As a lifelong gamer with no experience working in the industry, I have a few observations and questions:
1. How much does culture factor in?
The current CEO of Sony is Howard Stringer a Welsh-born American businessman. Does Nintendo not having a Western businessman leading the entire company, not just SCEA, from the top down factor in on decisions regarding 3rd parties? Nintendo has Reggie Fils-Aime for their North American division. Would putting Reggie in Iwata's position make the corporate culture at Nintendo more conducive to 3rd party support for Nintendo?
2. Speaking of 3rd party support, why do we ignore the 800 lb. gorilla in the room, the DS, which has sold close to twice the number of Wiis?
If you propose that Nintendo has no 3rd party support, then be fair and analyze the library of the DS. It could be that handhelds are Nintendo's most profitable enterprise, thus all their efforts for 3rd party support go there instead of the Wii because of games like Wii Sports, Wii Play, and Wii Fit selling obscene numbers in the 20 plus million range make 3rd party support less attractive.
3. With the success of games like Wii Sports, Wii Play, and Wii Fit, why would it be wise for Nintendo to pursue 3rd party support when they have already produced exclusives which no Modern Warfare game could ever hope to aspire to in sheer sales?
I have to be a bit contrarian here. I understand the want for 3rd party support for Nintendo from the perspective as a Western consumer, but how would 3rd party support really help Nintendo when Nintendo has a different business plan than either Sony or Microsoft?
4. Does 3rd party support lead to a Red Ocean?
If all 3 console makers viciously court 3rd parties during the next generation, then would it lead to a red ocean competition where a sale of Modern Warfare 4 on a Sony console leads to one less Modern Warfare 4 game being sold on Nintendo's console or Microsoft's console and vice versa? If so, then what is the benefit to the console maker who can create 20 million sellers on their own? What is the incentive for them to dive into that Red Ocean?
I see the incentive for the game developer, I just don't see the same gain for Nintendo.
Personally, I think 3rd party support is great, but not necessary. The interests of the console makers are not the same interests of the game developers. Game developers want to create games on all 3 consoles because doing so enables them access to the largest possible market. On the other hand, Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft benefit from exclusives defining their "experience."
The best possible gain I can see from 3rd party support is buying the game developers outright. Nintendo gets no credit if Treyarch's game does good on all 3 consoles. Where Nintendo would get credit and more hardware sales if they bought a 3rd party like Treyarch with Treyarch making games exclusive for the Nintendo attracting new Nintendo buyers.