I thought you had said that, but I couldn't relocate that quote. So you think that the PS2 can have sales this year up to EQUAL to last year's? I thought you had admitted that it was a console in decline!

Yeah, but still: If the PS3 becomes more attractive to people who are currently buying PS2s, it will become a routine "up-sell".  Thus decreasing PS2 hardware sales. 

The main thrust of my posts is that you are simultaneously accusing A_T of wild exaggeration (which is true) while you yourself are also wildly exaggerating. (Hundreds of games for nothing? Where do you shop? PS2 brand new for nothing? Only if the DS sells for nothing as well.)

The PS2 has the longest tail since the NES but that doesn't mean it's "generation hopping".

Read, read and then READ my posts again! This is getting to be like banging my head against a wall.

"So you think that the PS2 can have sales this year up to EQUAL to last year's? I thought you had admitted that it was a console in decline! "

Its not about what I think, its more about whats happening. Look at the numbers. Its selling the same as last year. You've already changed your prediction from 10m to 15m in the last day! Maybe you might find another 50% tommorow & you'll think 22.5 million?

"Yeah, but still: If the PS3 becomes more attractive to people who are currently buying PS2s, it will become a routine "up-sell".  Thus decreasing PS2 hardware sales " 

Its not about "Percieved attractivness"!!!!!!!!! They are completely different products and currently fullfilling completely different places in the market. The PS3 full stop isnt ever going to become a more attractive prospect than something 3 or 4 times cheaper. If I have 10k to buy a car it doesnt matter how attractive a Lamborghini is.

"The main thrust of my posts is that you are simultaneously accusing A_T of wild exaggeration (which is true) while you yourself are also wildly exaggerating. " 

Yes I get your "thrust". Im really NOT exageratting anything, it says a lot more about you than me that you say the PS2 will sell 10 million more units from Jan 1st '08, then add 5 million a few posts later, you're nearly at the point where you're agreeing with what I originally said!!!

As we stand the PS2 is heading straight for similar numbers to last year. Nothing significant has changed in the last 12 months, and thus the numbers are still exactly the same.

 

Read, read, READ my posts as well.

I said that 10m is a reasonable estimate. I said that 15m is a reasonable estimate. These two statements are not mutually exclusive. Maybe I was unclear about that. If so, let this be the clarification: 10m was not my prediction, it was A_T's; I just said that it was reasonable. I stand by that assessment. 15m was sort of a prediction, but not a serious one, just an example I threw out of what might be another (perhaps more probable) reasonable guess. If you want to hold me to that number, whatever. It's definitely not going to go up to 20m, I can tell you that much.

We have not definitively seen this year's sales plateau for the systems. It is too soon after the spike to make a judgement. See below.

The car analogy is a joke. And I never said that the PS3 would suddenly become more attractive than the PS2 period, I said it would become more attractive COMPARED TO IN 2007.

You just used three exclamation points. Your posts are FULL of exaggerations and the paragraph in which you just said you weren't exaggerating is no exception. Aside from the fact that you're wrong about me changing my numbers, 15m =/= "almost" 30m.

"Nothing significant has changed in the last 12 months"? Maybe the PS3 going from almost no games to a decent lineup with more on the way? Maybe Wii production being massively increased which will no doubt eat into the bargain-hunter market you say (correctly) that the PS2 is exploiting? (Yes, even though the Wii is still twice the price!)

IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY THAT THE PS2 IS ON TRACK FOR 2008=2007 SALES. Especially when PS2 sales last week were lower than [edit: same time last year]. So no, the numbers aren't "exactly the same".
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=All&cons2=PS2&reg2=All&cons3=PS2&reg3=All&start=39089&end=39467
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS2&reg2=America&cons3=PS2&reg3=Total+Other&start=39089&end=39467

Hey -- it is starting to feel like beating one's head against a wall.

As usual you're telling me things that may happen are more important than what IS happening. Its like a couple of posts above where you're telling me my thoughts are wild exagerations in the same post as asking me what the actual numbers are. Ridiculous! Night night.

Danny355 said: As usual you're telling me things that may happen are more important than what IS happening. Its like a couple of posts above where you're telling me my thoughts are wild exagerations in the same post as asking me what the actual numbers are. Ridiculous! Night night.

I don't understand what you mean by this.  Things that MAY happen are fundamental to even the most basic understanding of predicting future events.  Besides which, what IS happening is not what you are claiming is happening.  (Lower-than-2007 PS2 sales.)

The fact that I missed your 2007 number does not discredit my arguments. 

As usual, you don't actually address the logical arguments I am making.  Ridiculous!  Good morning. 

@ Avinash_Tyagi

Your predictions are just too unreasonable to even reply back to seriously, cause that has to be a joke right? By 2015, the PlayStation family could easily be close to 300 million or more, cuz by then, the PSP2 will be out, and there will definetly be another PlayStation out. And it doesn't even make any sense. Why not give a number, rather than a benchmark, because you really don't know what's going to happen in the next seven years. We might actually be able to fit two new PSPs in there, with the new PlayStation, and considering that the PS3 and PSP will likely push the PS brand to 250-260 million this year, and up to 300 by the end of 2010, you could be looking at saying the Wii will sell upwards of 400 million consoles by the end of 2015 which just isn't happening.

Haha sorry but "The PS2 wont sell more than 10 million, but um, duh, how many did it sell last year?" doesnt just discredit, it means its time to shut the hell up as well.

DMeisterJ said: @ Avinash_Tyagi Your predictions are just too unreasonable to even reply back to seriously, cause that has to be a joke right? By 2015, the PlayStation family could easily be close to 300 million or more, cuz by then, the PSP2 will be out, and there will definetly be another PlayStation out. And it doesn't even make any sense. Why not give a number, rather than a benchmark, because you really don't know what's going to happen in the next seven years. We might actually be able to fit two new PSPs in there, with the new PlayStation, and considering that the PS3 and PSP will likely push the PS brand to 250-260 million this year, and up to 300 by the end of 2010, you could be looking at saying the Wii will sell upwards of 400 million consoles by the end of 2015 which just isn't happening.

I think we're discussing consoles only for that figure, at least I am. I think it would be a miricle if the PS 1,2 +3 hasnt sold 300m by the end of 2015. They're currently up to 225m and they sold 17 million playstations last year.

and danny talks about what he thinks may happen with wii instead of what IS happening

what IS happening is that it is trending higher than ps2 and ds and it is still SUPPLY CONSTRAINED

it would be trending even HIGHER compared to those if there were more supply

Danny355 said: Haha sorry but "The PS2 wont sell more than 10 million, but um, duh, how many did it sell last year?" doesnt just discredit, it means its time to shut the hell up as well.

Obviously you've run out of actual counterarguments and are now resorting to meaningless personal attacks. Unfortuantely for you, I don't easily rise to that bait. Come back when you have something to say. Until then, "shut the hell up".