I doubt it, as others have said I just don't think a racing game can win game of the year and there are already so many likely contenders from more likely genres and we aren't even half way through the year.

Its got a shot but the problem is that Racing Sims are a pretty niche market.

Also many racing fans will have been bored waiting and got Forza 2 or 3 to tide them over.

I personally feel it will win a "Best Exclusive Award" or "Best Graphics" just to placate the fanatics as frankly if anything comes out better than Red Dead Redemption in the next year I will be amazed !

I would say that Super Mario Galaxy 2 is going to win. I know its not a new IP or that sort, but reinvent a already superb game in a already used genre as platforming, its an achievement, really. I would consider this if I was a judge, but what the hell..I am just an ordinary guy!

My list:

Super Mario Galaxy
Read Dead Redemption
Mass Effect 2
Heavy Rain

Is it really that important for a game to win GOTY?

GT5 is one of my most awaited games of this gen, but I hardly see it winning any GOTY awards. It will be nice enough if the game is considered to be a good racing game, because that's what i'm hoping for in the end

If I had to predict a GOTY this year, probably my money would be either on ME2 or SMG2, but since we're only halfway through the year, it's too early to call it.