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Forums - Sales Discussion - 10 Week Countdown 2010

non gravity, what's the formula for the data?



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what the hell increased sales so drastically in europe for ps3?

This doesn't make sense. Pro evo released 5 weeks ago, but still on the top software chart. Could that have been the factor? Emeaa is the only one that is up by such a high amount.



( (predicted - real)/real*100% plus (predicted - real)/predicted*100% )/2

and then taking the absolute number in whole points .

 

example:

Predicted 200 Real sales number 250

( (200-250)/250*100 plus (200-250)/200*100 )/2 = -22,5 = 23 points



My predictions for week 2 look horrible now! I'm dOOmezd!



2012 - Top 3 [so far]

                                                                             #1                                       #2                                      #3

      

Thanks non-gravity

i'll get them updated on the first page at the weekend.



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non-gravity said:

( (predicted - real)/real*100% plus (predicted - real)/predicted*100% )/2

and then taking the absolute number in whole points .

 

example:

Predicted 200 Real sales number 250

( (200-250)/250*100 plus (200-250)/200*100 )/2 = -22,5 = 23 points

 

Can you explain the math for me?

It's the difference between predicted and real, over the real*100 plus the difference over the predicted*100, all divided by 2?

Which means, the percentage your number needed to be the actual plus the percentage the actual needed to be your prediction, divided by 2 for two variables.

Is this a standard measure for determining accuracy?

I understand the second part is standard forecast accuracy equation. What is the first part? ie: why divide by the actual?

Also, because percentages of actual and real scale based on the values of the inputs, isn't it skewed towards things that have higher sales?

predicted: 200, real:250

( (200-250)/250*100 plus (200-250)/200*100 )/2 = -22,5 = 23 points

predicted : 400, real: 450

( (400-450/450*100 plus (400-450/400*100)/2=11.11 12.5 = 11.8 = 12 points

EDIT: ah nevermind the questions about the formula, it's an average to smooth out bias towards under and over predicting.



I am just happy I am ahead of THEPROF00!!!!



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

darthdevidem01 said:

I am just happy I am ahead of THEPROF00!!!!


GT5 release will vindicate me!

I'm honestly surprised that Sony is increasing sales even with overinflated sales from move that should be at least slowing down by now.



theprof00 said:
darthdevidem01 said:

I am just happy I am ahead of THEPROF00!!!!


GT5 release will vindicate me!

I'm honestly surprised that Sony is increasing sales even with overinflated sales from move that should be at least slowing down by now.

Your confusing yourself....those sales for PS3 aren't over-inflated.....thats just how it is now.

PS3 has seen a rise in sales....and now its seeing the usual holiday rise....which was actually lower than the others though.



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

wow, why the hell can't I paste in format while excel is open? 

This is the difference in actual numbers if anyone is interested.

 

jonop 17.8

BHR-3 22.8

postofficebuddy 23.8

Michael-5 26.8

darthdevidem01 27.4

theprof00 27.8

snfr 29.8

TWRoO 29.8

kopstudent89 31.8

non-gravity 31.8

koffieboon 32.8

Carl2291 36.8

haxxiy 39.8

Veggie 39.8

Rainbow Yoshi 41.4

Luthor 44.2

smeags 44.8