rocketpig said:
On the software side, we'll see companies like Epic and id really flourish in the coming years. Their engines will become more and more of a staple to other developers who can't afford to spend two years and $5m on an engine alone. Over time, I expect the middleware providers to become more and more important as we see developers rely on them for texture packages, graphics engines, physics engines, sound packages, etc. Basically, to stem enormous developing costs, we'll see more devs rely on a "plug-and-develop" strategy to games where most of the back-end stuff is provided to them by someone else and they work on story, characters, and upper-end gameplay. |
I agree with this. It won't be a matter of hardware & software makers having to scale back their technology, but of having to adapt to the changing times. Over the last few years, it's become almost rare for a developer to write their own engine for a project, because it's becoming so impractical. That will start to become the case with all kinds of game assets.
10 years ago, people were predicting that things like generic texture and model libraries would become popular when we reached this point. I'm not sure that'll be the case, because most game worlds are too unique to use standard assets and the players will scrutinize carefully to find them. More likely it'll be in the form of middleware for easier design--for instance, a more sophisticated version of the creature creation software used in Spore, targetted to professional artists and animators. Procedural animation will make developers' lives a lot easier, since they won't have to hand animate or motion capture every single animation they need. Better 3D scanning techniques might come into play too--maybe you'll be able to scan someone's body and the software will intelligently generate a detailed, realistically moving model.
Once this stuff becomes widely available, game projects will become more manageable. Or at least budgets and teams won't have to swell much larger than they have already.
One last thing: anyone saying that graphics haven't been a major leap this generation over last is out of their mind.