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Forums - Sales - Can Halo: Reach 8 Million by 1st Jan 2011?

 

Can Halo: Reach 8 Million by 1st Jan 2011?

Yes 76 49.35%
 
No 51 33.12%
 
I see what you did there 27 17.53%
 
Total:154
Seece on 16 October 2010

I have a bet with Naz, Halo: Reach will reach 8 million by the end of the year (he also bet Machina it wouldn't reach 8 million 18 months into it's lifespan)

Am I crazy? Can it reach 8 mill by Jan 1st 2011?

Week Halo 3 Halo 3 Cumulation Halo: Reach Halo: Reach Cumulation Cumulation Total
1 3,815,444 3,815,444 4,049,971 4,049,971 234,527
2 782,396 4,597,840 817,905 4,867,876 270,036
3 327,891 4,925,731 418,873 5,286,749 361,018
4 182,792 5,108,523 257,642 5,544,391 435,868
5 123,800 5,232,323 149,626 5,694,017 461,694
6 113,878 5,346,201 110,909 5,804,926 458,725
7 108,286 5,454,487 107,812 5,912,738 458,251
8 116,219 5,570,706 116,054 6,028,792 458,086
9 172,621* 5,743,327 123,184 6,151,976 408,649
10 163,499 5,906,826      
11 207,782 6,114,608 *    
12 260,062 6,374,670      
13 297,746 6,672,416      
14 177,618** 6,850,034      
15          
16     **    


* = Black Friday
** = Last week of sales for the year

Due to how the week ends, and Reach launching a week earlier, it get's 2 weeks extra data than Halo 3.

Thoughts?



 

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Tigerlure on 16 October 2010

I don't think so. Sales are starting to really drop now. Maybe it'll get another big boost during Christmas, but it won't be enough.



Boutros on 16 October 2010

I don't think it will.

I think that would be only two weeks more than the predictions we made in this thread:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=114239&page=1

I predicted 7,550,000 for the first 10 weeks. So it will be close in my opinion but I'm guessing it won't happen.



Seece on 16 October 2010
Boutros said:

I don't think it will.

I think that would be only two weeks more than the predictions we made in this thread:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=114239&page=1

I predicted 7,550,000 for the first 10 weeks. So it will be close in my opinion but I'm guessing it won't happen.

6 Actually, and those 10 weeks don't include black friday and xmas.



 

Boutros on 16 October 2010
Seece said:
Boutros said:

I don't think it will.

I think that would be only two weeks more than the predictions we made in this thread:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=114239&page=1

I predicted 7,550,000 for the first 10 weeks. So it will be close in my opinion but I'm guessing it won't happen.

6 Actually, and those 10 weeks don't include black friday and xmas.

True. I forgot it came out 4 weeks ago :/

Then it surely will do it.



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postofficebuddy on 16 October 2010

Hmm... I'd say it has a shot at it. I'd give it 50/50 odds. It currently has a 434k lead on 3. To hit 8 million I'd say it'll need about a 800k lead by week 14. It'll probably come down to how well it does during the holidays. I suppose it also depends on if Black Ops cannibalizes any of it's sales.



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Seece on 16 October 2010
Boutros said:
Seece said:
Boutros said:

I don't think it will.

I think that would be only two weeks more than the predictions we made in this thread:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=114239&page=1

I predicted 7,550,000 for the first 10 weeks. So it will be close in my opinion but I'm guessing it won't happen.

6 Actually, and those 10 weeks don't include black friday and xmas.

True. I forgot it came out 4 weeks ago :/

Then it surely will do it.

It needs to maintain outselling it weekly, and get a bigger bump around xmas than Halo 3. HW wasn't sell anywhere near that xmas season as 2008, 2009 and likely 2010 (highest week Q4 was 580k)



 

Seece on 16 October 2010

Also I just checked, Halo 3 had a SOLID 50% (pratically didn't deviate 5% either way) through December.

If Reach also achieved that 50% attach rate, it'd sell 1.35 million over December. Around 350k higher than Halo 3.



 

nickvasko on 16 October 2010

lol i see what you did there...... and no i dont think so, its sales have decreased pretty quickly, but you never kno it mite just do so but i doubt it



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yo_john117 on 13 November 2010

Well I was going to say no but I saw that Halo Reach has an extra 2 weeks of sales so I believe its possible.