At present we don't even know if that "first day 40k" is comprehensive of the x360 bundle or not...i think you shouldn't be that confident about final HW numbers.

I predict 30k HW for the week.

We will see. Personally I think it would be around 17k. It depends on how many X360/BD owners sell their console and rebuy new one now.

Issun - as far as I know/knew, alot of the X360 owners that picked up Blue Dragon at or near launch, sold their systems for lack of other titles.

Hopefully, they re-buy and keep the X360 now.

With such a tepid start, sales will *probably* be closer to 20-30k hardware. However, I guess the question is what the difference between MC and Famitsu is this week.

The historical list of first day sales vs. weekly sales:

Halo 3 (45k) - 60k via MGC (I think?)
Blue Dragon (43k) - 83k
Lost Odyssey (40k)
Ace Combat 6 (35k) - 77k via MC numbers, 67k via VGC/Famitsu #s.
Assassain's Creed (20k) - 40k via MC numbers, 32k via VGC/Famitsu #s.
Winning Eleven (7k) - 12k via MC numbers.

I'll add a few more later. But it shows where the historical numbers are. Lately, X360 games (since Halo 3) have had pretty good multipliers. FFXI's expansion had a opening of 4k, and wound up with 12-13k total.

Using similar numbers, I would say that LO should do better than AC6. However, that just depends on which chart. Famitsu should say 75k, and MC could say upwards of 85-90k if trends hold true.

I dont believe the Xbox360 will pass 30k
and I dont expect the PS3 to decrease under 30k
we will see

:( it won't make 110k first week

Since today i proclaim: x360 IS NOW DEAD OFFICIALY in Japan! =))

Hardware depends on one factor. If you have Japanese taste and live in Japan, you will start counting the upcoming games. How many great games for X360 that have potential to sell good are left for Japan? Maybe Cry On or Ninja Gaiden 2. That is why I think the hardware will not make 40k like it did when BD hit the market. On the other hand, I predict 200k for Lost Odyssey.

Hardware won't be as big for LO as BD if software sales are the same. Regardless of system, it's always a matter of "diminishing returns" for hardware sales. The more users a system has, the smaller effect a single given game has to spike a system. Early in the PS3 and X360's lifecycle (and even this year for the X360), a game selling 40-50k on opening week had a considerable impact on hardware sales.

For the PS3, as of now, the same sales of a game has a negligible effect. For the DS, you have to get a game selling more than 250,000 units to have an impact. Even with SMG, we saw it do 250k units and only move ~20k hardware units. Could you imagine how much hardware the X360 would move if a game debuted at 250k software on week 1?

And as for upcoming X360 games in Japan that might actually matter:

Ninja Gaiden 2 (should do real well)
Infinite Undiscovery
Cry On
Blue Dragon 2
Idol Master 2

Those are the games on the short list of must-have games next year (but I have no idea if BD2 will launch next year).

Of course, there are a few multi-plat games that are going to be big too:

The Last Remnant
Devil May Cry 4
Resident Evil 5

(and all the rumors about SH5 for X360, ect) might be big too. But I have no idea how multi-plats will effect X360 hardware before it actually debuts.

Blue Dragon 2 think that is 2009/2010