Games expected to sell well (qualify well) that will bomb (define) in 200

[Erik Aston]

800K is pretty impressive for Japan... I don't see MGS4 doing that well though... 500-600K in Japan...

FF will drive system sales, but its going to be practically impossible for it to sell 2 million in Japan if the PS3 install base is below 2 million when it debuts. First week over 1.25 mil, second under 200K.

Boogie... The game has to go off without a hitch... Review in the 8s... Have a fairly open spot in the release schedule... And a solid TV ad campaign from EA... And it will be a hit in NA on the order of 350-500K... But yeah, 120K NA wouldn't surprise me, as I don't actually expect ANY of the above to happen.

Almost that entire list of supposedly great big 360 games will sell under 2 million... Mass Effect, Bioshock, Blue Dragon, even Forza 2... I don't see those being huge hits... If any of them reach 2 mil WW I'd be impressed, and if only Forza reached even 1 mil WW, I wouldn't be totally surprised.

Killzone will bomb, but its hardly expected to do well, is it? 175 games sell 1 million copies on PS2, and people hype the sequel to one that sold, what? 600K? I agree that the PS3 version of GTA4 has an uphill battle too. I can see the 360 version outselling it 4 to 1 (still leaving it around 2 mil), and landing timed exclusivity on GTA4-2.

I expect Smash Brawl is going to decline a little bit from Melee in NA... Will debut bigger, but won't have the 5-year long legs, due to more competition for shelf space over the life of the console. Maybe does 3.3-3.5 million vs. the 4 mil of Melee. However, it will be the biggest Smash yet in Japan, doing over 2 million, due to Wiimania.