maybe.

for Oct 11, 2009 to Jan 2, 2010:  wii - 11.8M, ps3 - 6.5M, 360 - 4.9M. 

it is obvious that wii will sell less than the 11.8M of last year.  I'd take 4.9M as the absolute lowest possible floor.  6.5M however sounds,...reasonable to me.  9M 6.5M = 15.5M.  If that ends up being close than 21.8M - 15.5M = 6.3M down YoY. 

so how pessimisstic are we feeling now-a-days?

i think wii should do between 7.5M to 8.5M..

6.5M is a bit too low for it in my view.. ke

My hear is broken @ wii, japan, kirby, the source

perhaps, but i was looking at the data for the wii in oct/sept 2010 and it's been in the 130k range for most of it.  Then if you look at the 360 in oct/sept 2009 it was around 150k for most of it, so the wii is tracking below the 360 last year from what i can make of the data (hard to really see with no charts).

hell, the wii could sell 1M units the week before xmas this year and still be down 1M YoY for that week.

it's all guesswork at this point but 6.5M doesn't feel too far off to me if there isn't any price cuts.

geeze. How much of the Japanese preview is legit and how much is just The Source's hopes and wishes? This is happening far too often and with the same companies involved, whats the deal here? If it was simply the market in general id expect discrepancies independent of company.

TheSource has been very optimistic about Nintendo and overly pessimistic for Sony. I think those feelings might have been responsible for the preview being so off in certain games/consoles.

I think Sony's outreach to lesser, developing markers may be partially responsible for the sales being off so frequently for Sony, just a guess though.  I wonder when we'll get a China or Latin America sales section lol.

TheSource bases his previews on two things - a sample from one single store and statistical models based on past behavior. I believe Move may be reponsible for a lot of the PS3 performance we are seeing lately, and this creates havoc with TheSource's basing himself on past statistical behavior.

That said, when looking at the large picture without routing for a specific game or console, the preview is not as much off as people make it out to be, overall.

Kirby's Epic Yarn's graphics are so good that everyone assumed it was a PS3 game and bought that system to play it :(

Am I the only one find it odd that DSiLL outsold DSi?

Expect to see LL version for 3DS very soon if that keeps up. (Wait. That's a good thing! Just not the wallet.)