eugene said:
They think it will have a DS like sales compared to the PSP. If you look at the Ds on a normal week, they typically out sell the psp 2-1 on a weekly basis and hold about a 75%-80% marketshare in handheld market. If you look at the Wii sales on a weekly basis, they typically hold a 40%-55%% marketshare on a weekly basis. This means Xbox 360+ PS3 > Wii. The best case scenerio in the future will be ratios of Nintendo with 50% xbox with 25% and PS3 with 25% marketshare. They get half. But in reality, as prices go down and muticonsole ownership goes up, it will probably be more like Wii-40% xbox-30% and PS3 -30% marketshare. It will be a very close 3 horse race in reality. |
Okay I have to go back to the original post here, cause there's this tiny flaw that has just been glaring out at me all day.
Why the percentages? What does that have to do with anything? It has been known since the very beginning that Wii has been opening a new market, so why would percentages of sales make it less likely for Wii to reach 100 million? It took the PS2 over 6 years to reach the 100 million mark. right now, the Wii has come close to selling 17 Million consoles this year, even with supply constraints. 17x6 = 102.
If you go back and look at the PS2 sales, the sales in the 2nd year were better than double that of the first year sales, and the 3rd year sales were even better than the 2nd year sales.
There's just no rational reason to believe that the Wii isn't capable of doing the same thing, or at the very least maintain its current rate of sales. It's like saying that TVs, microwaves and personal computers are fads. People, no matter what you have convinced yourself, this is not a tickle me elmo or a furby. Even if people ooh and aah over the Wii like they did over the Furby, with the furby, they reach a point when they get bored with it and they get rid of it, with the Wii, when they get bored with it, THEY CAN BUY A NEW GAME!!!
And then Eugene also has the percentages going from 50-25-25 to 40-30-30 and explains this as people who own a Wii getting a second console. Which just doesn't make any sense that this effect would ONLY be limited to people who own a Wii. Which sounds more likely. A guy who has bought a $250 console that is willing to buy a $400 console, or a guy who has bought a $400+ console and is willing to buy a $250 console. I thought teh casual Wii gamers barely even knew the other systems existed, so wouldn't they be less likely to be paying attention to the other consoles than the hardcore gamer on the 360 or PS3 that are actually paying attention to the Wii's growing library of games?
When people say the Wii is a novelty, I have to agree. But magnets are a novelty too, However, as we've developed them and grew to understand how they worked, we've been able to use them to do everything from move trains and sonic speed to charge electronic devices wirelessly. The Wii isn't a novelty that will fade away, after a year and still going strong, it's time people accepted that. What has changed is the dynamics of the market that developers now need to understand. The casual games need to be advertised through casual channels, the hardcore games need to be advertised through hardcore channels, Wii is a primarily casual market, but that doesn't mean a hardcore game can't survive on it provided it is done well and advertised properly. Also don't expect to judge a hardcore game's success on the same scale as a casual game.
Also, I agree, that Sleep catcher game sounds awesome.
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