have sold more than 4 million in a single territory, both on Handhelds and home consoles.  But you are avoiding my point, FF 12 only sold 2.5 million on a base of about 22 million, the game is not going to set Japan on fire, and won't propel PS3 sales much, this will be like Monster hunter on the PSP, it'll boost PS3 sales for a couple of weeks tops, and it will probably top out around a million+ sold



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)