I don't think that the ps3 will have that small of a userbase then. And will increase due to these games being system sellers. Also, due to ff13 being q1 2008, the ps3 userbase will be around 8-14 million, and if the rumour is true that a price drop for ps3 will happen in october, ps3 will be selling very well.

And in the fact that these games are system sellers, and that the fanbase will buy it regardless will help the sales. FF13 has a diehard fanbase. I don't expect them not to buy the game because it is on the ps3. It doesn't make any sense.

FF12 sold

on an Install Base of

FF13 will not greatly outsell 12

Expect FF13 sales to top out between 2.250 and 2.5 million sales as a BEST CASE SCENARIO

Worst case scenarion, on the 3m install base Japan will have by the time of release, FF13 BOMBS, and sells under 500k first week.

MGS doesn't sell in Japan and FF is not that big in Japan, its average, and people in japan are asking for FF13 to be multiplat

umm, FF sales are second only to Dragon Quest in Japan. How that's average, i have no idea.

Same deal with MGS. 800,000 units per game is pretty hefty

800K is pretty impressive for Japan... I don't see MGS4 doing that well though... 500-600K in Japan...

FF will drive system sales, but its going to be practically impossible for it to sell 2 million in Japan if the PS3 install base is below 2 million when it debuts. First week over 1.25 mil, second under 200K.

Boogie... The game has to go off without a hitch... Review in the 8s... Have a fairly open spot in the release schedule... And a solid TV ad campaign from EA... And it will be a hit in NA on the order of 350-500K... But yeah, 120K NA wouldn't surprise me, as I don't actually expect ANY of the above to happen.

Almost that entire list of supposedly great big 360 games will sell under 2 million... Mass Effect, Bioshock, Blue Dragon, even Forza 2... I don't see those being huge hits... If any of them reach 2 mil WW I'd be impressed, and if only Forza reached even 1 mil WW, I wouldn't be totally surprised.

Killzone will bomb, but its hardly expected to do well, is it? 175 games sell 1 million copies on PS2, and people hype the sequel to one that sold, what? 600K? I agree that the PS3 version of GTA4 has an uphill battle too. I can see the 360 version outselling it 4 to 1 (still leaving it around 2 mil), and landing timed exclusivity on GTA4-2.

I expect Smash Brawl is going to decline a little bit from Melee in NA... Will debut bigger, but won't have the 5-year long legs, due to more competition for shelf space over the life of the console. Maybe does 3.3-3.5 million vs. the 4 mil of Melee. However, it will be the biggest Smash yet in Japan, doing over 2 million, due to Wiimania.

RE4 - Wii - I truly dont think this game will be that great. Its not a game that you play with the WiiMote.

Metroid Prime 3 - Wii - Unless the controls improve from what was seen at E3.. its going to bomb.

Blue Dragon - 360 - Its just not a game that fits the 360 fanbase. 

Skate - PS3/360 - This game wont beat the Tony Hawk Franchise.

Oh btw guys... FFXIII isnt coming out till 2008.  

We know

I have to agree with RE4 I really don't think it'll do that well, but it may do okay considering it's a rehash.

On Metroid Prime 3, word is it's been highly fine tuned since then and continues to be tweaked.

Blue dragon, is a REALLY good game but I doubt it'll be well recieved because of it's console(though I bought a 360 specifically for this game.)

 I'd have to guess:

Blue Dragon Xbox360: I just don't see it selling well even though it's very fun.

Killzone 2 PS3: Not many people, actually I've met none, even a few hardcore sony fans I know seem to excited for this one

 I'd go into more but meh I'm too lazy so 1 per system.