Sitting there watching the presser, as a multi-console owner/player (360/PS3/PC) and nearly 7-year Gold member and a 7.5 year Xbox user, I was struck by a few things:

1.  The conference was clearly not for us, the core gamers.  A couple years ago, this would have bothered me immensely, the way most of us reacted when it seemed perhaps Nintendo forgot about us.  But we are 5 years into the generation, and the core gamers have largely made their choice by now.  When the catalog sizes are as big as they are now, with the vast majority of games being multi-platform, nothing they could show today would move the core audience worldwide one way or another.  

The goal now, for all the companies, needs to be to expand the audience, and it that respect, Microsoft is following a sound strategy.  If this were a new launch cycle, the conference would be an F-.  At this point in the cycle, I'd say it's a solid B.  

Remember that Gears 3 + Halo Reach + Fable III by themselves is likely 15-20 million exclusive software sales coming their way in the 7 months from September to April.  

2.  As a single, childless gamer in his 30's, Kinect does almost nothing for me. (I do like the video chat/fun-with menus stuff.)   But as I sat there watching, I knew full well that if I were in the 5-14 age range, I would have been ALL OVER those games.  If they would have had that Star Wars experience when I was 8, I might've died.  And I'm going to be totally honest.  I want to play with that tiger even now and see what my real cat has to say about it.  My little nieces are going to absolutely beg for that dancing game (which I will likely get for them for Xmas with a Kinect, since they have a box already).

If I were buying a game for my kids, I would love to have them running around in front of the TV.  The Wii has been successful along those lines when it launched.

If I were a parent looking to buy a console, the 360 has now been positioned to be the best option for the whole family.  I know I sound like douchebag Don Mattrick here, but it's true.  I can play COD and Gears when the kids go to bed and finish playing the river rafting game.  Wife-y can do yoga in a very interesting way (with DLC, to be sure, versus new Wii Fit/EA Active editions every year or two).

If I were just joining gaming now, for me, alone, I'd likely buy a PS3. But as I said - - 5 years in, those people have made their choices or are going to buy what their friends have to play along.

3.  The mainstream press is eating it up, even as the gaming press wrinkles its collective noses.  My 66-year old mom saw a guy gushing about it on the Chicago-area morning news and was impressed enough that she called me to talk about it.  (This from a woman using AOL dial-up and who can't use on-demand programming on her cable box.)

WHY they are in trouble.

4.  On the flipside, the 360 is doing everything pretty well and arguable nothing exceptionally, with the exception of Live.  It could still face marketing issues overcoming the shooterbox/hardcore branding they established early on, especially with the happy bunny Wii feelings out there.  And on the flipside, it's not the new hotness of the hardcore the way the PS3 is.

5.  PRICE>>>>  my kid cries out for the fun Kinect stuff.  If I am starting from scratch with no console, $299 + $149 plus games is a lot for what the Wii is doing, albeit, I'd argue, less successfully at this point. 

6.  If we add #1 and #4 together, they can be contradictory and pose difficulties.  360 needs to rebrand to expand the market and grab a share of the new gamers that Wii has mostly captured.  Yet it may be too late for them to really make a dent - - and to do so in a way that doesn't alienate the base.  They need the Live money from memberships and DLC to keep rolling in, and they need to keep the core interested along the way for three more years until the launch of Xbox 3.  

7.  The people doing some of the tastemaking - - the gaming press and we gaming fanboys - are going to make fun of the programmer guy dancing and Kudo's shoes and the like, instead of getting positive buzz word-of-mouth that comes out of these shows often.  Kinect is going to start having to prove itself beyond what we saw today.

I think it's an interesting and somewhat necessary gamble here on MS' part.  But it is a gamble, indeed.  

I was watching the Microsoft Conference on Spike TV and my 4 year old daughter was playing in the same room.  She went absolutely crazy over Kinectimals.  She made rewind it four times to watch it over and over.  As soon as I heard about the virtual pet idea coming to "Natal" I thought it would be interesting.  But even I had a smile on my face watching the demo.   Microsoft has a winner with that piece of software.  The concept may be nothing new, but the level of interactivity is insane.

Agreed.  That tiger is the cuteness.

Its a cool thing. Now we just have to see what happens when real people get their hands on it first time. It really doesn't matter what we say about it. All that matters is how real people find it in the real world.

Hmmm .... different people are naming different killer apps.  Some say the SW game, some say Kinectimals and some (like me) say Dance Central.  That might bode well for this.

But I agree with most of your points.  Price is going to be the death kneel, though, unless its way cheaper than $149.  From what we hear about the tech, that price makes absolutely no sense.  We'll have to wait and see as we get closer to release (I'd be surprised if we know before September), but I don't feel positive buzz or excitement can overcome a price that high enough to make this a big hit.

I'm curious on what the outside press is saying, though.  Somebody should make a thread . . . 

sorry, dp

sorry, tp

sorry, qp

Well, no one can say that MS didn't hit the ball outta the park with that one.

I can't really criticize MS; E3's a trade show for game companies, though it seems even the gaming press has a long way to go to admit that (I got really sick of all the petty anger spewing out from the net). I was fully expecting a LOT of focus on Kinect (and I expect the same with Move for Sony). Plus the so-called "hardcore" will forget about this the second Halo Reach, Fable 3, and or whatever hits store shelves. The price of the Kinect is going to be it's make-or-break

I agree overall, Microsoft are targeting the Wii audience perfectly, if they can execute it well, sales will rise. I never get these people that say "my mom likes this blah blah blah" it sounds like BS to me. But I showed my mum Your Shape, and she wants to play it!!!!!

Now if she would want to play it more than once, that I don't know. Microsoft needs to make sure the experiences they're creating are rock solid and keep people coming back.

I know when I have my neice and nephew over, they always play at least one of the sonic demos I've downloaded (Sonic tennis, Sonic racing, Sonic unleashed) ALWAYS. and that's in like the last 6 months. With Adventure, Dance Central, Kinectimals and Sonic Free Riders ... every time they come up I can see them having even more fun. Microsoft's previous casual attempts, Viva, Banjo, ect, never got them excited, it never worked. This however .. really does.

I must admit, I'm dissapointed with the lack of firsty party announcements. I don't own many 1st party games anyway, Fable III and Halo Reach are happening I know, but perhaps Halo Wars 2, a new L4D, a solid non natal RARE game or a 3rd party exclusive like splinter cell would have been nice.

I think it's key for us core gamers not to forget all the great 3rd party games coming up though, Dead RIsing II, Metal Gear Solid Rising (which I'm VERY interested in now, never knew MGS was like that!), Fallout New Vegas, Assassin's Creed Brotherhood, Sims 3, NFS: Hot Pursuit, Bulletstorm, Mortal Kombat 9 along with all the Arcade games and Reach, Fable III. I'll have plenty to play in the next year

But one more game would have been nice, hey E3 isn't over yet!