I disagree with you on two things

First of all, if the only reason to make games on the Wii is motion control, then why would Monster Hunter or Dragon Quest X be on the system? Fact is, the Wii has many other factors in its favour, including userbase, and a very good sales track record for both niche and big budget well advertised games, as well as low upfront costs.

You are also wrong in your claim that the PS2 had more marketshare than the Wii! You are saying that now the PS3 and 360 have motion controls, and between them they have >50% market share, right? Wrong! By the time Natal and move release, the Wii will have a userbase advantage of 80 million over the motion controls of the PS3 and 360. Very few companies will make games that are not enjoyable with last gen controls on the PS3 and 360, unless they can be done very cheap (ie Wii Sports clones or ports of years old Wii games. I am waiting until E3 to be certain, but as of this moment, neither Sony nor MS have any games that will push significant amounts of hardware for their motion control devices.

that's not what i stated..look at it again, the reference was last generation :

ps2, the game cube, and the xbox360 i was talking about last generation even though the PS2 Had the largest Market share in it's generation like the Wii does this generation sony did not have a strong 1st party I was not talking about the PS2 having more market share than the Wii or that the PS3 or the xbox360 combined = 50% of the market. no what i was talking about even though the Wii has byfar the largest share of the market for game console's among these new machines. the ps3 and the xbox360 would also be very viable choices for motion controlled 3rd party game's now since they two offer motion controlled option's.

as for your take on sony not having any software to push their motion control's. IF anything Sony 1st and 2nd party is doing good quality software this generation, now you may disagree with that an that's fine but to me this generation Sony's 1st party and 2nd party offering's for their system has been top notch.

people had doubt Even Sony if people wanted motion controlled game's and Nintendo proved that they did.

at this point I think it's less about what platform of motion controll's as it is about the software to go along with it.

Sony's 1st and 2nd party are putting out great game's in my opinion and with augument reality due to the EYETOY being able to add another layer to motion controll's that is just not there on the Wii.due to the Eyetoy having that extra function added that's not in Wii motion game's.

@ bolded - only if people buy Move/Natal, if they don't then they are NOT viable options.

I acknowledge that both MS and Sony have some very good developers, who MAY be working on good move/natal software. Or they may not. We shall have to wait till E3 to find out. You are saying that move and natal will deffinately suceed, I am saying they might and they might not. Which do you think is a more reasonable preposition?

My userbase argument seems to have been missed. Whilst you are right that the PS360 have enough marketshare to warrant last gen controlled games being made, it is entirely possible that move and natal will not have enough of an install base to garner much support - a developer has the choice between making a game for the 80 million + Wii userbase, or the miniscule initial move/natal userbase

I see the death of exclusives as a temporary situation. Especially given the movement towards physical interaction in videogames. The options of input methods now allows different consoles to best serve different game types, allowing us to see third parties take advantage of those inputs in different ways. This gen's HD multiplat practice has been a direct result of rising costs. I think next gen will see multiple control schemes push third party developement in the other direction.

It also doesn't hurt that thanks to the Wii's success, next gen third parties will actually think about Nintendo.

here again, your saying that there will not be much of a driver for motion controll's on the xbox360 or the PS3 because their late to the party?and the Wii will have too much of a lead to matter, but on the same token the ps3 is the last place system but yet is getting more support over anyother 3rd place system has ever recieved.

you could argue but the ps3 and the xbox360 does not deserve that kind of support and that that support need's to go to the Wii first and foremost because it's the leader from 3rd party developer's, but that does not change the fact that both of the other system's are getting that kind of support.

 even though their late does not mean they will by no mean's not be able to gather enough fanbase for motion controll's for 3rd party's to make game's for their motion controll's. How many would they have to sell inorder for 3rd party's to consider making a motion controll game for xbox360 or ps3 motion controll's? 5 million, 10 million? both the xbox360 and the PS3 are far from being the leader but yet they are getting the main majority of the 3rd party support.

Just like Nintendo 1st and 2nd party developer's indie 3rd party developer's have a choice on what type of game's they want to make.

since now 3rd party developer's could make a motion controll game's that was Wii only to be ported to the PS3 or the xbox360 because they could also have sale's on their platform also. Unless Nintendo want's to keep them Exclusive they may have to pay 3rd party's, they may not but that's just the way it goes.

I am not claiming that Sony and MS are incapable of achieving this, I am just saying that they face a lot of obstacles, and that currently, they haven't announced much in the way of getting around these. But as I said before, I'm waiting for E3 before I predict the chances of these things succeding.

your saying:

@scottie

a developer has the choice between making a game for the 80 million + Wii userbase,

or

the miniscule initial move/natal userbase

what do you think is a miniscule initial move/natal userbase?