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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - To those who don't understand my 60 million in 2008 prediction

binary solo on 22 November 2012

Did anyone in, say, 2009 have the balls to predict Wii would struggle to make 100 million? Most people thought Wii would blow past PS1 no problem, and many thought Wii would give PS2 a run, and in way less time on the market. 120 million was the figure a lot of people thought Wii would make without much doubt.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

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DanneSandin on 22 November 2012
Mummelmann said:
DanneSandin said:
Mummelmann said:
 


Yes, he basically got one right and everyone started worshipping him (and Sean Maelstrom). JL's claims were always ridiculous, as were Avinash's. You'll notice that they're both gone from the site since things started going south with the Wii sales and there are a lot of members in here who had and still have predictions that are a lot better and pretty damn accurate.

Honestly though, I miss JL, not because I agreed with his views or predictions btu because he represents a big and bygone era on Vgchartz when the boards were blazing with gaming and sales related discussions and he is probablt the most outgoing and nest-stirring member we ever had.

We need a new John Lucas, pronto!

PS: Am I a little ashamed of some of my earlier posts on this site? Oh yes. But at least I stay put and own up to them.

Haha most of his predictions were crazy for sure! 200 MILLION Wii's?! gawd damn!!

But I think we should start to see some more predictions as soon as we know more of PS720. As for now, I've predicted Wii U will sell a bare minimum of 50m units (I revized it from 40m) and it'll max out in 120m...

The Wii U is a tricky thing to predict, really tricky. I think I've said that it should reach at least 75 million, I still believe it could but that it will fall quite a bit short of the Wii lifetime. The 8th generation will see something uniqe, I think; less consoles sold than the previous gen, for the first time in history. Mainly due to production/development efforts being somewhat scaled back for economic reasons and for a more tangible production line for a halting and unstable market in the West (setting up massive manufacturing efforts for a market that could plummet or collapse entirely is too risky in 2012-2013), the continuing fall of home console popularity in Japan and the development/hardware cycles going more rapidly forwards, effectively forcing the market to adapt and refresh.

Overall, I predict a close race between the xbox, playstation and nintendo of the 8th generation, who will win is a complete toss-up and impossible to say at this point.

Hey, I JUST made a prediction thread by myself regarding 8th gen :D http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=150321&page=1#



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

JGarret on 22 November 2012

Heh, I take it you saw the link I posted when I was talking to kitler and superchunk about the old times here.

That´s right, Mummelmann, we need a new John Lucas!



zuvuyeay on 22 November 2012

what reasons are there for the WiiU out selling the Wii,i'd be quite interested to know what they might be,120m seems a long way away for the WiiU from here



                                                                                                                                        Above & Beyond

   

DanneSandin on 22 November 2012
zuvuyeay said:
what reasons are there for the WiiU out selling the Wii,i'd be quite interested to know what they might be,120m seems a long way away for the WiiU from here

I figure that if all 3 consoles will get the same amount of 3rd party support with only some graphical differences Wii U will sell better. Why? Because Xbox and PlayStation thrive's on 3rd party support. They don't have the same system sellers as Nintendo does, so take away the 3rd party advantage, what are you left with? 1st party games. And that's where Nintendo excel!



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

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zuvuyeay on 22 November 2012
DanneSandin said:
zuvuyeay said:
what reasons are there for the WiiU out selling the Wii,i'd be quite interested to know what they might be,120m seems a long way away for the WiiU from here

I figure that if all 3 consoles will get the same amount of 3rd party support with only some graphical differences Wii U will sell better. Why? Because Xbox and PlayStation thrive's on 3rd party support. They don't have the same system sellers as Nintendo does, so take away the 3rd party advantage, what are you left with? 1st party games. And that's where Nintendo excel!


that has to be offset by the WiiU having the casual explosion of the Wii though,which it may 

no nintendo console(lounge) has sold more than the Wii so i see no reason why the WiiU will as of right now,unless china/india/brasil/russia etc suddenly explode into the console markets then of course they will all sell better than previous

maybe if sony don't make it to the PS4 but other than that i don't see a reason yet why the WiiU will break 100m let alone 120m



                                                                                                                                        Above & Beyond

   

DanneSandin on 22 November 2012
zuvuyeay said:
DanneSandin said:
zuvuyeay said:
what reasons are there for the WiiU out selling the Wii,i'd be quite interested to know what they might be,120m seems a long way away for the WiiU from here

I figure that if all 3 consoles will get the same amount of 3rd party support with only some graphical differences Wii U will sell better. Why? Because Xbox and PlayStation thrive's on 3rd party support. They don't have the same system sellers as Nintendo does, so take away the 3rd party advantage, what are you left with? 1st party games. And that's where Nintendo excel!


that has to be offset by the WiiU having the casual explosion of the Wii though,which it may 

no nintendo console(lounge) has sold more than the Wii so i see no reason why the WiiU will as of right now,unless china/india/brasil/russia etc suddenly explode into the console markets then of course they will all sell better than previous

maybe if sony don't make it to the PS4 but other than that i don't see a reason yet why the WiiU will break 100m let alone 120m

Considering that no console had even come close to selling 100 million units before playstation I don't really see that as a problem... Wii, PS3 and xbox has sold close to 240 million units together. The generation before that sold close to 200 million. So I don't think the drop from gen 7 to gen 8 to be more than 25million consoles, that would mean that if PS4 and xbox720 both sold 50million each Wii U would sell 120m...



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

zuvuyeay on 22 November 2012
DanneSandin said:
zuvuyeay said:
DanneSandin said:
zuvuyeay said:
what reasons are there for the WiiU out selling the Wii,i'd be quite interested to know what they might be,120m seems a long way away for the WiiU from here

I figure that if all 3 consoles will get the same amount of 3rd party support with only some graphical differences Wii U will sell better. Why? Because Xbox and PlayStation thrive's on 3rd party support. They don't have the same system sellers as Nintendo does, so take away the 3rd party advantage, what are you left with? 1st party games. And that's where Nintendo excel!


that has to be offset by the WiiU having the casual explosion of the Wii though,which it may 

no nintendo console(lounge) has sold more than the Wii so i see no reason why the WiiU will as of right now,unless china/india/brasil/russia etc suddenly explode into the console markets then of course they will all sell better than previous

maybe if sony don't make it to the PS4 but other than that i don't see a reason yet why the WiiU will break 100m let alone 120m

Considering that no console had even come close to selling 100 million units before playstation I don't really see that as a problem... Wii, PS3 and xbox has sold close to 240 million units together. The generation before that sold close to 200 million. So I don't think the drop from gen 7 to gen 8 to be more than 25million consoles, that would mean that if PS4 and xbox720 both sold 50million each Wii U would sell 120m...

yep well it's hard to predict with all the new techs eating into consoles market not that i am such a big believer in that as i think online/internet/social interaction can help consoles be very popular,nintendo will be fine whatever happens,i have a feeling microsoft will be leading becasue of their power in the american market which might effect nintendo this time round,looks bad for sony either way,i think everyone needs to be successful in some kind of paid sub in the future



                                                                                                                                        Above & Beyond

   

DanneSandin on 22 November 2012
zuvuyeay said:
DanneSandin said:

Considering that no console had even come close to selling 100 million units before playstation I don't really see that as a problem... Wii, PS3 and xbox has sold close to 240 million units together. The generation before that sold close to 200 million. So I don't think the drop from gen 7 to gen 8 to be more than 25million consoles, that would mean that if PS4 and xbox720 both sold 50million each Wii U would sell 120m...

yep well it's hard to predict with all the new techs eating into consoles market not that i am such a big believer in that as i think online/internet/social interaction can help consoles be very popular,nintendo will be fine whatever happens,i have a feeling microsoft will be leading becasue of their power in the american market which might effect nintendo this time round,looks bad for sony either way,i think everyone needs to be successful in some kind of paid sub in the future

haha yes, it sure is hard making predictions when we don't even know how ps4 and x3ox will be like!! Right now I'm just going by rumors and current events (like sony's poor financial situation). I don't believe that CORE gaming will be effected by tablets and smart phones. It might even expand the market. Say you pick up a smart phone at the age of 10 and play angry birds and whatnot... In 5 years time you might have evolved into a core gamer, right? ^^

I also think that Microsoft might take the lead. I actually think they might be in a better position selling 120m console than Nintendo. All I know is that PS4 probably won't reach those kind of numbers...



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.

IIIIITHE1IIIII on 22 November 2012
runqvist said:
Kenology said:
Why even necro this?

Because it was linked on some discussion and I just read the opening post. :P


Just so you know, it is actually a bannable offense to bump old threads without good reasons. No idea why, but it is.