@ ironman - I'm gonna stop quoting because we now have a fairly imposing wall of text between us. I hope you still read this despite the lack of orange text.

Customers are still buying the consoles in decent numbers, true. But the release of next gen hardware will cut down on that to a large degree. The 3DS is getting incredible 3rd party support from what we've heard so far, certainly more than the DS in term of hardcore games aimed at the 18 year old male market. Where the developers go, the gamers will too. Like it or not, handhelds and consoles are a part of the same market.

What did I tell you in my last post, The handheld market has very little (if anything) to do with the console market, that's like saying people buying the new phones with HD video capabilities are going to stop buying HD TVs.

It is true that Kinect has been marketed more than Move, although I still think we should wait before assuming it will be huge. As for the argument of 'games will eventually come to Kinect/Move that will sell hardware'. I have yet to see either an increase in 3rd party support for the PS360 as a result of these controllers, nor have I even seen any games that look likely to push lots of hardware. I could be wrong, completely misinterpreting the idea of move and kinect, and the degree to which they will be supported this generation, but I doubt it.

Considering Move has not been out for long and Kinnect hasn't hit shelves yet, I don't think you are in any position to make the claim that they won't be supported. I don't know about Move, but  Ido know Kinect already has an imporessive lineup of games. Now, I don't expect either motion control system to sell consoles on a huges scale, but the numbers will be enough to keep this gen afloat for a few more years.

The 360 had already been in development for a long time when Nvidia stopped making the parts for the xbox. I am under the impression that Nvidia's move came without much warning for MS, and thus they can't have changed their plans too much when it occurred.

Remember RROD, that was the result of rushing, as soon as any company gets a console dialed in they will begin working on the next one, but right now, the technology isn't advanced enough to make a large enough leep to an entirely new console, so it's all R&D at this point.

It's purely subjective whether motion controls add to or subtract from a game or genre, but it seems the majority have spoken, and the word is motion.

XD no, the majority is saying motion control will suck for FPS, action adventure, and racing. It's fine for the stuff that gets put out on the wii (although there is some debate about that in the Wii camp) But for stuff that gets put out on the two HD consoles, it isn't going to add much, the normal controller will remain a staple for hard core games. I mean can you imagine using Natal for a 24 hour Halo party, after about 20 min of running in place, or strafting, you will get tired and go back the to Cheeto and Red Bull stained beanbag and play with a regular controller. How about Gears of War? Dodging, throwing, ducking, once again, 20 Min. tops. Racing it could work for, but in the end, having a sturdy mounted wheel, or being able to precisly control you car with a thumbstick is what hard core race fans are going to use. Is motion controll innovative, yeah, is it cool, definately, has it been perfected to the point that it can fully substitute a regular game pad, no.

This has all most no chance of happening: microsoft isn't stupid, they know that if they release xbox 3 that early then when ps4 comes along 2 or 3 years later the xbox will have no chance of competing.

We can go back and forth on this without ever reaching an agreement, but your comparison is not apt. It's like saying that PCs and laptop sales do not effect each other. Your analogy is not even close.

No, Laptops and PCs are very much alike, consoles and handhelds are very differant, my analogy was fine

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Kinect_games

Tell me what from that will be both big and exclusive, which is required for a game to push hardware. Forza 4 is the only one I can see there and it's not the first on the 360 so hardware impact will be low. That is of course unless MS can convince the casual market that Kinect is superior to the Wii.

I never said big, I said it had an impressive lineup. which will only grow. You can't look at the "now" numbers and expect them to be stagnant.

So you're saying that Moore's law has finally broken! That is indeed an amazing claim, for which I would require much more than you merely claiming it in a forum post with no evidence. Fact is, technology is advancing now as quickly as it was last gen, and the gen before etc, thus this gen, from a technical perspective, has no reason to last longer than the previous one.

Did you not read what I wrote, I said technology has not advanced enough to warrant a new console. I did not say technology had not advanced. Please read what I say before making ridiculous claims such as this. At any rate, even if I were to agree with you on the technical aspect, from a business standpoint, it's stupid to start the next gen so soon. And let's face it both MS and Sony are in the end, in this for business reasons.

Your attitude towards motion controlled gaming just goes to prove my point. There are sensible ways to make motion controlled games, and then there are the ways you mentioned - devs need experience with motion controls now to make good games next gen.

You may be correct, I'm not going to argue that point, however, the devs could just as well experiment next gen without having any adverse affects. The HD twins Motion control has very little to do with giving devs experiance, and everything to do with stretching out this gen and giving the Wii some competition.

Additionally, you are either mistaken about the meaning of the word 'precision' or about the specifications of the 3 major motion controls. I can guarentee that motion controls are more precise. In order to turn full lock on a racing game (assuming we're talking about one that is controlled using a motion controller to mimic a steering wheel) you must move your hands aprroximately 20 cm. In order to provide the same lock from a control stick, you must move your thumb approximately 2 cm. If you move 2 cm in the motion controlled case, you get 1/10th lock. This means that a motion controller is, in this example, 10 times as precise

No, no and no. The controls themselves are very precise, we've seen this in demos, but do you know how hard it is to aim when you have nothing tangible, or just a small wand in your hand, how about steering a car, the tendancy tgo oversteer without a wheel or thumbstick is very great, this is what I meant when I said the controlls were not precise enough for most hard core games. I certainly could have worded it better, but give me a break, I was posting at 4:00 A.M.

However, I shall give you the benefit of the doubt and respond as if you used the word accurate, which actually means what you think precise means. In that case, I would say that you have no had enough experience with PSmove, the Wii motion or Kinect in order to judge how accurate they are, because, frankly, if you had, we wouldn't be having this conversation. That is why it is vital that MS and Sony get their motion controllers into the hands of as many gamers as possible - they need to show what an advantage it gives you in competitive play, and how fun it is in social play. You are the reason kinect is out now.

The will has the advantage of controller addons and games that compensate for the inneficiancies of the human error. Move and Kinnect have games such as Forza and GT that require great precision and accuracy, something that the human body cannot achive without extensive training and tangibles. Have you played Mario cart with just the wiimote, no wheel attatchment or anything? I'm sure if you did, you would at least be fighting the tendancies to oversteer, and that game takes nowhere near the level of precision and accuracy Foza and GT do. I know because I have played both Mario cart and Forza 3.

While I disagree with some of the OP, the basic idea I agree with. I can see the next iteration of consoles rolling out around the 2012/13 time frame.