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Forums - Gaming - Piracy costs the industry $118 BILLION in damages (PSP leads the pack)

Vertigo-X said:
leo-j said:

well it's just the top 20 most downloaded japanese games.. so it likely goes beyond that in damage


Read the post above yours.

 

In addition to it, I believe there are folks who download games multiple times. Since it is so easy, there's really no reason not to. As Matt said, the sales lost to piracy could be as low as  1/10th of the number of downloads and the revenue lost even lower.

But once you download it, you can burn it to as many discs as you want without redownloading.  I know this happens quite frequently where friends will sell burnt games for like $3-5 so that the other person doesn't have to worry about downloading anything or maybe their internet isn't good enough.

So really they could be the exact opposite and be as high as 10x the revenue lost.  They probably about cancel out so that the estimates are pretty close to target.



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How are they getting the total numbers for losses though?  Are they using Yen then converting to dollars?   Cause when I use US dollars, Dissidia is $220M not $335.



darthdevidem01 said:

That dissidia figure is SHOCKING.

5 MILLION!!!!

How many coppys it sold?



Slimebeast said:
darthdevidem01 said:

That dissidia figure is SHOCKING.

5 MILLION!!!!

How many coppys it sold?

Probably just shy of 2m iirc.



r505Matt said:

Well, for one it's not so simple, but yes, they do have all that information. Actually doing things with that information is not so easy though. For one, they have to go through ISPs to get names to attach to the IP addresses that they surely have. If the ISPs are not compliant, there really aren't any direct laws that can be used to get the names from the ISPs. There are kind of 'rules' for ISPs to follow, but they really don't have to. Still, most ISPs just don't want to deal with it, so they pass the names along.

But now there's another issue, the name attached to an IP isn't necessarily the person who illegally downloaded the content. This was the claim in a recent case that a woman was claiming her children were downloading music, so they shouldn't be dealing with her. 

However, lately there's a firm that has been pursuing downloads of specific movies, namely "The Hurt Locker" and "Far Cry" where the firm would say "Pay a fine of $1500, or go to court". They did this for something like 17,000 downloads of those 2 movies and a few others (with permission from the owners of the of works of course). 

17,000 alone was completely unprecedented, that alone accounts for some 500% increase or so in copyright lawsuits (the $1500 fine is essentially a settlement, and there's some way that they bypass some stuff to make it go smoothly and quickly).

Now imagine this on the 1 million people scale, or 20 millions. It's just unfeasible. It would be doable with about 100 firms pursuing it, and maybe that's the direction the world will take towards piracy eventually, but it's just not possible right now. This is all not even to mention the moral and ethical complications behind everything, but I don't want to go there.

Thanks for the response. Good stuff.

Well, I don't have a clue about how many copyright lawsuits there have been in total, but what I initially said was due to a personal experience while in undergrad a few years back here in the USA. A record company had targeted our school for a copyright lawsuit sting of sorts. I do believe the school's ISP worked with the record label. (our dean contacted us all and said the school would comply with them) They sent out letters to students who had apparently infringed enough (I forget if there was a cutoff $ amount) threatening a lawsuit but offering a potential settlement. The letter included a code and the student would then log onto the website and type in the code to see the dollar amount and the amount that the company was willing to settle for. I saw a jpeg sample of a letter with blacked out info and at full res could make out the code under the blacking, so I plugged it in to see the numbers. If I remember correctly they were claiming a $6k damage from that particular individual and wanted a $3k settlement. I had heard [unverifiably] that they were doing this from college to college that had popped on on their radar.

To me, that seems like a plan that could work. It isn't profitable to target individuals who haven't done much. And it may be hard to target sites (particularly torrent sites). But if you nail a bunch of the worst offending college students all in one fell swoop while alerting the rest that this is going on and of the potential fallout of such actions, then you can have a form of behavior modification take place on at least a 4 year wide age group of consumers. It may not be the best financial decision for any company in the short term, but it seems like for all the recent buzz about piracy and some companies blaming their woes on it etc, that these companies would actually do something. It isn't free to track this sort of stuff, so if you aren't using this information then it's at least costing someone something.



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jarrod said:
r505Matt said:

Misleading as always, each download does not equal a lost sale. But at the same time, that doesn't mean that if it were impossible to download, or significantly risky, that those 4.6 million PSP2 downloads wouldn't have accounted for at least 1 million more sales. Or maybe just 500,000 or maybe 2 million, we don't know. That's the problem with estimating the loses from piracy, there's really no way to tell with accuracy. 

Don't get me wrong, I still think piracy is bad and I don't like the justifications pirates come up with, but there's NO way that the industry missed out on 118 billion dollars from piracy. 

I think the inverse to this is that in a very real sense, ease of piracy has helped PSP as a platform and helped drive it's userbase.  If PSP weren't piratable then sure, some of those games likely would've sold more... but the platform itself also likely would've sold quite a bit less.

I'd say the same applies to a lot of consoles and handhelds since the late 90s, specifically PS1, Dreamcast, PS2, Xbox, DS and Wii, and in some regions more than others (hello Europe!).  GBA was heavily pirated, but it was also emulated since basically day one, and there I think you find a significant enough amount of people just played pirated games on their PCs rather than buy a system to hack or stick a card in, to the point where it probably wasn't something that actually drove userbase.

This is why I laugh when people talk about the PSP needing a price cut. If Sony slashes its margins on the hardware, where are they going to make up that money, exactly?

It makes Apple's business model look pretty clever. Their take of software sales does little more than cover costs, while the margins on hardware are huge. It's the exact opposite of Sony's traditional strategy of subsidizing hardware, but it's much harder to rip off hardware than it is to rip off software.

Of course, the publishers still get burned by piracy on iOS games.



"The worst part about these reviews is they are [subjective]--and their scores often depend on how drunk you got the media at a Street Fighter event."  — Mona Hamilton, Capcom Senior VP of Marketing
*Image indefinitely borrowed from BrainBoxLtd without his consent.

Wow, that sucks.  I'm sure the figures are overblown, but even at a fraction that's still huge for the limited number of games and sites that they actually reported on. 

When my wife worked for a game developer, she talked about how those designers would spend days and nights at the office, eating pizza from the night before for breakfast and not seeing their families because of the intense and rigorous schedules.  There were some designers who got really good royalties due to very popular titles.  But that was usually the exception.  When I applied there, one of their questions was "are you married?" because they discouraged people who were married from working there due to the schedules and lack of being able to return home many times, usually during crunch time.

Turnover was pretty high, as you can imagine.  I didn't get the job, for which my wife was VERY thankful.  I don't believe pirates, for whatever excuse they have, should take away the money that those people have worked so hard to earn. 



Tired of this bullshit I did the following:

1) I registered at a famous roms site.

2) Got to the DS section.

3) Carefully picked up a unpopular game (one that unlikely to change the download counter anytime soon).

4) Started downloading, the counter went up from 814 to 815.

5) Cancelled it and the counter is still at 815.

6) For fun I downloaded it again and cancelled it again (816)

That means that they track incomplete downloads.

Is it unfair to think that no one ever cancelled a 1 GB PSP game after 4 million downloads?



Satan said:

"You are for ever angry, all you care about is intelligence, but I repeat again that I would give away all this superstellar life, all the ranks and honours, simply to be transformed into the soul of a merchant's wife weighing eighteen stone and set candles at God's shrine."