I disagree a lot there. First, The Wii was never that strong in Japan. In 2008, it's best year, it sold 3 million. In 2009, it sold 2 million. It's a big drop in terms of relativity, but the system wasn't preforming that great overthere, esspecially when compaired to the US and Others. Nintendo will not launch unless they think Sony will launch. 2011 is far too early for even Sony. 2012 is most likely because it would be the most plausable for Sony to launch then.

As for Microsoft, don't try to tell their strategy. They change it every so often. They would only say "10 year life cycle," to copy Sony. They stole Reggie's 06 speech in their E3 09 conference. Kinect is going to kill Microsoft and the amount of talk from Microsoft on it is proof of that. Everyone thought their press conference was bad. And people from Microsoft keep saying how it's like Super Mario Brothers and will change everything. A fire broke out in their core market, and since Microsoft is retarded in the game business, they will not know how to put it out and will crumble.

@HappySqurriel: Remember the SNES was more powerful than the Genesis. But it was Donkey Kong Country that made the winner. I think it has less to do with power and more to do with software. You can attribute evert generation to software. Nintendo's success now is very much about software.

Well here's the way I see it...

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 13th Nov 2005 to 11th Nov 2006:

That's the period in which the Xbox 360 and the Ps2 were on the market together prior to the Ps3's launch....I think we can all see that the Ps2 was still going strong far into that generation change...Maybe the Ps3 can do the same thing again?

Eh, "ever that strong" in Japan?  Until 2H 2008, Wii was actually outselling PS2 even launch aligned iirc, NO system has ever sold as well as Wii did upfront in Japan (not SFC, not PS2, not even DS).  The problem with maintaining that level of sales momentum was software support (both 1st and 3rd party), which is what directly led to the current Wii malaise in Japan.  Iwata's actually spoken on the issue at length.

At this point, I don't think Nintendo's even that concerned with Sony, even console side.  They'll launch Wii 2 next fiscal year for the same reasons they're launching 3DS this fiscal year; they can make more money with a new machine than the current one, piracy is steadily eating into their current bases and the timing gives them an opportunity to regroup and bring the 3rd parties back en masse.  Despite being huge worldwide, Nintendo also always looks to their home market first, and in Japan Wii definitely more than winding down (and basically abandoned by 3rd parties) now...

For Microsoft, I see Kinect as mainly a stall tactic and grab for some casual dollars.  They'll probably include Kinect in Xbox 3 as well though.   And despite their disasterous E3 conference, I don't think the hardcore are going to abandon MS overnight either... they'll wait for Sony because it's financially in thier interests to, for Nintendo it's basically the opposite.

I'm very disappointed by MS not trying to use Kinect mostly for more or less obvious things that would be better on it. Copying Wii games will kill it, while it could easily become leader of dance games and a lot of sports games too, but they must not by any means copy Wii games, because a controller so different implies that copying games taylored for another won't work at its best. Kinect could furtherly enlarge the gaming market if used in the best and most suitable ways for it, using it just to disturb Wii and possibly PS3 too and just grabbing a slice of casual market is wasting it. Yes, used properly it could grab some market from Balance Board, but it would do it on a part of market that Balance Board, not allowing full body movement, couldn't fully exploit anyway, so it would be more constructive for the market.

Yes, MS can present more original games later, but wouldn't it make more sense showing its full potential since its official presentation, instead of trying to make it a jack of all trades with abundant Wii rip-offs?

this kinda reminded me of the US versus Soviet tank upgrades during the cold war.......the US would update its tanks ever 10-15 years and the soviets every 5-8.  The US made revolutionary upgrades to its tanks while the Soviets made evolutionary ones and ended up spending a lot more on R&D etc to keep its product going.          

No Sony and wasn't disruptive at all with PS1 or 2, those were sustaining.

Except the next Nintendo system won't just be a 3D, HD upgrade

Except Sony doesn't really do anything special with their upgrades, its just more power, nothing else, Nintendo on the other hand, changes the nature of the beast with their advances

Why?

And if the next Wii is just an 3D and HD upgrade or not..., well, no one knows, but I think there is a big chance that it could end like this.

Sure, they all innovate.  I would call kinect innovation.  I would call Wii motion control as well as the Blu-ray and 3d initives by Sony as innovation.  And 3d is a darn good strategy, as its going to basically force all 3d movies to be in blu-ray, and for movie theatres to buy sony's 3d projectors, and increase the market for 3d stuff in general.  It's a really broad reaching campaign that is going to do well.   I mean motion control vs that? wtf ,  it doesn't even compare lol

Just like they did with the N64 and GameCube, right?