Microsoft and Nintendo to launch 2011 - 2013. Sony to launch a year later as they have to get psp2 out of the door and recoup some of their massive ps3 investments.
All three are facing global constrains that will inevitably dictate all of the machines designs. Some important constrains are:
A)The growing importance of digital delivery.
B)The huge costs of making AAA games and the continuing economic climate
C)The power of third parties. The machines need to be similar enough in specs so that third party games can be ported easily between the machines. To this end Im sure theres a lot of industrial information exchange, 'spying' if you want, going on.
D)The growing trend of games-as -a service rather then simple products. Thus lots of DLC, paid online and conitinuous revenue streams over the lifetime of a game.
E)The expansion of the gaming audience and the growing older of core gamers.
F)The importance of online multiplayer and especially anything to do with community building, customization and social networks.
On top of these each manufacturer will want to differentiate themselves somehow and also leverage their brand appeal.
Ill just do Nintendo for now
Nintendo will want a low cost, quiet and efficient box with a unique hook. Motion controls will remain and be further refined. I think what N really wants to deliver is 3D machine without the need for glasses. Whether the technology will be there in the 2011-2013 timeframe to achieve this I dont know. A further problem is that it will have to be at a mass market pricepoint, at least relative to the other two. In this sense Nintendo is playing the waiting game with 3D technology progress and probably now wish that the Wii was a bit more future proof as the HD systems seem to be gaining pace with respect to the Wii. I expect visual quality to be just a step above the PS3, i.e. similar to the psp - 3ds gap and looking like a pc game at moderate specs today, i.e. 720p @ 60fps with good anti aliasing and custom shaders. The games will be delivered either by a custom optical disc holding 10 - 15 GB or at a push blu-ray (although i consider the later highly unlikely). Good chance of Wii backwards compatibility bounded by the constraints of the hardware architecture used. Incremental improvement of the online system again with an emphasis on usability and security, SD card storage with, unfortunately, just a small internal hard disk. Nintendo will desire higher business volume with third parties. We will get the usual high quality core Nintendo brans, Mario, Zelda, Metroid, e.t.c. plus new iterations of their family friendly lines. Im hoping for original core IP's but dont hold much hope for that. Instead what I foresse is more third party collaborations with companies like Retro, team Ninja etc.
