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Forums - Nintendo - Pachter Time: Wii HD a missed oportunity

LordTheNightKnight on 16 October 2010
patjuan32 said:
LordTheNightKnight said:
patjuan32 said:
Beuli2 said:

Oh common...not again...it is not because it has not HD because the Wii is falling...it is because of Nintendo who keeps releasing games like Super Mario Galaxy 2 and Mom that it keeps failing. Had it released more games like DK Returns, NSMB Wii, Mario Kart or Wii Sports the systme would be aafloat. The first half of the year the Wii was doing amazing, but then, after July, it fell apart. Why? Crappy games. It is not because THe XBox or the PS3 are stealing consumers or because third-parties aren't supporting it (have they ever, aside from some small excessions?), it is Nintendo's and only Nintendo's fault.


No, just releasing games like Dk Returns, NSMB Wii, Mario Kart or Wii Sports would not help the Wii. Those games only support one audience. The Wii needs games like Super Mario Galaxy 2 and others to support the other audience.
The variety of games and genres that a console has means that any one can find a game to play and that's what helps a console sell.

Nintendo released only a few games this year and the Wii rises and falls on the amount of games that Nintendo releases. Their Fall line up has games for every one and the sales of the Wii will pick up.


You really those are just one audience games? Have you paid attention to their system selling power, which Galaxy does not come close to?

You still need to have more games to support more gamers. Those games sell but so do other games as well. This is why games like Metroid other M and Galaxy 2 are needed even if they do not sell as well as Mario Kart and 2D mario games.


From the sales of Other M, that doesn't look like much of an audience.

Plus you seem to be implying that Galaxy and Other M fans are the same market, which is something I really got to call on. There are more than just two, or even three or four, large hemongenous groups. You also made that assumption with the other games appealing to one audience, which assumes that is the same audience.



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

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SuperAdrianK on 16 October 2010
Beuli2 said:

Oh common...not again...it is not because it has not HD because the Wii is falling...it is because of Nintendo who keeps releasing games like Super Mario Galaxy 2 and Mom that it keeps failing. Had it released more games like DK Returns, NSMB Wii, Mario Kart or Wii Sports the systme would be aafloat. The first half of the year the Wii was doing amazing, but then, after July, it fell apart. Why? Crappy games. It is not because THe XBox or the PS3 are stealing consumers or because third-parties aren't supporting it (have they ever, aside from some small excessions?), it is Nintendo's and only Nintendo's fault.


Gah! I thoguht you were Darth and that you were hacked by someone making a post like this. Then I saw your username.




              

Smidlee on 16 October 2010
nordlead said:
leatherhat said:

Well, it is. An HD wii would have been a big upgrade for the system this year and it would have sold a lot.

 

The next Nintendo system will be HD, that isn't a question. I wouldn't be shocked if Nintendo releases a console late 2011 or early 2012 only to leave MS & Sony in the dust with their last generation motion controls and sub HD graphics (1080p this generation is a joke). They'll either be forced to cling to "old" technology and hope to extend the generation or launch a new generation of consoles and try to play catchup again.

I seriously doubt that since Nintendo likes to make money from their consoles from the very beginning. PC cards that runs 1080p well are still very pricey and often have powerful CPU to back them. True, this hardware will be much cheaper in a year or two just not cheap enough for Nintendo.



LordTheNightKnight on 16 October 2010
Smidlee said:
nordlead said:
leatherhat said:

Well, it is. An HD wii would have been a big upgrade for the system this year and it would have sold a lot.

 

The next Nintendo system will be HD, that isn't a question. I wouldn't be shocked if Nintendo releases a console late 2011 or early 2012 only to leave MS & Sony in the dust with their last generation motion controls and sub HD graphics (1080p this generation is a joke). They'll either be forced to cling to "old" technology and hope to extend the generation or launch a new generation of consoles and try to play catchup again.

I seriously doubt that since Nintendo likes to make money from their consoles from the very beginning. PC cards that runs 1080p well are still very pricey and often have powerful CPU to back them. True, this hardware will be much cheaper in a year or two just not cheap enough for Nintendo.


It would take about 2013 for that to be affordable enough to at least consider.



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

MrT-Tar on 16 October 2010
Smidlee said:
nordlead said:
leatherhat said:

Well, it is. An HD wii would have been a big upgrade for the system this year and it would have sold a lot.

 

The next Nintendo system will be HD, that isn't a question. I wouldn't be shocked if Nintendo releases a console late 2011 or early 2012 only to leave MS & Sony in the dust with their last generation motion controls and sub HD graphics (1080p this generation is a joke). They'll either be forced to cling to "old" technology and hope to extend the generation or launch a new generation of consoles and try to play catchup again.

I seriously doubt that since Nintendo likes to make money from their consoles from the very beginning. PC cards that runs 1080p well are still very pricey and often have powerful CPU to back them. True, this hardware will be much cheaper in a year or two just not cheap enough for Nintendo.


The next Nintendo platform will do 1080p, I'm as sure of that as I possibly can.  Nintendo could probably make a console roughly 2-3x as powerful as the PS3, including 1080p, launch it early 2012 at £230 ($367.89) and make a decent profit.

One has to remember that the GC was more powerful by a decent degree than the PS2 and launched at £150 ($239.91)making a minor profit.




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Aielyn on 16 October 2010
ramses01 said:

You must not understand Pachter's job very well.  10% down is terrible.  Wii software is horrendous.  The handheld market is very weak compared to the past years.  You have to understand that investors need to see strong, continued growth in order to invest in stocks.  Basically, what he is saying is that given the environment, now is a good time to short stocks with large exposure to Wii and handhelds.

That IS what he's saying... unfortunately, it's entirely the wrong message.

Whether or not to invest or divest in stocks for a company should be based on FUTURE performance, not PAST performance. The Wii and DS have been performing weaker than usual SO FAR. But that's actually a good reason to INVEST in Nintendo, because it's when everyone else is selling and the price is down; meanwhile, not only does Nintendo have one of its biggest-selling franchises on the way (Zelda, early in 2011), but it has two other major releases coming for the holidays - DKCR and Epic Yarn. And in addition to this, one of the biggest other franchises in the universe, Mickey Mouse, is also coming exclusively to the Wii. And at the same time, Nintendo has the 3DS on the way.

Pachter has consistently only looked at short-term issues. This is common amongst analysts, who need to look good in the short term. But a Wii HD, for instance, would be devastating in the long term for Nintendo - they would make nowhere near as much money off it, it would be more expensive and thus sell worse, and it would split the market at a time that Nintendo needs to leverage the market. The ONLY advantage that a Wii HD would conceivably have is support from third parties... and if third parties won't make for the best-selling system of all time, what makes you think they'll support an install base that is miniscule compared with the 360/PS3? The only way that a new iteration of a console makes sense for Nintendo is if they're releasing the next generation of console, in which case it had better be more than just a Wii HD.



Smidlee on 16 October 2010
MrT-Tar said:
Smidlee said:
nordlead said:
leatherhat said:

Well, it is. An HD wii would have been a big upgrade for the system this year and it would have sold a lot.

 

The next Nintendo system will be HD, that isn't a question. I wouldn't be shocked if Nintendo releases a console late 2011 or early 2012 only to leave MS & Sony in the dust with their last generation motion controls and sub HD graphics (1080p this generation is a joke). They'll either be forced to cling to "old" technology and hope to extend the generation or launch a new generation of consoles and try to play catchup again.

I seriously doubt that since Nintendo likes to make money from their consoles from the very beginning. PC cards that runs 1080p well are still very pricey and often have powerful CPU to back them. True, this hardware will be much cheaper in a year or two just not cheap enough for Nintendo.


The next Nintendo platform will do 1080p, I'm as sure of that as I possibly can.  Nintendo could probably make a console roughly 2-3x as powerful as the PS3, including 1080p, launch it early 2012 at £230 ($367.89) and make a decent profit.

One has to remember that the GC was more powerful by a decent degree than the PS2 and launched at £150 ($239.91)making a minor profit.

The difference is this generation both PS3 and X360 used up to date graphics cards when they first came out. HD consoles has been successful of winning many PC gamers over to console. There are  less PC gamers will to pay high dollar for the lastest GPU which means they are less PC gamers driving the price of hardware down like it was in the past.  To have a system that's is 2-3 times more powerful than PS3/X360, consoles gamers will have to pay to make  up for the lack of hardcore PC gamers.

 This is one reason I believe neither Sony or Microsoft care to release a new console any time soon.



ramses01 on 16 October 2010
Aielyn said:
ramses01 said:

You must not understand Pachter's job very well.  10% down is terrible.  Wii software is horrendous.  The handheld market is very weak compared to the past years.  You have to understand that investors need to see strong, continued growth in order to invest in stocks.  Basically, what he is saying is that given the environment, now is a good time to short stocks with large exposure to Wii and handhelds.

That IS what he's saying... unfortunately, it's entirely the wrong message.

Whether or not to invest or divest in stocks for a company should be based on FUTURE performance, not PAST performance. The Wii and DS have been performing weaker than usual SO FAR. But that's actually a good reason to INVEST in Nintendo, because it's when everyone else is selling and the price is down; meanwhile, not only does Nintendo have one of its biggest-selling franchises on the way (Zelda, early in 2011), but it has two other major releases coming for the holidays - DKCR and Epic Yarn. And in addition to this, one of the biggest other franchises in the universe, Mickey Mouse, is also coming exclusively to the Wii. And at the same time, Nintendo has the 3DS on the way.

Pachter has consistently only looked at short-term issues. This is common amongst analysts, who need to look good in the short term. But a Wii HD, for instance, would be devastating in the long term for Nintendo - they would make nowhere near as much money off it, it would be more expensive and thus sell worse, and it would split the market at a time that Nintendo needs to leverage the market. The ONLY advantage that a Wii HD would conceivably have is support from third parties... and if third parties won't make for the best-selling system of all time, what makes you think they'll support an install base that is miniscule compared with the 360/PS3? The only way that a new iteration of a console makes sense for Nintendo is if they're releasing the next generation of console, in which case it had better be more than just a Wii HD.

For Pachter's clients, ONLY the short term matters.  You never invest on the down swing.  At or near the bottom yes, on the way down no.  Nintendo and the other publishers of concern are probably going to get hammered over the next 3 months so now would be the worst possible time to invest.



Pavolink on 16 October 2010
Mr.Metralha said:

A simple HD upgrade would be pathetic comparing to what Nintendo might bring us next gen.


This.

Even Reggie has told us the same sentence. Just wait for the next Nintendo homeconsole and enjoy Wii. :D



Proud to be the first cool Nintendo fan ever

Number ONE Zelda fan in the Universe

DKCTF didn't move consoles

Prediction: No Zelda HD for Wii U, quietly moved to the succesor

Predictions for Nintendo NX and Mobile


raptors11 on 16 October 2010

He's right I think. Wii sales will only be downhill from here; its already at $200 which is very low so I don't think a price drop will do that much for the Wii. It is getting some good games this year and a Zelda next year so its clearly not dead but its well past its peak.