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Hmmm .... different people are naming different killer apps.  Some say the SW game, some say Kinectimals and some (like me) say Dance Central.  That might bode well for this.

But I agree with most of your points.  Price is going to be the death kneel, though, unless its way cheaper than $149.  From what we hear about the tech, that price makes absolutely no sense.  We'll have to wait and see as we get closer to release (I'd be surprised if we know before September), but I don't feel positive buzz or excitement can overcome a price that high enough to make this a big hit.

I'm curious on what the outside press is saying, though.  Somebody should make a thread . . .