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Forums - Sales - Sony Projecting 15m PS3s for FY 3/2011, 35.7m PS3s Shipped LTD

joeorc on 13 May 2010
makingmusic476 said:
Seihyouken said:
RageBot said:
Source, i'm sorry, but if Sony will cut the price to 200$ this year, they will ship a LOT more than 15 million units in this FY.

Not really. Last fiscal year Sony sold 13 million PS3s. This was a year with a $100 price cut and exclusives releases like Uncharted 2, God of War III, and Final Fantasy XIII in Japan. $199.99 seems like a big drop, but it's not any bigger than the drop last year and Gran Turismo 5 will sell a ton of systems, but not so many that it would amount to the 2 million systems more that Sony plans to ship this year over last.

Dropping to $199 is a bigger deal because it's a 33% drop versus a 25% drop.  If it were $249 to $199 I could see it having less of an impact than the drop to $299, but going straight from $299 to $199 would be pretty big.

But I don't think they're going to do that.  There will definitely be a stepping stone between $299 and $199.

in my Opinion my guess if anything the drop in price may go something like this:

$279.00 / in 2011

$249.00/ in 2012

$200.00/ in 2013



I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.

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Ail on 14 May 2010
TheSource said:

No, I normalized the X360 data to end in March - I'm just saying technically it isn't a fiscal year for Microsoft.

Ail check out the Dec 09 vs. Dec 08 comparison though, because thats where 45%-50% of the sw will be sold this year - 47m vs. 41m I think, even with the base bigger and hw shipments in that quarter up by 2m.

We'll probably have something like this for PS3 sw:

Q1    Q2       Q3      Q4  (Q3 = Oct-Dec 10')

22m / 20m / 53m / 25m

That is pretty good, but it won't be up a whole lot from last year.

Those numbers do sound reasonnable.

Now the question is whether they will start bundling more heavily this year or not.

Personally I'm not convinced they will drop the price by 100$ again but 50$ and a game bundled is possible ( and a game bundled with Move too).

 

Those two combined could add 7 to 10 million software units so 130 million units might be in the realm of the possible...



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

DM235 on 14 May 2010

I'll add what I posted in the other thread (http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=24847), since the conversation here is a lot more active.

I don't see Sony dropping their price at all, because they need to start making money on the hardware.

I think their estimate is unrealistic. The only way I could see them meeting their forecast is if they drop the price by $100 (which would cost them hundreds of millions of dollars), if Move is a big success and Natal / 360 Slim launch is a bust. That's a lot of ifs.

I hope they're not expecting GT5 / LBP2 / Move to increase sales without a price cut?

Personally I see sales staying at 13.0m for next year.

Another take on this would be to look at total consoles sold in a given year. For 2009, we have 47.21m sold. For 2010, we have 43.53m sold. If 360 sales are 10m in 2011 (and I only see this happening if Natal is huge), then we would have 43m sold. I don't find it probable that total sales would not drop this late in the generation.

I am looking forward to E3 to see if they have some huge announcement to prove me wrong.



AkibaFan on 16 May 2010

tht will be a hard aim, no 2nd or 3rd plce console hs shipped tht high



Kasz216 on 16 May 2010
Mummelmann said:
OP: Didn't you, in a thread about a week or so ago, say that all hardware for this gen has peaked and that you expected all software to be slightly down? What made you change your mind now?

Actually I'm pretty sure he said "Hardware this generation has peaked" as in total consoles sold...

That Wii and 360 had peaked and that PS3 may or may not have peaked but it was irrelevent considering the first two already have.