good number for xbox 360 s

While I understand your rationale, I'm not sure I agree with your analysis.  Let me see if I can offer a counter view (let me say up front that I agree that the 900% boost will be short lived):

1)  Assuming the numbers above are accurate, the 360S significantly outsold it's older (and now cheaper) bretheren: that would indicate that the release of the new title was not the primary factor (actually, I would say the release of the title confounds any specific analysis).  Specifically, if the Japanese public ONLY wanted a 360 to play MH, there were much cheaper alternatives then the "S" sku.  So the increased sales of the 360S would suggest that this sku is somewhat resonating with the japanese market.

2)  Japan is bsically a lost region to Microsoft; the fact that they CAN invigorate sales to this level in a market that has, for the most part, ignored their offerings IS something to take notice of.  I agree that still being third in the region is not the best outcome, but being third by a couple thousand rather than 15-16K is a step forward.  EVEN if the long term affect is only a baseline of say 4K a week, vs 1500 a week, that IS improvement.

I am not claiming that the "S" is the second coming of Christ, or anything like that, I understand that initial demand will diminish to more reasonable levels in ALL markets.  But I don't think Microsoft is too down on the performance they achieved this week in Japan either.

So Wii is down YoY already despite being cheaper? It will be good to see if any of the games it's getting in July will help it, because when we align years, at the launch week of MHTri it will be seeing a big YoY drop.

Xenoblade with 13k this week, nice.

Nintendo should release additional color variants (pink, blue, silver, etc) with big upcoming games (Kirby, DQM, Inazuma 11, etc).    I think July will be better than last year, but August is going to have a HUGE drop.  

Also, something I noticed but the "Toukagi" version of KOF2002UM is just a rebranded reprint, not a new game really, so it's sales should probably be added to KOF2002UM.

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Yah - good points and I did consider them.  In the end my thinking is that there is little sign that price point made a huge difference for 360 at this point, hence the lack of draw of the old, cheaper model over the new, and that therefore any 360 purchases on the back of MH would be Slim in preference to the old model (basically I'm taking the view it's likely that in Japan a higher price for better reliability plus better feature set would be more attractive than getting an unpopular model cheap).

I'm also of the view that apart from a bigger HDD and the Wifi there is nothing that makes the slim different overall - so unless Japanese buyers were purely put off by fear of RROD (which I think at this point must be minimal) there would be little reason for the Slim to be that much more popular.

So in the end I decided that MH must be the driving causal factor, not the Slim, and that the Slim was chosen in preferrence to the old model by new purchasers wanting MH for the reasons given.

I could of course be wrong - and if I am we'll know next week and I'll eat a little crow (only a small one mind) gladly and add the new data to my view on the region.

However, with the Slim for sure seeming to be viewed as a much better, reliable 360 then I think it is fair to expect the baseline sales to be higher even if not this kind of higher.

It's the US were all the real action for the 360 is I think - Japan is just an interesting distraction right now unless those sales hold.  In EMEA we should see some spikes but I think these will be less than US and die out quicker.

In EMEA plenty of deals have put the Arcade in the range of the price reductions, so while there has been a boost it's been fairly modest.  For the same reasons as Japan I don't expect (maybe UK excepted) the Slim to suddenly have a much higher baseline for the same product with WiFi and a bigger HDD.  The region I feel is still skewed towards Wii and PS3.

In US though I think it could get very interesting.  In EMEA and Japan the next big test will be the Move/Kinect launches and I with those I'm expecting more signs of a split market - Move to take off better (probably helped by releasing first) in EMEA and Japan but Kinect proving more popular in US.

Basically, I really think we have a split market over the three regions that just isn't going to vanish anytime soon in favour of one of the major players.

You do know it is shinny and black right?

It is. Dont start any rubbsih talk here. It's the most advanced tech of the 3.