I think it comes down to 3 things

1) how well Kinect will be recieved to the public, how big will the HW boost will be because of Kinect, and the overall lasting effect of Kinect. and with a supposed $500,000,000 marketing campaign  I expect Kinect to be HUGE.

2) GT5, will it be the HW booster Sony/sony fans are expecting(don't know what Sony's expectations are..just throwing it out there)

3) I think the biggest one of them all is 2011,(well for sony) 2011 look to be a killer for Sony just with their exclusive alone, which could bring new PS3 owners in, now throw in a $50-$100 price cut for the PS3 and "all hell could break lose" lol. 2011 will be one hell of a fight between MS and Sony.

It ... won't.

That's how I've seen it all along and how I see it still now that Kinect has done what many professional analyst said it would but much, much more.  Reasonable expectations have the demand for Kinect lasting past the holiday season.  MS will need to announce more upcoming software to keep it going, though, as well as appealing to more core gamers.

But this gen has been in flux with the HD consoles all along.  It keeps coming back, though, to the PS360 gap being between 4-7 million.  It's been higher, its been lower, but that's the average.  Which, ironically, is about where the gap was when the PS3 launched.

Sony has no other aces to play that could be as significant as Kinect has been.  A price cut can be negated by MS (basically EXPECT any PS3 price cut to be matched or undercut by a respective 360 Kinect bundle) and Move will hopefully continue to be a modest success by not near on the level of Kinect.  Exclusives won't matter enough to boost sales significantly (they haven't all gen past the 1st couple of years), though Sony has announced a good number of potentially great ones.

Well that's how I see it.  My thoughts are, of course, backed by more recent numbers to make me look good.  : D

What a brave post.