| jarrod said: Honestly, looking at timelines I think it's likely Wii 2 will launch first (Wii fell in Japan in 2008 and hasn't really regained much ground since, and Nintendo always looks to their home market when planning launch cycles) and it may come as soon as Q4 2011. In terms of hardware spec, Wii 2 will likely be just a normal generational upgrade, meaning there won't be as much pressure on Sony & Microsoft to push to their next cycles right away. This will also likely benefit 3rd parties, as they'll now have 3 consoles to launch games across and share costs/risk with rather than just 2, though it might also result in the 3rd placer getting squeezed out GameCube-style as the gen goes on and Wii 2 gains ground. Like with 3DS vs PSP, you can probably also expect Wii 2 spec to be a decent increase over PS3/360 capability, and probably with a focus on developer ease of use. Microsoft's timeline I think depends entirely on how Kinect fares though. They're in no hurry to rush the cycle, they've clearly shifted priority to profitability and MS PR has even espoused their own "10 year cycle" for 360. Xbox 3 will probably launch alongside PS4, the only way I can see it launching earlier is if Kinect utterly bombs and the current 360 market basically dries up next year, in which case a Q4 2012 launch might be possible. But that looks pretty unlikely imo. |
I disagree a lot there. First, The Wii was never that strong in Japan. In 2008, it's best year, it sold 3 million. In 2009, it sold 2 million. It's a big drop in terms of relativity, but the system wasn't preforming that great overthere, esspecially when compaired to the US and Others. Nintendo will not launch unless they think Sony will launch. 2011 is far too early for even Sony. 2012 is most likely because it would be the most plausable for Sony to launch then.
As for Microsoft, don't try to tell their strategy. They change it every so often. They would only say "10 year life cycle," to copy Sony. They stole Reggie's 06 speech in their E3 09 conference. Kinect is going to kill Microsoft and the amount of talk from Microsoft on it is proof of that. Everyone thought their press conference was bad. And people from Microsoft keep saying how it's like Super Mario Brothers and will change everything. A fire broke out in their core market, and since Microsoft is retarded in the game business, they will not know how to put it out and will crumble.
@HappySqurriel: Remember the SNES was more powerful than the Genesis. But it was Donkey Kong Country that made the winner. I think it has less to do with power and more to do with software. You can attribute evert generation to software. Nintendo's success now is very much about software.
