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Forums - Sales Discussion - Xbox 360: 2008 VS 2010 - 2nd Half

Seece on 28 August 2010
gekkokamen said:

I still doubt it will outsell 2008  (shrugs)


It's reaching the point where that really isn't logical.

I estimate by end of September it'll be up YOY by 1.7 million, at worst I see 360 at 160k over October, losing 100k max, so 1.6 mill.

So for the Q4, it'd have to be pretty awful to be lower ...



 

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Seece on 28 August 2010
postofficebuddy said:

After seeing this week's EMEAA numbers I can't see the 360 matching the 2008 holiday. It's going to start being dramatically down in that region compared to 2008 come the end of September. And I still suspect we're overtracking it in that region. I stand by my 500k up on 2008 prediction.


same old same old from you, "overtracked blah blah", Others sales are fine, and not the main driving force for X360 sales over xmas anyway.



 

postofficebuddy on 28 August 2010
Seece said:
postofficebuddy said:

After seeing this week's EMEAA numbers I can't see the 360 matching the 2008 holiday. It's going to start being dramatically down in that region compared to 2008 come the end of September. And I still suspect we're overtracking it in that region. I stand by my 500k up on 2008 prediction.


same old same old from you, "overtracked blah blah", Others sales are fine, and not the main driving force for X360 sales over xmas anyway.


I said 'suspect'. I never stated our numbers are off. I'll gladly concede my error if Gfk proves my suspicion unfounded. :edit: And before you go accusing me of bias, Source thinks it won't match holiday '08 either.



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Mendicate Bias on 28 August 2010
kowenicki said:
wholikeswood said:

Clearly missed BHR's sarcasm.

Anyway, I expect the 360 to post a 1mil week in December, for sure.

To be fair that sarcasm may have been easy to miss in a climate where Pachter and our own The Source are currently predicting a worse second half for the 360 this year than last.

I remember The Source saying something to the effect of the 360 should be reaching saturation soon since everyone that previously had a xbox has already bought one at this point, after the 360 had passed about 25 million in sales. Then a short while later if I remember correctly he predicted the 360 to level out around 40 million life time sales.

What we say about other sales analyzers holds true for our own too, sometimes they have such a narrow view on the market the predictions they make are laughable. I wouldn't hold too much stock in what they say, this gen has repeatedly proven to be unpredictable. 



                                           

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Seece on 03 September 2010

Updated, if X360 remained flat with 2008 sales from this week onwards, X360 2010 sales would peak at 12.6/7 million.



 

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Darth Tigris on 03 September 2010

Anybody not surprised/impressed with how the redesign has been selling isn't being honest with themselves.

Burning questions:

- What effect will Halo Reach have on sales?

- Will there be a price cut of $50?

- What effect will Kinect have on sales?

Anybody that looks at those and say they will have no effect need only to look back at the effect of the redesign . . .



Squilliam on 03 September 2010
Darth Tigris said:

Anybody not surprised/impressed with how the redesign has been selling isn't being honest with themselves.

Burning questions:

- What effect will Halo Reach have on sales?

- Will there be a price cut of $50?

- What effect will Kinect have on sales?

Anybody that looks at those and say they will have no effect need only to look back at the effect of the redesign . . .

Halo Reach? -> Probably 2-300k sales overall spread over 3-4 weeks.

-Price cut? -> Probably the typical 40 Euro rebate and the Black Friday sales might be deeper.

Kinect? -> WIll probably sell 500k Xbox 360s. Many Arcade buyers may upgrade to Kinect instead when they buy their console as its better value with a console.



Tease.

iHuGi on 03 September 2010
postofficebuddy said:
Seece said:
postofficebuddy said:

After seeing this week's EMEAA numbers I can't see the 360 matching the 2008 holiday. It's going to start being dramatically down in that region compared to 2008 come the end of September. And I still suspect we're overtracking it in that region. I stand by my 500k up on 2008 prediction.


same old same old from you, "overtracked blah blah", Others sales are fine, and not the main driving force for X360 sales over xmas anyway.


I said 'suspect'. I never stated our numbers are off. I'll gladly concede my error if Gfk proves my suspicion unfounded. :edit: And before you go accusing me of bias, Source thinks it won't match holiday '08 either.

yeah right dude... i would love if Gfk reports more 360 Sold than VGC... haha

Anyway Americas is the driving force for Xbox and it will be a killer year for 360 there and also in EMEAA... Remember thw new 360 hasnt yet Reached Korea etc...



Seece on 10 September 2010

Now 1.7 million ahead of it's current peak year.

Could possibly drop next week, but should be up over rest of September.



 

Seece on 09 October 2010

Still on target for a 12.5 million plus year.