The standings as at 12 Sept 2010:

PS3 5.591 million

360 1.385 million

360 needs 115K, PS3 needs 909K

PS3 needs to average a 7.9:1 sales ratio with 360.

LTD to date sales ratio is ~4:1

2010 sales ratio to date: 6.54:1

previous 12 months to date sales ratio: 8.75:1

11 Sept 2009 - 2 Jan 2010 sales ratio: 12.95:1

I don't see PS3 having a Q4 2010 anything like its Q4 2009, and I think 360's Q4 2010 will be about the same as Q4 2009. So unlikely either of them will make it to their respective targets before 2011.

I think given the sales period we're heading in to PS3 should sell at a higher ratio than its current 2010 ratio. I think it could increase to ~8:1 and so I think PS3 should get there first.

Another close to call milestone is 10 million PS3 vs 2 million 360. The gen should last long enough for both to get to those landmarks. That one could be taken out by 360, though with another PS3 price cut coming well before either of the consoles makes those targets PS3 would probably pull ahead a lot at that point. So too many unknowns to make a poll about that. Maybe this time next year such a poll could be made if it's still a competitive question.

No another FF13 in Q4 2010 

so no

Microsoft has done a LOT to try and win more of the Japanese audience, sadly it hasn't worked as well as they hoped. With Nintendo bagging the next DQ title on Wii, I'd say when that hits oth will be dwarfed again by Nintendo. But so far this year Sony have been doing well.

Disagreed.  PS3 won't last long enough to essentially double it's userbase in Japan... 360 has a better chance of hitting 2m though, as that's only a 50% increase really, but I still doubt even that happens.

I don't think Wii will hit 15m either now, which just a year ago I figured was a sure thing in time.

GT5 will put PS3 over 100k some weeks.

PS3 = 20 weeks to get.
360 = 30 weeks to get.

GT5 can be a serious HW seller...and the pre orders in Japan are now in second gear so yeah it will be close :).

FFXIII will do a little to spur 360 long term sales and with a cheaper price tag they could start hitting the 4k mark weekly. The Arcade is yet to even launch there and Kinect might just be a success or at the least bring in some new people to the system. 1.5 million for the 360 could help them a lot, at that much userbase, exclusives could sell pretty decently.

Either way, theres no point speculating the future of the PS3, right now its number 1 system there in every way possible =D